Engineering Graduate Education and Research (1985) / Chapter Skim
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3 Supply and Demand
3 Supply and Demand
Pages 17-57
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From page 17... ...
Other projections are essentially opinion polls concerning the future and usually carmot retain their validity for more than a year or so. The most comprehensive recent study of the scientist/engineer labor force was published by the National Science Foundation in 1984.64 This study, which made projections based on various scenarios of economic growth, foresaw a general balance between supply and demand for engineers through 1987, with the exception of three fields: aeronautical/astronautical engineers, computer specialists, and electrical/electronic engineers.
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From page 18... ...
" Supply of Ph.D.s The "supply" of engineers is easier to quantify than is "demand," at least for four or five years into the future, because students presently enrolled in school con be counted. The number of engineering graduates with bachelor's degrees can be roughly predicted four years hence on the basis of freshman enrollments in the current year, although major changes in students' perceptions of future employment prospects can upset these predictions if the dropout rate changes significantly.
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From page 19... ...
For example, the figure of 13,419 continuing doctoral students in the fall of 1983 is estimated by taking the total enrollment in fall 1982 {16,442 students) and subtracting from that the total number of doctoral degrees awarded during the academic year 1982-1983 3,023 degrees)
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From page 20... ...
SOURCES: Enrollment data: Engineenng and Technology Enrollments 1New York: Engineering Manpower Commission, various yearsl. Degree data: Engineenng and Technology Degrees (New York: Engineering Manpower Commission, various years)
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From page 21... ...
~ The second explanation of the apparent anomaly is more powerful than the first: the calculations ~ Table 4 only allow for the new students who enter in the fall term of each year. New doctoral students also enter during the winter and spring terms, and there is no way to enumerate these from the available data.
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From page 22... ...
, . 1970 1975 1~0 YEAR 1985 1990 FIGURE 6 Engineering doctoral degrees per year and estimated new doctoral students per year (running 3-year average!
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From page 23... ...
production of the country is rising markedly, the average annual number available for academic employment in the near future is only about 100 more than it was during the 1970s, when the engineering educational establishment was smaller than it is today. It was during the late 1970s and early 1980s that the shortage of engineering faculty developed, with the result that engineering schools reported 1,400 vacant faculty positions in 1982 nationwide.23 The question is whether the future supply will be enough to meet the needs of educational institutions and industry simultaneously.
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From page 24... ...
In 1977-1978 the relative scores were as follows: GRE (Quan~tativeJ Mathematical Sciences ~ · . engmeer~ng Physical Sciences Life Sciences Health Professions Basic Social Sciences Arts and Humanities Applied Social Sciences Education 669 657 636 559 jl7 514 497 472 449 In verbal aptitude GRE scores, engineers consistently rank near the bottom.
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From page 25... ...
The low scores on the GRE verbal scale may be a measure of the degree of difficulty and frustration many engineering students experience later with respect to career advancement. This situation cannot be expected to change unless steps are taken to improve students' communication skills, or unless engineering succeeds In drawing a larger share of high-scoring verbal applicants.
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From page 26... ...
In Table 6, then, it is assumed that 100 percent of those who were planning to go into postdoctoral study would eventually enter academic employment and that 14 percent of those who were "seeking employment" would also enter academic employment. These proportions were used throughout the entire 1960-1982 span in Table 6 although they are actually known for only 1981, and then only for a sample of the total population.
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From page 27... ...
27 C~ o~ C~ oo 1 o G~ ._ CO P~ o ._ C~ C~ ~o C~ o CC C)
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From page 28... ...
. mated,, portion of gable 3 to project an estimaled supply of 1~080 to 1~300 doctoral engineers available snugly for academic employment the period 1984-1988.
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From page 29... ...
. Summary Report 1982: Doctorate Recipients From United States Universities Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1983)
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From page 30... ...
Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female American Indian 3 - -- - -3 Asian 69 3 1686 545 20806 29 Black 9 - 11- 33 -So Hispanic 21 1 112 50 285 5 White 945 69 805 318 81,350 82 Other and unknown 44 1 121 of 1221 8 1091 74 282 14 997 31 2.52n 124 SOURCE: National Research Council, Survey of Earned Doctorates, Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel, Doctorate Records File.
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From page 31... ...
Thelatter number corresponds closely with the number of 18,000 faculty reported for all U.S. engineering schools in the fall 1981 survey of the Engineering College Faculty Shortage Project.20 If the student:faculty ratio of 1975-1976 were to have been restored, approximately 6,750 additional faculty members would have been needed in 1981-1982.
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From page 32... ...
Tech. Nebraska Northeastem Northwestem Ohio State Oregon State Penn State Pittsburgh Polytechnic Inst.
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From page 33... ...
Faculty: Engineenng College Research and Graduate Study, Engineenng Education, March 1977; Engineenng College Research and Graduate Study, Engineenng Education, March 1983. productivity and to handle the increased student loads without requiring new faculty.
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From page 34... ...
34 ENGINEERING GRADUATE EDUCATION AND RESEARCH TABLE 12 Comparison of Engineering Student: Faculty Ratios, 1975-1976 and 1981-1982 1975-1976 1981-1982 Student enrollment, 51 large schools Full-time undergraduate 112,512 175,732 Full-time graduate 22,994 27,677 Total 135,506 203,409 Full-time faculty (professorial ranks) 7, 724 8,466 Raw student:faculty ratio 17.5 24.0 291 schools 286 schools Total enrollment Pull-time undergraduate 231,379 387,577 Full-time graduate 37,285 47,772 Total 268, 664 435,349 Percent of total, for 51 large schools 50.4 46.7 Estimated total faculty, all schools 1~,320 18,130 Estimated faculty needed to restore 1975-1976 ratio - 24,880 Estimated 1981-1982 faculty shortfall - 6, 750 partly to the inability of universities to provide sufficient funds to keep up with facilities needs, both for space and for equipment.
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From page 35... ...
Table 13 shows the distribution of faculty in the professorial ranks by age, as provided by an "AAES/ASEE Survey."20 Since the survey included 168 schools that responded, the distribution has been extrapolated on a pro rata basis to include the entire estimated population of 18,130 faculty for 286 schools, derived from Table 12. An estimated number of about 3,600 faculty are in the 56 to 65 age group, and most of them can be expected to retire In the next 10 years.
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From page 36... ...
In 1981 the Engineering College Faculty Shortage Project reported that 266 faculty went from academia to industry and 251 went the other way, based upon responses from engineering deans.20 In 1982, 227 went from academia to industry, and 252 went in the opposite direction.23 In the present study, the flows are assumed to be in balance.
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From page 37... ...
Several remarked that they were anxious to recruit people of the very highest quality, and two mentioned that they seek graduates from the top decile of the graduating cohort, either at the bachelor level or doctoral level. The 1984 average monthly starting salaries reported by these respondents were as follows:
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From page 38... ...
graduates, might give some insight into the demand for Ph.D.s by industrial TABLE 14 Average Monthly Salary Offers act New F.n~rint".erin~ Degree Candidates, 1965-1984 , ~_ c~ B.S. Candidates Year Chem.
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From page 39... ...
Average monthly salary offers to new engineering degree candidates at the bachelor's and doctor's levels for 1965 through March 1984 are given in Table 14. The table only shows offers for chemical engineering, civil engineering, electrical and computer engineering, and mech~nical engineering because these are the only engineering categories reported by CPC at the doctoral level.
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From page 40... ...
) 1965 1970 1975 YEAR 1980 1985 FIGURE 9 Average monthly salary offers to new civil engineering degree candidates.
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From page 41... ...
) 1 1 1 1965 1970 1975 YEAR / SLOPE - S140 ~ HO Ye it' 1980 1985 FIGURE 11 Average monthly salary offers to new mechanical engineering degree candidates.
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From page 42... ...
ENGR. 1 l 1 1965 1970 1975 YEAR 1980 1985 FIGURE 12 Comparison of average monthly salary offers to new B.S.
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From page 43... ...
) / 1965 1970 1975 YEAR 1980 1985 FIGURE 14 Average monthly salary offers to new civil engineering degree candidates (data adjusted by Consumer Price Index to reflect constant 1967 dollars I
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From page 44... ...
) 1965 1970 1975 YEAR 1980 1985 FIGURE 15 Average monthly salary offers to new electrical and computer engineering degree candidates [data adjusted by Consumer Price Index to reflect constant 1967 dollars)
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From page 45... ...
. SOURCE: Data from Engineering Manpower Commission.
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From page 46... ...
The same reporter compares the postgraduation plans of the 1980 graduates with their actual status one year later: Of those who had dlefinite postgraduation employment plans in 1980 for going into industry, 97 percent were actually in industrial employment one year later, whether they were engineering graduates or physical sciences graduates. However, of those who were "seeking employment" in 1980, their actual status one year later was as follows: Physical EngineenngSciences Actual Status, 1981Ph.D.sPla.D.s Academic employment14.0%7.8% Industrial employment82.944.3 Government employment0.76.4 Other employment2.44.6 Postdoctoral study0.022.4 Not employed0.014.5 100.0100.0 The conclusion to be drawn is that industry hires about equal proportions of Ph.D.s ~ engineering and in the physical sciences but that engineers appear to have a slight edge in attractiveness to industry; as shown above, O percent of the engineers seeking employment in 1980 were, one year later, in either the "riot employed" or "postdoctoral study" category.
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From page 47... ...
Under the assumption that approximately half of the foreign nationals on temporary visas would remain in the United States, significant scarcities were projected for petroleum engineering and the earth/environmental sciences. However, under the alternate assumption that none of the students on temporary visas would remain in the United States, scarcities of 10 percent or more were projected for mathematics/computer science, chemistry, earth/ environmental science, chemical engineering, nuclear engineering, petroleum engineering, mining engineering, and materials science.25 The matters of "shortage" and "supply and demand" are controversial.
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From page 48... ...
Mary actions on many fronts are needed: universities must improve faculty salaries as well as their base of facilities, equipment, and support; industry needs to become involved in many ways, some of them financial; and a major fellowship program is needed to draw more of the top decile of B.S. graduates into doctoral study.
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From page 49... ...
programs and also would make some allowance for those who would qualify for fellowships but who might have gone to doctoral study anyway, with or without a fellowship. A fellowship program of this type undoubtedly will have a combination of federal and industrial support Within the last two years, for example, the American Electronics Association {AEA)
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From page 50... ...
A few of the industrially sponsored fellowships cover up to five years of support. If the fellowship stipend is 50 percent of starting salaries for B.S.
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From page 51... ...
If new technologies can somehow permit handling larger numbers of students with the current number of faculty and, of course, with no loss of quality, then an increase in engineering doctoral output would not be needed. The simplest and most obvious measure of productivity is the student:faculty ratio, and the simplest way to increase this ratio is by grouping students in large classes, with the majority of student-faculty contact provided by teaching assistants iTAs)
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From page 52... ...
; provision usually is made for a "talk-back" system, probably through leased telephone lines; there must be a "courier" to carry homework and examinations back and forth; and additional office personnel are required to coordinate the system. Instruction by videotape resembles that by simultaneous "live" telecast, with the exception, of course, that the students cannot ask questions of the professor during class.
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From page 53... ...
It has become virtually impossible to design very large scale integrated circuits without computers, and structural analysis has been completely revolutionized by finite element analysis. New process plants are controlled by units that have computers at their hearts, and all of manufacturing is being revolutionized by robotics ~d computer-controlled methods.
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From page 54... ...
26] One aspect of the cost of computers that has surprised and dismayed many engineering schools is that associated with technical support personnel and software maintenance.
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From page 55... ...
3. About one-third of new engineering Ph.D.s have entered academic employment in recent years.
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From page 56... ...
11. The supply of engineering Ph.D.s for academic employment is short enough that universities experience distress in faculty recruiting,
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From page 57... ...
c. Industry, in addition to providing fellowships, should increase its financial support for engineering education, giving state-of-the-art equipment, providing funding for laboratory renovations, increasing its support for university research, and providing grants to help support departmental expense such as for computers, travel, and student projects.
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