Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty Interim Report 1, Evaluation of 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations (1997) / Chapter Skim
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5. RECOMMENDATION FOR TITLE I ALLOCATIONS
5. RECOMMENDATION FOR TITLE I ALLOCATIONS
Pages 36-40
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From page 36... ...
The major changes in the distribution of children in poverty that have occurred since the 1990 census make the use of those estimates for current allocations highly problematic. There was a substantial increase in the number of children in poverty between 1989 and 1993, and there is clear evidence that the geographic distribution of such children has changed markedly.
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From page 37... ...
However, other evaluations of the county estimates, as well as the form of the model, raise concern. In general, the panel believes that the county-level model and resulting estimates have not yet been sufficiently evaluated, especially in comparison with alternative models, for use without modification for such an important purpose as allocating funds under Title I
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From page 38... ...
The panel recommends the following precise form of averaging: take the average of the poverty rates for school-age children (i.e., related children aged 517) that are obtained from the census and from the model-based estimates for a given county and multiply this average rate by the Census Bureau's 1994 population estimate of the number of children aged 5-17 in that county as adjusted to represent related children aged 5-17 (see Appendix D)
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From page 39... ...
For example, the estimates may be weighted inversely proportional to their mean square errors in order to produce an overall estimate with minimum mean square error.) In order to produce such weighted estimates, it is necessary to know the relative quality of the individual estimates.
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From page 40... ...
In other words, the 1993 Puerto Rico estimate of the poverty rate for related children aged 5-17 from the experimental survey would be averaged with the 1989 estimate of the poverty rate for related children aged 5-17 from the 1990 census of Puerto Rico. The resulting average rate would be applied to the 1994 population estimate of the number of related children aged 5-17 to obtain the estimated number of poor school-age children in Puerto Rico for use for the fiscal 1997 Title I allocations.
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