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3 Risk Management Strategy
Pages 19-26

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From page 19...
... Adding the maximum 1/200 risk of critical failure from meteoroids and orbital debris to the other risks of catastrophic failure increases the overall median predicted risk of catastrophic failure for a shuttle mission from 1/131 to 1/84. At the same time, the maximum acceptable predicted risk for damage from meteoroid and orbital debris that would cause termination of a mission was set at 1/60.
From page 20...
... Assessing Risks for Individual Shuttle Missions Preflight meteoroid and orbital debris risk assessments for the space shuttle were first conducted in 1993 and are now conducted routinely prior to every shuttle mission. Figure 3-1 is a schematic diagram of the various steps involved in calculating the risk from meteoroids and orbital debns.
From page 23...
... If the maximum allowable risk from meteoroids and debris is included in the calculations, the total risk of critical failure for a shuttle mission increases from about 1/140 to about 1/80. The increase in risk appears difficult to justify, given that orbiters cost billions of dollars and that the loss of an orbiter or crew would probably leave the nation' s human space program in disarray.
From page 24...
... Currently, there is no standard terminology or process that covers the major components of the shuttle meteoroid arid debris risk assessment process, and no end-to-end sensitivity analysis has been conducted of environmental effects (i.e., ORDEM96) , impact effects (i.e., BUMPER)
From page 25...
... Refilming Risk Assessments The in-depth analyses conducted by NASA and Boeing North American Reusable Space Systems to characterize the risk of critical penetration of the orbiter wings and elevens have provided mission planners with more complete information about potential risks to the orbiter. The analyses have also provided valuable input into decisions on whether to modify existing hardware to provide better protection from the impact of meteoroids and orbital debris.
From page 26...
... E-mail to the Committee on Space Shuttle Meteoroid/Debris Risk Management from Joseph Loftus, Jr., Assistant Director (Plans) , NASA Johnson Space Center, September 12, 1997.

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