The Immigration Debate Studies on the Economic, Demographic, and Fiscal Effects of Immigration (1998) / Chapter Skim
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10 The Impact of Recent Immigration on Population Redistribution Within the United States
10 The Impact of Recent Immigration on Population Redistribution Within the United States
Pages 388-448
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From page 388... ...
greatest domestic native-born migrant gains occur in different areas than those attracting recent immigrants; and (3) evidence of a unique, accentuated out-migration of less-skilled domestic migrants away from high-immigration areas.
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From page 389... ...
The apparent demographic displacement of domestic migrants by immigrants at the low-skilled end of the spectrum implies that a more bifurcated race-class structure may emerge in areas of high immigration if this process persists. Moreover, if the mechanism for this displacement is a labor substitution, this may explain why many earlier studies, that do not take domestic migration into explicit account, show only modest or negligible impacts of immigration on a local area's unemployment rate or wage level (see review in Borjas, 1994~.
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From page 390... ...
This was especially the case for Hispanics and blacks and for those with a high school education or less. This finding reinforces the inference that the immigration country-of-origin patterns and skill-level profiles of recent immigrants are associated with their high geographic concentration within select destination areas.
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From page 391... ...
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From page 392... ...
Table 10-1 presents the high-immigration states and high internal migration states as defined by the migration patterns of the 1990-1995 and 1985-1990 periods.1 High-immigration states are the same for both periods and include the port-of-entry states: California, New York, Texas, Illinois, New Jersey, and tin this chapter, we use the term "internal migration" to denote all within-U.S. migration and the term "domestic migration" to denote within-U.S.
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From page 394... ...
The shift to a metropolitan-level analysis makes plain that Miami should be treated differently from the rest of Florida as its population gains are plainly dominated by immigration. Still, the net domestic migration levels tended to fluctuate across most of these areas between the late 1980s and early l990s, in part, reflecting changing economic circumstances.
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From page 395... ...
~ Inunig~ation Internal Migration 1 15 6 4 52 o -2 4 -6 1985-90 1990-95 6 4 0,,Z r; Texas Immigration Internal Miglation -4 -6 New lerse ~Massachusett'; ~ Immigration Intemal Migration immigration internal Migration ~ ~ 1 - '1_11 -6 ~, FIGURE 10-2 Immigration and internal migration rates for high-immigration states, 1985-1990 and 1990-1995.
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From page 396... ...
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From page 397... ...
These patterns suggest the possibility that immigration itself may exert some impact on domestic migration patterns, regardless of the current economic conditions. Consistent with the late 1980s to early l990s regional fluctuations discussed above, most of the high internal migration metros differ across each of these periods.
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From page 399... ...
Despite the resurgence of these Western and Southwestern areas, South Atlantic division metros continue to attract internal migrants from other parts of the country. Atlanta continues to gain the largest number of internal migrants of any metro in the United States.
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From page 400... ...
400 IMPACT OF RECENT IMMIGRATION ON POPULATION REDISTRIBUTION TABLE 10-3 Rates of Immigration and Net Internal Migration for U.S. Geographic Divisions and Metropolitan-Non metropolitan Categories Net Internal Migration Rates Immigration Rates Geographic Category 1985-90 1990-95 1985-90 1990-95 Geographic Divisions NORTHEAST New Englands 1.9 1.0 -0.2 -2.9 Mid-Atlantic 2.3 2.1 -3.1 -3.4 MIDWEST East North Central 0.8 0.8 -1.7 -0.8 West North Central 0.5 0.4 -1.2 0.6 SOUTH South Atlantic 1.6 1.1 5.3 2.9 East South Central 0.3 0.2 0.9 2.5 West South Central 1.2 1.4 -2.8 1.4 WEST Mountain 1.2 1.0 1.1 7.6 Pacific 4.4 3.7 1.2 -2.9 Metro-Non Metro Categories NORTHEAST Large Metro*
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From page 401... ...
Shown are foreign immigration and native-born internal migration rates specific to education attainment for the 25-to 64-year-old age groups over the 1985-1990 period. In almost all cases, rates of internal net out-migration are highest for persons with a high school education or less.
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From page 402... ...
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From page 404... ...
These distinct education-related patterns are also shown in Map 10-1, which depicts education-specific net domestic migration patterns for states in 19851990. Among 25-34 year olds, high-immigration states accounted for four of the five greatest losing states for those with at most a high school education.
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From page 406... ...
It lends support to the view that immigration is more likely to serve as a "push" rather than as a reduced "pull" for domestic migration to high-immigration states. Studies using similar and other multivariate techniques for migration over the late 1970s (Walker et al., 1992; Filer, 1992; White and Hunter, 1993; White and Imai, 1994)
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From page 407... ...
Similar results were obtained when comparing the migration of persons with only high school educations or less than high school educations with those who are college graduates (e.g., white persons with less than high school educations left New Jersey at a rate of -3.3 percent over the early 1990s compared with less than a 1 percent net out-movement among college graduates)
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From page 408... ...
, we focus on this period. Our analysis is restricted to examining the impact of different immigration levels on the domestic migration for persons with a high school education and less and who were aged 25-64 at the end of the migration period (in 1990~.
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From page 409... ...
As such, our impact analyses will address two questions: (1) How would a 50 percent increase or a 50 percent decrease in current immigration of less-skilled labor-force-aged immigrants affect domestic migration patterns of less-skilled native-born Americans?
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From page 410... ...
This analysis evaluates the effects on a state's domestic migration of lowskilled immigration to the state compared with other well-known migration determinants associated with the state's labor force, social and environmental amenities, and geographic contiguity. The second component of the impact analysis uses the results of the nested logit model to generate estimated changes in migration rates, associated with assumed alternative low-skilled immigration levels, and applying these rates to appropriate populations at risk to generate various alternative interstate domestic migration outcomes that would be consistent with the assumed alternative immigration levels.
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From page 411... ...
The results for the destination choice submodel appear in appendix tables 10-A4, 10-A5, and 10-A6, for these respective age groups.) We note that our estimate of low-skilled immigration included in these models is based on 1985-1990 immigrants reported in the 1990 census, and, therefore, is likely to understate, to some degree, the number of illegal immigrants in this group.4 Common state attribute variables that are included in both submodels are the low-skilled immigration rate, labor market variables (per capita income, unemployment rate, civilian employment growth, service employment growth)
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From page 412... ...
Other significant interactions with low-skilled immigration are shown for blacks, poor blacks, and poor Hispanics (see appendix tables 10-A1, 10-A2, and 10-A3~. Although low-skilled immigration is not an important explanatory factor in the destination choices of migrants, it is noteworthy that the racial similarity of a destination state shows as much explanatory power as the conventional labor market variables (see appendix tables 10-A4, 10-A5, and 10-A6~.
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From page 413... ...
(For convenience, we refer to these assumptions as 50 percent increases in immigration and 50 percent decreases in immigration.) The analyses below present the estimated impacts that these assumptions imply for net domestic migration of states' nativeborn residents, aged 25-64, with high school educations or less.
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From page 415... ...
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From page 416... ...
i. ~ ., .~ ~/~ ~ States with Domestic Migration Gains ~ ~ 12,000+ e~Less than 1~//~ 12,000 States with Domestic Migration Losses 1~1 12,000 MAP 10-2 Estimated five-year change in net domestic migration for states assuming 50 percent increase in U.S.
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From page 417... ...
-54 1 it, ~ Observed 4~7 ~ 50% decrease ~ 50% increase FIGURE 10-4 Estimated 1985-1990 net domestic migration for states assuming a 50 percent decrease/increase in U.S. immigration levels (ages 25-64 with high school or less education)
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From page 419... ...
· Observed ~ 50% decrease J FIGURE 10-5 California, impact on groups, estimated 1985-1990 net domestic migration rates assuming actual/50 percent decrease in U.S. immigration levels (ages 25-64 with high school or less education)
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From page 420... ...
Impact of California Immigration Changes Following this discussion of "spillover effects" of immigration, we now focus on an impact analysis that assumes that only California experiences a 50 percent decrease or 50 percent increase in its low-skilled immigration levels. The purpose of this, as indicated above, is to assess the indirect impacts of these changes on California's domestic migration exchanges with nearby states: Washington, Oregon, Nevada, and Arizona.
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From page 421... ...
FREYANDKAO-LEELIAW 80 ~ 70 ~ o cd ~ ~ 50~ ·= ~ a,> o ~ EM a, 60 ~ 40 30 ~ 20 ~ 10 ~ O 22 39 as 69 70 44 . Washington Oregon Nevada Arizona Immigration Levels r Assumed Imnllgr~on lb California :: Observed ~ 50% decrease · 50% increase 421 FIGURE 10-6 Estimated 1985-1990 net domestic migration for states assuming a 50 percent decrease/increase in California immigration levels (ages 25-64 with high school or less education)
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From page 422... ...
A similar impact is also shown for Arizona in Figure 10-8. Here, a reduction in California's immigration levels has a disproportionate effect on Arizona's net domestic migration levels for both its poverty population and its white poverty population.
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From page 423... ...
FIGURE 10-8 Arizona, impact on groups, estimated 1985-1990 net domestic migration rates assuming actual/50 percent decrease in California immigration level (ages 25-64 with high school or less education)
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From page 424... ...
Moreover, our impact analyses suggest that the immigration impacts on this domestic out-migration are considerable and would approach a 2-to-1 relationship in California under a scenario of a 50 percent increase in the state's recent immigration level. The explanation for this demographic displacement may well lie with arguments that immigrants represent labor substitutes for domestic migrants who can take advantage of opportunities in other areas, However, our results are also consistent with other explanations as well.
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From page 425... ...
Beyond the immediate implications that these concentration and selective displacement patterns hold for local economies and the employment options for less-skilled native-born workers, our findings also suggest that there are broader implications associated with the changing social demographics of high-immigration areas and with the likely widening demographic disparities between areas of high immigration and other parts of the country. More bifurcated raceclass labor force structures, the changing demographic profiles of child poverty populations, and widening race-ethnic disparities across state populations are just a few of the social demographic consequences that can result from a con .
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From page 426... ...
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From page 427... ...
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From page 428... ...
APPENDIX A THE NESTED LOGIT MODEL OF INTERSTATE MIGRATION: METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS A two-level nested logit model of interstate migration is applied in this study to the 1985-1990 interstate migration data to assess the effects of low-skilled immigration on U.S.-born Americans with, at most, high school education. The estimated results of this model are an integral part of the impact analysis that is discussed in further detail in Appendix B and in the relevant section of the text.
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From page 429... ...
is a column vector of observable explanatory variables and b' is a row vector of unknown coefficients. Departure Submodel pLi,s]
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From page 430... ...
Definition of the Explanatory Variables Used in This Analysis Explanatory Variables in the Destination Model Low-skilled Immigration Rate For each potential destination, this variable is obtained by dividing the state-specific number of 1985-1990 foreign-born immigrants with high school education or less, aged 15-64, by the 1985 state population, aged 15-64. The unit is "percent per 5 years." Income This is the income per capita of a potential destination computed in the following way.
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From page 431... ...
. Explanatory Variables in the Departure Choice Model All the explanatory variables in the departure choice model that have the same names as those in the destination model are defined in the same way, except that the state in question is the origin rather than a potential destination.
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From page 432... ...
, using the estimated coefficients of the best destination choice model.
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From page 433... ...
EFFECTS OF LABOR MARKET VARIABLES Income Income* High School Graduate Civilian Employment Growth Service Employment Growth Service Employment Growth *
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From page 434... ...
EFFECTS OF LABOR MARKET VARIABLES Income Income* High School Graduate Civilian Employment Growth Service Employment Growth Service Employment Growth *
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From page 435... ...
RETENTION EFFECTS OF RACIAL SIMILARITY 0.0020 Racial Similarity* Black -0.21 -15.1 Racial Similarity*
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From page 436... ...
EFFECTS OF LABOR MARKET VARIABLES 0.0029 Income* High School Graduate -0.35 -5.2 Civilian Employment Growth -1.90 -8.3 Service Employment Growth -2.09 -9.3 Unemployment 3.08 8.0
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From page 437... ...
EFFECTS OF POPULATION COMPOSITIONS Non-Native's Share of State Population 2.46 30.5 10. DRAWING POWER OF THE REST OF SYSTEM 0.0012 Inclusive Variable 0.41 19.8 Rho-Square 0.0188
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From page 438... ...
High School Education Civilian Employment Growth Service Employment Growh Service Employment Growth* Less Than High School Ed.
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From page 439... ...
EFFECTS OF LABOR MARKET VARIABLES Income Civilian Employment Growth Service Employment Growth 4. EFFECTS OF RACIAL ATTRACTIONS Racial Similarity*
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From page 440... ...
Poor Indian Female 3. EFFECTS OF LABOR MARKET VARIABLES Income Civilian Employment Growth Service Employment Growh Service Employment Growth*
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From page 441... ...
Using the best nested logit models for the age groups 25-29, 30-44, and 45-64, respectively, as inputs, the immigration impact analyses will also be initially disaggregated for these same three age groups. They are later summed to assess the aggregate impact on the U.S.-born persons aged 25-64 with, at most, a high school education.
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From page 442... ...
(B7) To study the impact of a change in the national immigration level on interstate migrations, we change each state's assumed value for the variable's "low-skilled immigration rate" to estimate new values for the destination choice and departure submodels in equations (B1)
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From page 443... ...
immigrants by 1,600,000 and the number of working-aged lowskilled immigrants by 957,000. This translates into scaling the "low-skilled immigration rate" (B8)
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From page 444... ...
We also appreciate the collaboration of Ji-Ping Lin in carrying out the impact analysis. Cathy Sun performed computer programm~ng and Ron Lue Sang prepared maps and graphics.
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From page 445... ...
1996 "Immigration, Domestic Migration and Demographic Balkanization in America: New Evidence for the 1990s." Population and Development Review 22(4)
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From page 446... ...
Liaw, Kao-Lee, and William H Frey 1998 "Destination Choices of 1985-90 Young Adult Immigrants in the United States: Importance of Race, Education Attainment and Labor Market Forces." International Journal of Population Geography 4(1)
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From page 447... ...
Newman, Kristen E., and Marta Tienda 1994 "The Settlement and Secondary Migration Patterns of Legalized Immigrants: Insights from Administrative Records.
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From page 448... ...
New York: Russell Sage. White, Michael J., and Lori Hunter 1993 "The Migratory Response of Native-born Workers to the Presence of Immigrants in the Labor Market." Paper presented at the 1993 meeting of the Population Association of America, Cincinnati, April.
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