Global Environmental Change Research Pathways for the Next Decade (1999) / Chapter Skim
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7 Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change
7 Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change
Pages 293-376
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From page 293... ...
It has shown, for example, that human interactions with the environment do not necessarily lead to a "tragedy of the commons" and has begun to enumerate the necessary conditions for successful long-term environmental resource management. Research on the human consequences of global change shows that they are due at least as much to the social systems that produce vulnerability as to environmental changes themselves.
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• Understanding land use/land cover dynamics and human migration. This research should examine and compare case studies of land use and land cover change; develop a typology that links social and economic driving forces to land cover dynamics; and model land use changes at regional
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INTRODUCTION Study of the human dimensions of global environmental change encompasses analysis of the human causes of global environmental transformations, the consequences of such changes for societies and economies, and the ways in which people and institutions respond to the changes. It also involves the broader social, political, and economic processes and institutions that frame human interactions with the environment and influence human behavior and decisions.
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Between 1950 and 2000 the world's population will have increased from 2.5 billion to more than 6 billion people. Total energy consumption increased from 188,000 petajoules annually in 1970 to almost 300,000 petajoules in 1990, and per capita energy consumption increased from about 50 to 57 gigajoules.1 Between 1970 and 1990, global forest area decreased by 6 percent, irrigated area increased by almost 40 percent, number of cattle increased by 25 percent, and use of chemical fertilizers doubled.2 TABLE 7.2 Greenhouse Gas Concentrations, Preindustrial Age to 1984 1990s Rate of Change Greenhouse Gas Preindustrial Age 1994 per Year (%)
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From page 297... ...
Thus, another major focus of human dimensions research is estimating the social and economic consequences of anticipated global environmental changes. This research integrates information about anticipated environmental changes with information on the social parameters that determine the impact of those changes: demand for affected natural resources, vulnerability of geographical regions and social groups to particular environmental changes, and the potential for adaptive response.
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Although research on the social and policy aspects of environmental change has a long history, human dimensions research only became formally linked to global change research in the late 1980s. The potential for making this link was set forth in seminal writings addressed to national and international research policy makers.5 Human dimensions research became part of the U.S.
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Forest plantations and forest management have the potential to sequester up to 75 billion tons of carbon a year.10 Studies of the economic feasibility of this strategy have been used as a basis for discussions in the negotiations for the Framework Convention on Climate Change and have informed debate on strategies such as joint implementation of carbon reductions through aid for forest and energy efficiency projects. Also considered by the IPCC was the issue of deforestation in Amazonia, where human dimensions research has informed policy decisions in Amazonian nations, especially Brazil, and in international organizations such as the World Bank.
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300 GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE FIGURE 7.1 Change in global, developed country, and developing country cereal production, cereal prices, and people at risk of hunger in 2060 under different climate change scenarios (% change from a base estimate for 2060)
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For example, hurricane and flood losses have reached more than $1 billion annually in recent years and have stressed both federal disaster relief and private insurance systems.15 Although these increased disaster losses may be due to climate change, much of the increase is a result of increasing vulnerability resulting from more people living in hazard-prone locations, increasing property prices, and inadequate land use and building regulations. In the developing world, millions of people have been displaced by cyclones, flooding, and droughts, as population growth, migration, and poverty expose more people to climatic extremes.16 The human consequences of climate change and variability depend critically on the vulnerability of human populations and on their ability to adapt, as well as on climatic events.
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• What are the human consequences of global environmental change for key life support systems, such as water, health, and agriculture, and for economies and political systems? • What are the potential human responses to global change?
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By developing understanding of human-environment dynamics, human dimensions research improves the knowledge base for anticipating future environmental changes and for informing policies aimed at reshaping the environmental future. Studies of the human consequences of and responses to global change help inform judgments about what kinds of responses would be most desirable (e.g., mitigation, adaptation options)
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From page 304... ...
The global change research community has made considerable progress in recent years on several important questions, such as the social causes of deforestation in regions like the Amazon River basin and Southeast Asia; the role of social, political, and economic institutions in land use decisions; and the relationships between population and land use (and land cover) change.22 There have also been tremendous improvements in the ability to combine social, physical, and remote sensing data within geographic information systems, often with the explicit purpose of understanding how processes at local scales are nested in regional, national, and global scales.23 Additionally, human dimensions research has highlighted the important distinction between land use and land cover.
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From page 305... ...
Numerous cases do suggest that population growth and/or migration are correlated with increasing rates of tropical deforestation, but just as many suggest that population growth need not lead to increasing deforestation -- when alternative employment, settlement concentration, and other processes are available as alternatives to land clearing, to provide a population with an acceptable standard of living.28 In fact, there is considerable evidence that only at higher population densities does one find more intensive and efficient use of land.29 Research on land management practices has demonstrated that overexploitation of common-pool natural resources -- the so-called tragedy of the commons30 -- is not an inevitable consequence of human nature and the spatial distribution of resources but is contingent on the structure of human communities and the condition of social institutions that effectively govern access to a resource, monitor its condition, and establish sanctions for overexploitation.31 Both cultural traditions and contemporary legal rules, such as land tenure rules, are critical in influencing how land can be used and by whom. The emergence of integrated and interdisciplinary approaches to understanding land use and environmental issues has resulted in a series of studies that show how political and economic structures constrain individual choices about management of land and resources.32 For example, colonial legacies of unequal land tenure and export-oriented production, combined with current unfavorable terms of trade and debt, have driven many peasants to overuse their land, adopt polluting technologies, or cut their forests.33 Social scientists have begun to make greater use of orbital Earth-observing satellites in recent years.
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into population and environmental research in 1995, the creation in 1996 of an NSF-funded research center that works on land use -- the Center for the Study of Institutions, Population and Environmental Change at Indiana University -- and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Land Use Cover Change request for proposals.
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• How to best use the expanding range of satellite data in land use/land cover change research. Human Impacts on Coastal and Marine Ecosystems Global change research encompasses the study of changes in coastal and marine ecosystems insofar as they are affected by physical and socioeconomic processes that are global in scale and effect.
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Changes in Energy and Materials Use Fossil fuel use is the most prominent human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere. Since the 1970s, a burst of human dimensions research seeking to understand the consumption of fossil fuels has been proceeding simultaneously at several levels.
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At the household level, for example, energy use is affected by income and fuel prices, household structure and social group membership, and by individual knowledge, beliefs, and habits, as well as by the energy-using technologies that households possess.51 Research on the determinants of consumer decisions to take advantage of technical and economic possibilities to improve energy efficiency indicates that more is required than favorable attitudes and accurate information. There is significant potential to improve residential energy efficiency with appropriately designed interventions.
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From page 310... ...
It has led to the broader concept of environmentally significant consumption and to the idea of applying analyses like those used for energy to various nonelemental materials of environmental importance, such as wood, steel, cement, glass, and plastics.57 An important part of research on energy use is scenario making, which seeks to extrapolate current energy use patterns into the future.58 Time horizons of
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Nonetheless, over the past two decades, scenario making to elucidate energy consumption has become a highly developed art, featuring dialogues among modelers to ensure quality control and intercomparisons and to highlight debatable assumptions. Scenario building has been an essential basis for IPCC assessment models of future climate and analyses of mitigation options, the latter employing models used for scenario building in policy analysis of greenhouse gas emission control strategies.61 Important insights of such activities include the following: • Estimates of future emissions of greenhouse gases are highly sensitive to assumptions about future economic, technological, and social changes, particularly about the autonomous rates of decarbonization and improve ment in the energy efficiency of technology, about the likelihood of further large-scale economic transformations, and about the stability of preferences.
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What Are the Human Consequences of Global Environmental Change? Human dimensions research has made important progress in understanding the consequences of global change for people and ecosystems.
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Many of the methods can be used to understand the impacts of seasonal to interannual climate variability, thus increasing the usefulness of forecasts on that timescale based on improved understanding and modeling of El Niño. The new approaches can also be used in analyzing the impacts of decadal shifts in atmospheric circulation and climate variability.
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Knowledge is not yet adequate to achieve several goals critical to anticipating the likely consequences of future environmental changes, such as: • Developing indicators of vulnerability that are sensitive to regional and social variations. • Projecting vulnerability estimates into the future.
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For example, seasonal migration in drought-prone areas, crop diversification, hazard insurance systems, social norms of helping, flood control, fire management policies, zoning regulations, river monitoring, and other social and technological systems can alter the frequency, severity, extent, and distribution of economic losses associated with hazards. Such social systems can make as much difference in human outcomes as the distribution of weather events themselves, largely because of the effects of these systems on vulnerability.75 Global environmental change challenges human hazard management systems with potential major environmental surprises resulting from the nonlinear behavior of global environmental systems.
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This research focus has achieved one important end: highlighting the plausibility of several types of potential impacts of global environmental change on
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This section reviews progress in several pertinent areas of research, including international environmental policy, local and regional institutions, decision making and risk analysis, and valuation. We also examine progress in "integrated assessment" of global environmental changes.
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National and Local Institutions Human responses to global environmental change are shaped by institutions, defined broadly as the norms, regulations, interpretations or understandings, and social organizations that bear on a particular activity. The past decade has seen a renaissance of research on the structure and dynamics of social institutions and a change in thinking about how these institutions shape human activity.89 This work is being applied increasingly to problems of institutional design for managing environmental change.90 It is developing a knowledge base on how social institutions have succeeded and failed at long-term management of environmental resources that will be useful for informing future environmental policy choices.
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An important focus of recent research on national and local institutions is property rights institutions, as they bear on the management of environmental resources.92 One advance has been to demonstrate the ambiguity of such terms as "the commons" and "common property" and hence the need to specify property rights arrangements in more detail.93 The term "common property" has been used to signify, at one extreme, unregulated open-access situations, as in many highseas fisheries, frontier agricultural or mining development, and air and water pollution. At the other extreme, it has referred to highly regulated and tightly circumscribed systems governing the use of land or natural resources as found in some communities, where "commons" signifies a viable institution of collective rights and responsibilities.94 Most "common property" institutional arrangements are somewhere in between.
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Research shows some economic benefits but mixed results with regard to creating incentives for conservation.98 Emissions trading has been shown to reduce the costs of regulation.99 Experiments have been under way to apply this idea internationally, for example, by using international carbon emissions offsets to help developing countries finance environmental regulation.100 Distributional effects of trading are major issues for both fisheries and emissions regulation. Research on modifying the ways in which markets allocate environmental resources has significant insights to offer in responding to global change.
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From page 321... ...
This technique has found some acceptance in policy circles, but methodological and conceptual questions about the approach are still being hotly debated.102 Some progress has also been made in estimating the nonmarket value of environmental resources for inclusion in national income accounts.103 Researchers have also examined the use of novel methods for integrating disparate kinds of values without converting them to monetary units. Techniques of multiattribute utility analysis allow values to be integrated in various ways to reflect users' value priorities.104 Simulations and policy-exercise studies clarify key uncertainties, values, and interactions, and deliberative methods involve both experts and nonexperts in interpreting analyses.105 Such experiments promise to yield methods that complement economic techniques of valuation, where the latter give incomplete or inconclusive results.
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Decision makers can benefit from recent advances in understanding human judgment and decision processes regarding complex environmental choices. Over the past decade this research has increasingly clarified why scientific efforts to analyze and assess global environmental threats do not easily lead to social consensus on policy responses to those threats.
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Integrated Assessment One approach used to understand the implications of policy responses to global change is known as "integrated assessment." In integrated assessment, methods or processes are applied to combine knowledge from multiple domains, such as socioeconomic and biophysical fields, within a consistent framework to inform policy and decision making. Integrated assessments of environmental issues have been conducted since the 1970s,114 but the past 10 years have seen a flood of interest and activity, particularly to address global climate change.
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A striking result of the few attempts to integrate uncertainty quantitatively across biophysical and socioeconomic domains has been that, among the various kinds of uncertainties, socioeconomic uncertainties appear to predominate in assessing aggregate impacts and net benefits of policies and decisions. Key socioeconomic uncertainties include future population growth and migration, social and political determinants of environmentally relevant consumption, rate and character of technological change, adaptation-mediated regional impacts of climate and environmental change, effects of policies, and variation in preferences.
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They also permit study of how preferred policies depend on alternative specifications of damage functions, discount rates, the dynamics of impacts and technological change, or the structure of world regions and of bargaining.119 Other integrated assessment projects concentrate on the specification and propagation of uncertainty, allowing identification and ranking of key policyrelevant uncertainties or the elaboration of adaptive and learning strategies for responding to progressively resolved uncertainty over time.120 Still other projects concentrate on the elaboration of spatial and sectoral detail for climate impacts, human adaptation and responses, and human-mediated feedbacks through land use change to the climate system.121 Integrated assessment practitioners have claimed insights such as the following: that a large near-term abatement effort for climate change is not justified; that the market impacts of climate change in high-income countries (but not lowincome ones) will be small; that optimal abatement paths would reduce gross domestic product by only a few percent, compared with unconstrained paths, and can be accomplished with carbon taxes of a few dollars per ton; and that delays of a few decades in controlling emissions are preferable to immediate action, even if stringent reductions are subsequently determined to be needed.122 These conclusions, however, depend on several particular characteristics of most assessment models: they offer very limited representation of the possibility of extreme events; they only reference doubled CO2 scenarios and so fail to include the concentrations likely by the end of the next century under aggressive fossil fuel growth, which drives atmospheric, ecosystem, and impacts models all far out of their validated ranges; they include weak or no representation of multiple interacting environmental stresses; and they assume limited learning in technological change or policy.
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What Are the Underlying Social Processes, or Driving Forces, Behind the Human Relationship to the Global Environment? Human dimensions research has also examined fundamental questions about the broader political, social, technological, and economic forces that shape the human activities that cause environmental change and influence its consequences.
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In some developed countries, concern is strongly correlated with education; in some it is strongest in younger age cohorts. Concern about global environmental problems relative to local and national ones is strongest in developed countries, whereas in countries with highly visible pollution problems, environmental issues closer to home are seen as relatively more serious.126 Environmental concern is strongest in countries with serious objective pollution problems and in countries with strong environmentalist values.127 Research on the factors underlying environmental concern finds that it is partly rooted in basic psychological values, particularly concerns with the welfare of others and of future generations and a widespread belief in the sacredness of nature.128 This work draws on extensive basic research that has developed a comprehensive typology of human values.129 Additionally, environmental concern reflects beliefs about how environmental conditions may affect those things that an individual values, suggesting that public response to newly identified environmental conditions may depend on the kinds of consequences projected for those conditions.130 Despite some widely held misconceptions about the causes of climate change,131 such variation from accepted scientific accounts does not seem to diminish levels of public concern with the environmental problems that also concern scientists.
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Important advances in knowledge of individual and household behavior include the following: • Improved understanding of the many factors affecting specific types of environmentally significant consumption at the household level (espe cially energy use) in high-income countries and recognition of the situa tion specificity of these effects.
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• Develop more realistic assessments of likely environmental policy out comes that take behavioral responses into account. Economic Transformations Various large-scale economic transformations around the world may have major implications for the generation of environmental change and for human vulnerability to it.
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• The service sector has grown dramatically, especially in urban areas, contributing to increased vulnerability of human settlements, as poor people move into cities for work and must often live in hazard-prone environments. Knowledge is still inadequate for several needs: • Establishing the theoretical and empirical links among economic global ization, global environmental change, and the consequences of global change.
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• Human migration, particularly urbanization and movement to vulnerable environments, has been identified as a major potential influence on future environmental change.
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The problem has not yet been modeled satisfactorily, nor has sufficient empirical research been conducted to test the alternative perspectives. However, dialogue between the two theoretical camps is increasing and signs of a conceptual synthesis are beginning to appear, in which the questions are formulated in terms of the relationship between rates of substitution and rates of resource consumption.145 Past research has documented some regularities in the time path of change in environmentally significant technologies, including rates of technology diffusion and secular trends toward so-called dematerialization and decarbonization; it has also documented variations around general time trends.146 There has been a lively empirically based debate about the extent to which scarcity may induce innovations that reduce costs and find substitutes, a debate that may be heading toward synthesis.147 Extensive studies have also been conducted of the conditions favoring adoption of technological innovations.
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Complex Determination of Environmentally Significant Consumption The term "consumption" has different meanings in different scientific disciplines; research on environmentally significant consumption focuses on human activities, such as clearing forests and using fossil energy, that transform or degrade biophysical resources and thus affect things that people value. Accumulating evidence indicates that all of the environmentally significant kinds of consumption are determined by multiple factors, including such driving forces as population growth, economic and technological development, cultural forces, values and beliefs, political activity, institutions, and policies and by the interactions of these forces.
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Vulnerability depends on a number of factors, including intensity of land and water use and population immigration in marginal areas, access to economic resources, infrastructure for hazard response, the health status of potentially affected populations, and the structure of the hazard management systems a society has in place to prepare for and manage environmental events. Vulnerability analyses are essential for estimating the human impacts of environmental change and variation.
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Research on the effectiveness of various deliberative procedures is in its infancy compared with research on analytical techniques. Importance of a Broad-Based Infrastructure A broad national and international infrastructure is developing for research and policy development on the human dimensions of global environmental change.
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are developing human dimensions research programs. Significance of Improved Observational Methods and Data Systems Observation, that is, the collection of data, relies on sources ranging from remote sensing platforms on satellites to social surveys.
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Improved access to data via the World Wide Web, along with advances in software and metadata standards, have greatly improved the ability of researchers to search for specific types of data and then manipulate or download them. RESEARCH IMPERATIVES Although considerable progress has been made in understanding the human dimensions of global environmental change, there are still many unresolved questions and several important new areas for research.
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Social Determinants of Environmentally Significant Consumption Previous research has identified changes in the use of land, energy, and materials as priority subjects in understanding the causes of global change. Although the driving forces for the use of these resources include population growth and technological change, in many regions the most important determinant of environmental impacts is the per capita consumption of energy and materials.
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and activities that use chlorofluorocarbons, nitrogen, and certain other materials responsible for stratospheric ozone depletion, pollution of ecosystems, and other global environmental changes. Other activities (wood and water use, meat and fish consumption, toxic chemicals and waste disposal)
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• What social forces drive the most environmentally significant consump tion types, such as travel, the diffusion of electrical appliances, agricul tural intensification, water use, and purchases of high-energy-consuming vehicles? • What are the relative roles of various determinants of consumption in different countries?
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Improving emissions scenarios for greenhouse gases and other globally significant pollutants such as SO2 and hydrogenated chlorofluorocarbons requires not only more accurate demographic trajectories but also sectoral studies of changes in consumption and technology, particularly in developing countries. The implementation and enforcement of international treaties to control ozone depletion and greenhouse gas emissions and the projection of future changes in atmospheric chemistry all will require a much more realistic and geographically disaggregated assessment of land use, technology substitution, consumer preferences, incentives, and trade than has been undertaken to date.
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It is also critical to improving the modeling and anticipation of the climatic impacts of greenhouse gases, to understanding regional changes in atmospheric chemistry, and to examining the role of technology in human impacts on terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Regionally Relevant Climate Change Assessments and Seasonal to Interannual Climate Predictions One of the great challenges of global change research is to make scientific information, such as the results of climate modeling and analysis and studies of vulnerability and adaptation posibilities, more relevant to decision making at the local level.
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Because ENSO appears to be correlated with large impacts on agriculture, health, water resources, and ecosystems, this improved forecast capability has significant implications for people, especially when combined with information on vulnerability and adaptive responses. The NRC panel considered such issues as measuring and monitoring the social impacts of climate variability, analyzing changes in vulnerability to climatic extremes and variations in vulnerability across social groups, and identifying opportunities and barriers for the beneficial use of seasonal forecasts, including improved understanding of interactions with markets and improved communication of uncertainties in the policy process and to forecast users.
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• Can the mesoscale outputs of climate models be better linked to models predicting the regional impacts of climate change? • How are the impacts of climate change and variability affected by the coping techniques available to vulnerable groups?
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• What are the global environmental change implications of rapid political and social changes in the past and present?
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Effective Institutions for Managing Global Environmental Change To make effective and well-informed decisions to anticipate the threat of global environmental change, society needs better understanding of how social institutions influence environmentally significant human actions. This need can
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Over the next decade, research to meet these needs should address such questions as the following: • What are the characteristics of effective institutions for managing global environmental change? • What are the correlates of effectiveness for the management of interna tional environmental and natural resources by international regimes and institutions?
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Changes in Land Use/Land Cover and Patterns of Migration Considerable progress is already being made in understanding land use/land cover change and changes in human population processes. All land use is local, but the forces influencing the dynamics of land use and land cover come not only from individuals, households, and communities but also from processes at regional, national, and global levels.
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Causation and feedback will probably move in both directions: environmental changes will likely cause migration, and migration will likely change the environment. Careful research into the relationships between population mobility and environmental change is also needed because of the growing popular concern with environmental refugees, the environmental impacts of immigration, and the role of population in environmental conflict and security.156 There is very little empirical documentation of the relationships between migration and environment.
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• What are the interrelations between migration and environmental change? • What comparative case studies of land use and land cover change are useful for understanding and modeling land use change at regional and global scales?
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• An improved capability to include detailed land use and land cover infor mation in regional- and global-scale models and the development of prototype land use models that can be validated and used to identify gaps in knowledge. • Use of a wider range of satellite data to study human-environment inter actions.
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• How can information about the nonmarket values of environmental re sources be incorporated effectively into decision making about resource use? • How can we better represent, propagate, analyze, and describe uncertain ties and surprises in integrated assessment (e.g., integrating quantita tively specified uncertainty with subjective probability distributions, clari fying the relationship between uncertainty and disagreement)
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From page 353... ...
For each of the program's four major research themes, key human dimensions research activities relevant to that theme must be identified and supported. For example, atmospheric chemistry would include research on the consumption patterns and technologies that drive emissions-altering atmospheric chemistry, on the impacts of UV changes, and on the institutions and decision
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Structuring support for human dimensions research only around themes defined by natural science is inadequate because certain human dimensions issues cut across all of the research themes and require crosscutting and independent research initiatives. These initiatives include those on valuing environmental quality, the problem of developing improved methods for environmental decision making, and some questions about the human driving forces of environmental change.
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Improve Geographic Links to Existing Social and Health Data With few notable exceptions, social science data have been collected without concern for research questions about the human dimensions of global environmental change. The data collection efforts have mainly been driven by other needs and paid for by agencies that are not part of the USGCRP.
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Data systems that integrate health outcomes with remote sensing/ geographic information system mapping can help researchers evaluate climate and land use impacts on food sources, predators, and habitats for rodents and other ecosystem changes with human consequences. Linking social and biophysical data presumes stable funding for archiving and disseminating human dimensions data and sufficient financial resources to permit upgrading as the storage and dissemination technology changes.
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It should improve predictive models of specific environmental changes and variations that have human impacts and develop understanding of the causes and likely future trends of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. This research should include a focus on the characteristics of social systems that make them sensitive or vulnerable to particular environmental changes and on social changes that are likely to alter the sensitivities of particular human populations over time.
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2. World Resources Institute (1996)
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49. International Energy Agency (1997)
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, Social Learning Group (1998) , National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (1991)
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149. World Resources Institute (1996)
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Global Environmental Change 4(1)
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1996. Land cover in the Amazon estuary: Linking of TM with botanical and historical data.
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1995. Global Environmental Change and Sustainable Development in Europe, J
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1993. Valuing environmental resources: A constructive approach.
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1991. On the threshold: Environmental changes as causes of acute conflict.
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Global Environmental Change: Human and Policy Dimensions 1:183-208. Kempton, W
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1994b. Vulnerability to global environmental change.
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1988. The human dimensions of global environmental change.
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1992. Global Environmental Change: Understanding the Human Dimensions, P.C.
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1997. Informing global environmental policy-making: A plea for new methods of assessment and synthesis.
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1992. Energy Efficiency and Human Activity: Past Trends, Future Prospects.
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Pp. 12-25 in Environmentally Significant Consumption: Research Directions.
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7. Hu man Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Programme, Geneva.
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1996. World Resources: A Guide to the Global Environment.
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