Review of the Research and Development Plan for the Office of Advanced Automotive Technologies (1998) / Chapter Skim
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2 OVERALL EVALUATION
2 OVERALL EVALUATION
Pages 14-28
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From page 14... ...
The technical plan is divided into eight sections, one section on vehicle systems and seven sections on individual technology areas, namely, advanced engines, fuel cells, high power energy storage, power electronics and electric machines, advanced automotive materials, alternative fuels, and electric vehicle batteries. R&D proposed for the technical areas will be conducted primarily by industry and the national laboratories, although small businesses and universities will also have an opportunity to participate.
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From page 15... ...
In the course of product realization from basic scientific research through the various phases of engineering to production and marketing the appropriate roles of government and industry must be defined and adhered to. In the committee's view, private industry is unlikely to conduct most of the research on advanced automotive technologies described in the plan without government encouragement and support because of the high technical risk, the long time lag before benefits are likely to be realized, and the lack of market incentive.
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From page 16... ...
~. The corresponding OAAT objective is to develop and validate "automotive technologies which will enable the achievement of 80 mpg in a six-passenger sedan." The OAAT should explain why the words "up to" were omitted, given that vehicles with fuel efficiencies of 40 or 60 mpg would considerably reduce petroleum consumption.
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From page 17... ...
economy and improve living standards; reduce the country's vulnerability to sudden changes in energy prices and supplies; and reduce the adverse environmental effects associated with energy production, delivery, and use. The committee also acknowledges the desirability of slowing the rate of growth of petroleum consumption, provided this can be done without serious adverse effects.
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From page 18... ...
"Fuel efficiency" is less ambiguous than "fuel economy," particularly in reference to alternative fuels. "Gasoline equivalent fuel consumption per mile" might be even better because it provides a better perspective Alternative fuels include ethanol, compressed natural gas (CNG)
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From page 19... ...
technological lead in advanced automotive technologies will be translated into early commercialization "will depend on future government policies as well as how the vehicles perform and how much they cost relative to steadily improving conventional vehicles of the same generation" (OTA, 1995~.5 An important criterion for marketability is cost competitiveness, but it is impossible to predict when the price of gasoline or diesel fuel will rise to the level that would make advanced technology vehicles cost competitive. As OTA noted, "the cost effectiveness of fuel economy technologies and customer preference for efficient vehicles will vary with gasoline prices." The dates for meeting the 80 mpg and 100 mpg performance targets and for marketing the associated technologies in the Executive Summary and the Goal and Objectives section of the plan differ.
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From page 20... ...
The basis of this assumption is not stated, but it appears to involve a significant rise in petroleum prices either as the result of a world shortage or some other political or economic event, or because of increased concerns about the environmental impact of air pollution and global climate change. Thus, advanced technology vehicles, which are likely to be more costly than current conventional vehicles, might become cost competitive at some time in the future.
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From page 21... ...
Synthetic fuels have the potential to be cost competitive if petroleum prices rise because of disruptions in the supply, as they did during the oil crisis of the 1970s. However, synthetic fuels are not cost competitive with petroleum at today's prices, despite considerable efforts to improve production technology and reduce costs.
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From page 22... ...
economy of disruptions in petroleum supplies, the potential costs of air pollution and global climate change, and the relatively modest costs of the proposed R&D, justify the OAAT plan as an insurance policy. One point that is not adequately addressed in the plan is that a higher than "competitive" cost for advanced automotive technologies might be justified by the societal benefits, such as less air pollution, a reduced threat of global climate change, enhanced national security, or a lower trade deficit.
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From page 23... ...
. The IDEA program funds projects each less than $100,000 for technology development and demonstration related to intelligent transportation systems, highways, and mass transit.9 A similar approach to overcoming the technical barriers defined in the OAAT R&D plan might result in some innovative solutions and nontraditional technologies.
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From page 24... ...
During the oral presentations, OAAT representatives indicated to the committee that priorities are implied in the plans for individual technologies, notably in the ranking of technical barriers. The OAAT staff also informed the committee that prioritization across technologies will be part of the PNGV technology selection process for concept vehicles to be constructed by the year 2000, which will involve extensive discussions with interested parties.
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From page 25... ...
A statement in the Preface declares that the plan, "is not tailored to explicit budget levels" although the activities described in the plan "have been conceived to be implemented within realistic, plausible budget levels." The plan also notes that "in the event that appropriated budget levels will not support all of the activities reflected in the plan, available funding will be concentrated on the highestpriority technical barriers in the development path of the subject technologies." No mention is made of prioritizing activities across technology areas, thereby suggesting that work would continue in all eight technology areas but at reduced levels. In the committee's judgment, the absence of clear priorities is a serious problem that could jeopardize the implementation of the plan within anticipated budget constraints.
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From page 26... ...
Advanced vehicle competitions Subtotal Advanced Heat Engines Piston engines Gas turbines Propulsion system materials Subtotal Fuel Cells Systems development Component R&D Reformer and storage Subtotal High Power Energy Storage High power batteries Ultracapacitors Flywheels Subtotal Power Electronics and Electric Machines Advanced Automotive Materials Lightweight materials Subtotal Alternative Fuels Electric Vehicle Battery Advanced battery development Exploratory technology research Subtotal TOTAL 38,850 850 39,700 7,600 5,000 6~500 19,100 12,150 4,500 4~500 21,150 5,135 2,165 700 8,000 3,000 13~871 13,871 2,370 15,320 2~500 17,820 125,011 most cases is to select projects for further work based on clear priorities and put others on hold or eliminate them. Another possibility would be to adjust industry's share of the costs.
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From page 27... ...
The concept of developing advanced automotive technologies as an insurance policy against disruptions in oil supplies or more stringent environmental regulations should be clearly articulated. Cost-benefit issues and the time frames in which benefits (increased energy efficiency, reduced petroleum consumption, reduced air pollution, and reduced emissions of greenhouse gases)
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From page 28... ...
1997. Energy Efficient Technologies for 21st Century Vehicles: Research and Development Plan for the Office of Advanced Automotive Technologies.
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