Rapid Population Change in China, 1952-1982 (1984) / Chapter Skim
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From page 1... ...
This new information, supplemented by time series of registered births and deaths and end-of-year population totals extending back to the 1950s and by data from other large recent surveys, provides a sound basis for constructing an accurate and detailed history of the remarkable changes in fertility, mortality, and marriage that have occurred in China since the People's Republic was established. The newly available information includes complete histories of marriage and childbearing of women up to age 67 in the 1/1,000 fertility survey of 1982.
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From page 2... ...
This age pattern closely resembles the early gradual and later steep decline of marital fertility rates with age of woman that is characteristic of populations in which couples practice little contraception or induced abortion. This age pattern of marital fertility in the 1950s supports the inference of little use of contraception.
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From page 3... ...
_ percent decline in TFR even though married women produce an unchanging total number of children per marriage-arises from the temporary reduction in the number of marriages that is caused by a rise in mean age at ~ , _ , , This annarentlv anomalous effect -- a 20
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From page 4... ...
As shown in Figure 1, between 1960 and 1966, the urban TFR fell to about half the rural TFR, and it remained at about that fraction when the large reduction in rural fertility began in 1970. Other differentials in fertility that are usually present in the first years of a major reduction were present in China in 1981: fertility was lower for more educated women and for women in higher occupational categories; the minority ethnic groups had much higher fertility than the rural Han majority.
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From page 5... ...
Experience in other populations is of slightly declining male/female ratios with birth order. Since stopping rules -- no more births following a male -- do not affect the male/female ratio and sex-selective abortion on a large scale does not seem possible in rural China, the explanation for the reported male/female birth ratios must be unreported higher-order female births.
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From page 6... ...
Average death rates by age for each sex in each intercensal interval can be calculated from census data and constructed numbers of births. From these death rates life tables are derived that show the average age at death that would result from the continued prevalence of the calculated intercensal average death rates.
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From page 7... ...
The death rate fell to 10 in 1963 as normal conditions were restored, then continued to decline to a rate between 6 and 7 per 1,000 in the late 1970s and early 1980s. When the intercensal aggregate shortfall in the number of death s derived from official sources is allocated under an assumption of improving completeness after 1955 and constant completeness from 1964-82, the estimated death rate in the early 1950s is above 20, the peak death rate in 1960 is above 35, and the recent death rate is between 7 and 8 (rather than between 6 and 7)
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