Rapid Population Change in China, 1952-1982 (1984) / Chapter Skim
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4 Childbearing in China Since 1950
4 Childbearing in China Since 1950
Pages 46-63
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From page 46... ...
The detailed fertility histories were obtained by interviewing women aged 15-67. Because of the upper age limit, the age-specific fertility rates presented for women aged 49 are derived from actual responses of the women interviewed only for years after 1964, rates for women aged 45 are derived from responses only after 1959, etc.
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From page 47... ...
(2~66) aAdjusted to correct for effect of lunar calendar and for understatement in other years.
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From page 48... ...
The unadjusted total fertility rates in Table 5 are taken directly from the report on the fertility survey, which also contains partially estimated TFRS for 1940-49, with an average value of 5.44 for that decade. This rate differs very little from the total fertility rate of 5.50 estimated by Barclay and others (1976)
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From page 49... ...
_ ~ _ , _ _ , A postponement of childbearing caused by later marriage produces a temporary reduction in period fertility even if cohort total fertility is not changed. When age at marriage stops increasing, this temporary depression of fertility ends.
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From page 50... ...
This assumption is logically tenable if there is very little contraceptive practice. The second assumption is that the fertility of married women at each duration of marriage remains fixed, with a duration-specific fertility schedule that declines quite steeply because each marriage cohort is curtailing its childbearing after the early attainment of desired family size.
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From page 51... ...
(The estimated number of ever-married women by duration of marriage from 1970 to 1982 is shown in Table A-5.) The ratio of births by duration since first marriage to number of ever-married women by duration provides a set of duration-specific ever-married fertility rates for 1970, 1977, and 1981 (see Table A-6)
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From page 52... ...
Had the rates remained unchanged at the low level, the TFR would have declined from 3.09 in 1970 to a low of 2.41 in 1979 and then risen to 2.85 in 1981. With no change in duration-specific fertility rates (and therefore approximately constant cohort total fertility)
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From page 53... ...
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From page 54... ...
If the continued increase in age at marriage had ceased and not reversed, the total first- marriage rate would have returned to about 1.0; the persistent shortage in the annual number of first marriages caused by rising mean age at marriage would have ended. AGE PATTERNS OF MARITAL FERTILITY One of the benefits of the detailed information that appears in the report of the 1982 fertility survey is the feasibility of calculating age-specific marital fertility schedules.
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From page 55... ...
In Figure 13, marital fertility rates are shown relative to a schedule of "naturals fertility, with the ratio to natural fertility at ages 20-24 set equal to 1.00. The comparison with natural fertility provides indirect evidence of the extent to which marital fertility is affected by deliberate control through the use of contraception and abortion.
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From page 56... ...
, 1956, 1961, 1970, 1975, and 1980: China Figure 13, the calculated marital fertility rates are divided by a set of natural fertility rates, with the two schedules -- a schedule for China and an average of natural fertility schedules selected for good quality of data from those cited by Henry (Coale and Trussell, 1974) -brought to the same average at ages 20-24.
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From page 57... ...
The 1963/1956 ratio of marital fertility rates by five-year intervals for women aged 20-24 to 35-39 varies only from 1.33 to 1.38. The 1963/1961 ratio of marital fertility rates increases from 2.06 at 20-24 to 2.70 at 35-39, possibly because of the cessation of whatever slight degree of contraceptive practice there may have been in 1960-61 or possibly because the catastrophic situation in 1960-61 impaired the fertility of older women more than the fertility of younger women.
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From page 58... ...
; but in 1970 this decline was almost certainly the result of an increase in deliberate control with age and not to the biological factors that may have affected older women disproportionately in 1960-61. In 1975 the steep fall of fertility relative to natural fertility clearly shows the much greater effect of fertility restriction among older women; by 1980 the decline in marital fertility with age is comparable to the structure of marital fertility in highly developed societies with total fertility rates below replacement levels.
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From page 59... ...
59 TABLE 8 Total Fertility Rates, Rural and Urban Populations, 1950-81: China Total Fertility Rate Year Rural Urban Urban/Rural 1950 5.963 5.001 .839 1951 5.904 4.719 .799 1952 6.667 5.521 .828 1953 6.183 5.402 .874 1954 6.390 5.732 .897 1955 6.391 5.665 .886 1956 5.974 5.333 .893 1957 6.504 5.943 .914 1958 5.775 5.253 .910 1959 4.323 4.172 .965 1960 3.996 4.057 1.015 1961 3.349 2.982 .890 1962 6.303 4.789 .760 1963 7.784 6.207 .797 1964 6.567 4.395 .669 1965 6.597 3.749 .568 1966 6.958 3.104 .446 1967 5.847 2.905 .497 1968 7.025 3.872 .551 1969 6.263 3.299 .527 1970 6.379 3.267 .512 1971 6.011 2.882 .479 1972 5.503 2.637 .479 1973 5.008 2.387 .477 1974 4.642 1.982 .427 1975 3.951 1.782 .451 1976 3.582 1.608 .449 1977 3.116 1.574 .505 1978 2.968 1.551 .523 1979 3.045 1.373 .451 1980 2.480 1.147 .463 1981 2.910 1.390 .478
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From page 60... ...
· . Rural Urban YEAR FIGURE 14 Total Fertility Rates, Rural and Urban Populations, 1950-81: China conform to the classic picture often ascribed to (but not always followed by)
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From page 61... ...
. 1 40 45 50 _ , 15 20 25 30 35 AGE 1980 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 AGE FIGURE 15 Age-Specific Fertility Rates, Rural (dotted line)
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From page 62... ...
Han and Minority Group Differences Another major difference in fertility in China is revealed by data on the childbearing rates of the rural Han population (the dominant Chinese ethnic group) and those of the ethnic minorities, with a total population of some 60 million persons (6 percent of the population)
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From page 63... ...
. 35 40 45 50 AGE FIGURE 16 Age-Specific Fertility Rates, Ethnic Minority Women (solid line)
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