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Review of the Prince William Sound, Alaska, Risk Assessment Study (1998) / Chapter Skim
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4 Conclusions and Recommendations of the Prince William Sound Study
Pages 31-35

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From page 31...
... However, the NRC committee believes that the results are not independent of each other because the same data sets and some common assumptions were used and, in some cases, were calibrated against each other. Therefore, similarities, especially without estimates of uncertainty, do not demonstrate the validity of the results.
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From page 32...
... From discussions dunng meetings with the PWS Study team, the NRC committee learned that the TAPS companies did not ad agree on recommended measures, but there is no ~ndication in the PWS Study of how that information was used, other than that self-reported failure rates were not used for companies with low management scores. The PWS steering committee and study group were involved regularly with the study, but it is not clear how or if the risk reduction measures were modified to satisfy requests from the steering committee.
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From page 33...
... The percentage reductions in human error used as modeling inputs are estimates. These error reductions may not actually occur if the risk reduction measures represented are implemented" (PWS Study 7.~)
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From page 34...
... However, based on weaknesses in the probabilities of human error, including the lack of reliable data and the necessanly arbitrary assumptions used to incorporate human error into the models, the NRC committee believes that the results regarding measures of human performance were not supported. The PWS Study itself warns the reader not to rely on these results: "Reducing human and organizational error and reducing vessel failure rates provide the most consistent and largest risk reductions.
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From page 35...
... If the objective of the PWS Study was to rationalize numerically and justify a risk reduction investment strategy, the use of a representative year raises many concems. For example, one might conclude that no additional risk reduction measures should be undertaken.
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Key Terms

  • risk reduction
  • reduction measures
  • study notes
  • study team
  • additional officer

  • human error
  • inbound tankers
  • oil outflow
  • failure rates
  • hinchinbrook entrance

  • reduction evaluation
  • fault tree
  • marcs model
  • pws steering
  • detailed risk

  • interactions potentially
  • rationalize numerically
  • modeling assumptions
  • average oil
  • risk intervention

  • human errors
  • exxon valdez
  • management scores
  • published list
  • tugs stationed

  • particular solutions
  • accident frequencies
  • involve vessels
  • standby vessel
  • reducing vessel


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