Review of the Prince William Sound, Alaska, Risk Assessment Study (1998) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix B: Overall Framework of Probabilistic Risk Analysis
Appendix B: Overall Framework of Probabilistic Risk Analysis
Pages 53-58
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From page 53... ...
Several models are available for risk analyses depending on the system and the type of information available. One option is the assembly model proposed by GalTick for the risk analysis of nuclear power plants (19841.
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PROBABILISTIC MODEL THAT TREATS HUMAN ERRORS AND CY11IER HUMAN FACTORS Human errors have been recognized as major contributors to the risk of failure in complex systems, and in particular, as a critical issue in maritime safety (NRC, 1976, 1981~. It has also been shown that most human errors are caused by management factors (e.g., Perrow, 1984; Weick, 1987; Reason, 199Oa, b; Claik and Short, 1993; Maurino et al.,1995~.
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) shows how a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA)
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for this particular failure mode is to compute the probability of release levels per time unit as a function of the conditional probabilities of control, grounding, breach size, and oil flow, given the events that precede them in the ID. The next step is conditioning the relevant variables on the external events (speed, wave height, and location of the loss of power)
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If one stops at the classical PRA flower level of Figure Bet) , technical failures leading to loss of propulsion are the fundamental causes of groundings.
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1984. Recent Case Studies and Advancements in Probabilistic Risk Assessment.
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