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Executive Summary
Pages 1-6

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From page 1...
... to provide a peer review of the PWS risk assessment. This report authored by the NRC Committee on Risk Assessment and Management of Marine Systems, is that review.
From page 2...
... The following discussion is a summary of the conclusions of the NRC committee's review of the PWS Sudy concerning its models, including the use of data, the treatment of human factors, the risk reduction measures analyzed in the study, and the applicability of this study to other locations. MODELS The PWS Study used three modeling approaches: MARCS imagine accident risk assessment system)
From page 3...
... HUMAN FACTORS Human factors must be a critical part of risk assessments, especially for crew-oriented marine systems. Based on related substantial work In the areas of aviation safety and The PWS Steering Committee includes the RCAC, the Alaska Deponent of Environmental Conservation, the U.S.
From page 4...
... Mix~ng worst cases with probabilities makes interpreting results extremely difficult. RISK REDUCTION MEASURES The PWS Steering Committee was involved regularly with the risk assessment study, but it is not clear if the recommended risk reduction measures were modified at the request of the steering committee.
From page 5...
... SUMMARY OF FINDINGS The PWS Risk Assessment Study is an important step forward in the use of probabilistic risk assessment methods for assessing the safety of transporting oil in large tankers in PWS. Strengths of the study include: attempts to use probabilistic methods at the basic modeling level; searches for data from available databases and well designed questionnaires; the presentation of results in a variety of forms; and stakeholder involvement.
From page 6...
... 6 REVIEW OF THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, AIASKA, RISK ASSESSMENT STUDY transparency in the modeling, the NRC committee concludes that the PWS Study is a first step in the right direction but that applying it directly to other areas will require major changes In methods and procedures. Changes that would make it more generally applicable include the following: · providing an overarching study framework · expanding the consideration of human factors · disclosing the underlying data · analyzing sensitivities and uncertainties A major improvement would be to ensure the study team's independence of the steer~ng committee, which should only be involved with establishing and monitoring specific goals and objectives and facilitating the collection of information.


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