Decade-to-Century-Scale Climate Variability and Change A Science Strategy (1998) / Chapter Skim
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2 Climate Attributes That Influence Society
2 Climate Attributes That Influence Society
Pages 9-24
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From page 9... ...
However, with regard to developing a science strategy for understanding future climate change and variability, these six attributes are of particular importance. They have been demonstrated to undergo significant variability over decade-to-century time scales in the past and are therefore likely to do so in the future, and they are intimately entwined within the climate system that is the focus of this science plan.
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From page 10... ...
The patterns of rainfall in the Sahel region of Africa also show decadal- and centennial-scale variability (Figure 2-3~. The devastating impact of prolonged low rainfall on the mostly nomadic societies of sub-Saharan Africa has required massive and continuing infusions of world resources to avoid even greater disasters (Glantz, 1994~.
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0.30 ~ 0.25 O 0.20 ~ 0.1 5 .{ 0.10 0.05 Preboreal Younger Dryas Bolling/Allerod Last Glacial Maximum -30 -35 ~ _ -- 0 ~ _ - 45 10~100 11~100 12~100 13~100 14~100 15~100 16~100 17~100 18~100 Age (before AD 1950) FIGURE 2-4 Snow accumulation in Greenland as a function of time from GISP 2 ice cores (bottom trace)
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In the United States, the overall pattern of temperature change (Figure 2-7) has been similar to the global pattern, but geographically there are strong regional differences (Dettinger et al., 1995; Karl et al., 19961.
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Many countries are still vulnerable to anomalous climatic conditions, especially where agricultural production barely balances the needs of a growing population. Glacial deposits in the mountainous western United States and Canada, tree-line and tree-ring studies, and anecdotal historical evidence indicate that many parts of North America also experienced Little Ice Age conditions similar to those of western Europe.
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Variations in solar-cycle length and Northern Hemisphere climate anomalies parallel each other over the last 100 years (Friis-Christensen and Lassen, 1991; Labitzke and van Loon, 1993) , and solar activity and sea surface temperature track each other well over the past 130 years (Reid, 1991; White et al., 1997b)
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16 DECADE-TO-CENTURY-SCALE CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE: A SCIENCE STRATEGY 200% 1 50% 100% ._ `~5 50%c' 0% -50% or\ o ~ o o - Moo ~ oOO ° O n ~00 0 a Power RAF =1.1 - - - Linear RAF =1.1 0 Measured 1 -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% Change in Ozone FIGURE 2-10 UV-B radiation reaching the Earth's surface as a function of ozone column, from both measurements and models. (RAF is a radiation amplification factor.)
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From page 17... ...
In coastal regions, the high winds drive heavy waves and surges that cause flooding and beach erosion, often inflicting considerable, sometimes irreversible, damage on coastal communities and ecosystems. The entire landscape can be permanently altered.
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For example, in the mid-latitudes, wintertime extratropical cyclonic storms extend over hundreds to thousands of kilometers, although their severe weather is,generally associated with smaller-scale features such as fronts and squall lines embedded in the large-scale disturbance (see, e.g., Wallace and Hobbs, 1977~. In the subtropical and mid-latitude land areas, severe storms occur in all seasons (including summer)
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directly related to improvements in the National Weather Service's ability to forecast hurricane tracks and intensities, as well as to improvements in the dissemination speed and coverage of hurricane warnings. The declining number of intense hurricanes has also contributed to the decrease in mortality.
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Consequently, rising (relative) sea level affects coastal communities via inundation, erosion of land, saltwater intrusion, elevated water tables, and increased flooding and storm damage (Nicholls and Leatherman, 1994~.
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Low-frequency atmospheric variability influences coastal sea level on longer time scales, and planetary waves can propagate these changes over very large spatial scales, influencing regions well away from the local source of the disturbance. For example, sea-level changes ~ ~, , 10 5 O 1 850 1 900 YEAR 1 950 2000 FIGURE 2-16 Variations in sea level at San Francisco since 1855, from data in Spencer and Woodworth (19931.
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Ecosystems harbor the genetic diversity of life; the continuity of our food supply partially depends on the existence of wild strains that may possess resistance against emerging plant diseases and pests. Wild varieties offer the potential for higher crop yields, for new cultivars adapted to changed climatic conditions, or for en tirely new crops.
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has revealed a remarkable coincidence with decadal changes in the North Pacific sea surface temperature (Mantua et al., 1997~. Decadal-scale changes in the extent of the Sahel have also been documented PDO , , , -~.uh~l.2.
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From page 24... ...
(1995) document a shift in the community structure of invertebrate fauna in a California rocky intertidal zone consistent with observations of warming sea surface temperature between 1932 and 1993.
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