Welfare, the Family, and Reproductive Behavior Research Perspectives (1998) / Chapter Skim
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2 The Changing Circumstances of Marriage and Fertility in the United States
2 The Changing Circumstances of Marriage and Fertility in the United States
Pages 9-32
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From page 9... ...
It also examines trends in the proximate factors that affect fertility, such as sexual behavior, contraception and abortion, because if welfare programs have affected fertility among unmarried women, the effects would have to be channeled through one or more of these factors. The paper concludes with a brief look at trends in out-of-wedlock childbearing among populations that vary in their reliance on welfare programs.
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From page 10... ...
The intervening period from 1940 to 1970 saw, first, increasing fertility rates, culmi nating with the peak of the baby boom in the late 1950s, and then steadily declining rates until the early 1970s (Ventura et al., 1995a)
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From page 11... ...
In 1993, birth rates among women under age 30 had declined relative to their 1972 levels; the peak age of childbearing had shifted to the late twenties by a slight margin, and the risks of giving birth during the thirties had increased by about one-third. The fertility of women aged 30 and older accounted for 29.2 percent of the total fertility rate in 1993, up from 22.6 percent in 1972.
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From page 12... ...
The marriage rate for unmarried women aged 15 and older has been declining since the early 1970s, when it had a modest resurgence following another steady decline from the postwar peak (Figure 2-3~. These overall rates tell only part of the story, however.
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From page 13... ...
Rates for women aged 20-24 fell from 220 per 1,000 to 93 per 1,000 during the same penod. Rates for women in their late twenties and early thirties changed far less, declining during the 1970s but increasing during the 1980s.
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From page 14... ...
have demonstrated that increases in cohabitation substantially offset declines in marriage between cohorts of women born in 19401944 and 1960-1964. Thus, although only 61 percent of the later cohort married 2It is useful to examine both vital statistics and Current Population Survey data on trends in marriage because they have complementary strengths and weaknesses.
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From page 15... ...
. THE UBIQUITOUS RISE OF NONMARITAL FERTILITY At the intersection of these trends in fertility and marriage we find a phenomenon that has drawn increasing attention from policy makers and the public:
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From page 16... ...
Since the mid-1970s, · the population of reproductive age has shifted toward an older age distribution, putting slight downward pressure on the nonmarital birth ratio; · the percentage of unmarried has increased at each age, as we have seen; · age-specific birth rates for married women have generally increased, al 3The increase in the percentage of births occurring outside of marriage slowed after 1993, hovering between 32 percent and 33 percent during the years 1994-1996 (Ventura et al., 1997)
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From page 17... ...
SOURCE: Department of Health and Human Services (1995~. though the overall marital birth rate has declined because the married population has become increasingly older; and · age-specific birth rates for unmarried women increased sharply at all ages (Figure 2-8~; note, however, that this was a reversal from a sharp downward trend in such rates during the preceding decade for all age groups except teenagers.
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From page 18... ...
The figures show that since the early 1970s, the major factor driving the increase in the nonmarital birth ratio for black women (top panel) was the increase in the proportion unmarried.
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From page 19... ...
(19961. PROXIMATE FACTORS: PATHWAYS FOR THE EFFECTS OF WELFARE ON NONMARITAL FERTILITY Births to unmarried women occur as the result of a series of behaviors and choices made by women and their partners.
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From page 20... ...
In 1987, nearly 9 in 10 pregnancies experienced by never-married women, and 7 in 10 experienced by formerly married women, were unintended (Forrest, 1994~. One way that welfare programs could affect nonmarital fertility is by encouraging intentional childbearing among unmarried women.
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From page 21... ...
Trend data on sexual activity of the unmarried population are available for women for the period 1982-1988. These data show that during this period, the percentage of never-married women who had had intercourse in the last 3 months increased from 45 percent to 49 percent; the percentage of sexually active among the formerly married declined during the period, from 68 percent to 61 percent (Forrest and Singh, 1990~.
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From page 22... ...
Figure 2-13 shows the trend in pregnancy rates for married and unmarried women using an approximate measure based on pregnancies ending in abortion or birth.4 Pregnancy rates for unmarried women increased most rapidly during the 1970s, 4This measure is calculated by combining data on abortion rates by year and marital status with birth rates in which the year of ``birth,, is moved up by 6 months. Thus, the rates refer to a time period a few months after conceptions occurred and do not include conceptions ending in spontaneous fetal loss (Stanley Henshaw, personal communication)
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From page 23... ...
Pregnancy rates for 1980,1990, and 1991 calculated by Ventura and her colleagues confirm this pattern and show that the increase during the 19801990 period was confined to unmarried white women: pregnancy rates for unmarried black women fell during this time (Ventura et al., 1995b)
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From page 24... ...
Considering only those pregnancies ending in live birth, they demonstrate that the rate of nonmarital birth would have increased only marginally between the early 1960s and the mid-1980s if unmarried pregnant women had continued to marry between conception and birth at the same rate as they had in 1963. Trends in the sexual behavior of unmarried women, and in their choice of abortion and "shotgun" marriage in response to out-of-wedlock pregnancy, reflect important changes in the meaning of marriage in our society.
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From page 25... ...
In this sense, change in the reproductive behaviors of unmarried women is inextricably interwoven with changes in marriage. TRENDS BY RACE AND SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS To this point, I have mainly focused on trends in fertility, marriage, and outof-wedlock fertility in the U.S.
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From page 26... ...
Compared with white women, black women experienced a steeper increase in the percentage unmarried among women aged 20-29 and a sharper decrease in the percentage marrying between the conception of a premarital birth and its delivery. The trends for which white women have experienced greatest change all involve reproductive behaviors outside of marriage, and in all of these areas the greater changes among white women have narrowed the differences between the racial 7Published national statistics on marriage and childbearing, and on out-of-wedlock childbearing in particular, are rarely presented by income or poverty status.
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From page 27... ...
Rates of teen premarital sex and out-of-wedlock pregnancy and birth rates have all increased more for whites (and in some cases decreased for blacks) ; abortion ratios have dropped more steeply for white than black women.
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From page 28... ...
Out-of-wedlock childbearing is still much higher among members of the less advantaged educational and occupational groups. TABLE 2-3 Percentage Unmarried at Survey Date Among Women Aged 15 44 Who Had a Child in the Past Year, by Education and Occupation of Employed Women: June 1990 and June 1994 1990 1994 Change (%)
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From page 29... ...
Further, the meaning of marriage as a boundary line for behaviors such as sexual activity, coresidential unions, pregnancy, and birth has diminished sharply. Changes in the reproductive behaviors of unmarried women have clearly contributed to the increase in out-of-wedlock births, but the changing behavior of this population may reflect in part its changing composition, since it has expanded to include many who would have married at an earlier age one or more decades ago.
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From page 30... ...
Monthly Vital Statistics Report 43(12 Suppl.)
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From page 31... ...
1996 Marital status and living arrangements: March, 1994. Current Population Reports, Series P20-484.
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From page 32... ...
Henshaw 1995b Trends in Pregnancies and Pregnancy Rates: Estimates for the United States, 1980-92. Monthly Vital Statistics Report 43(11 Suppl.)
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