Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior Application to Military Simulations (1998) / Chapter Skim
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11 Information Warfare: A Structural Perspective
11 Information Warfare: A Structural Perspective
Pages 301-319
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As the amount of information available via satellite increases, will regimental staff personnel be more or less likely to notice critical changes in the tactical situation? Questions such as these are central to the information warfare context.
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It is these aspects that will need to be integrated into existing models of information warfare and existing estimates of vulnerability if these models and estimates are to better reflect human behavior. Consider the role played by these three aspects (structure, diffusion, and belief formation)
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This chapter focuses primarily on the role of structural factors and existing models of the way they influence information diffusion and belief formation. We note in passing that there is also a great deal of work on the technological factors associated with information warfare; however, such concerns are not the focus here.
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Numerous empirical studies point to the importance of structure in providing, or preventing, access to specific information. Nonetheless, most models of information diffusion (and of belief formation)
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The ties can be based on any type of linkage, such as economic, advice, friendship, command, control, access, trust, or allied. The study of social networks is a scientific discipline focused on examining social structure as a network and understanding its impact on individual, group, organizational, and community behavior (Wellman and Berkowitz, 1988~.
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However, it is not known whether these limitations are critical with regard to using these models in an information warfare context. Early diffusion models were based on a contagion model, in which everyone who came into contact with new information learned it.
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Contrary to intuition and some of the literature on innovation, the conditions that lead to unexpected adoption across an entire organization are enhanced by the following factors: · A high level of viscosity (that is, a low degree of free movement of and interaction among people throughout the organization) · The initial group of innovators being located at the periphery of the organization, not at the center The controversial information model has several key features.
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The Constructural Model According to the Nonstructural model, both the individual cognitive world and the sociocultural world are continuously constructed and reconstructed as individuals move concurrently through a cycle of action, adaptation, and motivation. During this process, not only does the sociocultural environment change, but social structure and culture convolve in synchrony.
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Thus, in contrast with the controversial information model, the individuals in the nonstructural model can hold all messages simultaneously. Beliefs are calculated on the basis of what messages are held.
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Four lines of research in this area are discussed below: mathematical models of belief formation in response to message passing, belief networks, social information processing models, and transactive memory. Mathematical Models Focusing on Information Passing Much of the social psychology work on belief formation focuses on how message, message content, and sender attributes affect beliefs.
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Attitude reinforcement theory suggests that erroneous beliefs persist only if they are extreme (Fishbein and Ajzen, 1975; Ajzen and Fishbein, 1980; Hunter et al., 1984~. Information processing theories suggest that erroneous beliefs persist only if the most recent information supports an erroneous conclusion (Hovland and Pritzker, 1957; Anderson and Hovland, 1957; Anderson, 1959; Anderson, 1964~.
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Thus these results provide basic support for the idea that there is a negative correlation between belief shift and current belief regardless of message content as predicted by information processing theory, but not for the idea that messages supporting an extreme belief will evoke a belief shift in the opposite direction. Both the reinforcement models and the information processing models are astructural; that is, they do not consider the individual's position in the underlying social or organizational structure.
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Such a model can combine the power of social network analysis to evaluate aspects of communication and hierarchy with the power of belief networks to evaluate aspects of individual information processing. Such models use the social network to make the belief networks dynamic.
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Currently, measures and ideas drawn from the social network literature are increasingly being used as the basis for operationalizing models of structural processes that influence belief and attitude formation (e.g., Rice and Aydin, 1991; Fulk, 1993; Shah, 1995~. With the exception of the models discussed in the previous section, the processes by which individuals are influenced by others are generally not specified completely at both the structural and cognitive levels.
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The literature on belief formation, particularly the formal models, also ignores communications technology. On the other hand, the literature on communications technology largely ignores the role of the extant social structure and the processes of belief formation.
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By and large, however, the diffusion models are relatively weak in representing belief formation. In contrast, the strength of the belief formation and social influence models is in their ability to accurately capture changes in beliefs.
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Given the ability to capture structural information routinely, it would be possible to begin systematically evaluating potential weak spots in existing C3I structures from an information warfare perspective. This information would also provide a basis for validating computational models in this area.
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would provide an important decision aid. Intermediate-Term Goals · Utilize multidisciplinary teams to develop prototype information warfare decision aids incorporating elements of both information diffusion and belief formation models.
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· Support basic research on converting moderator functions into models of how people cope with novel and extensive information.
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