Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior Application to Military Simulations (1998) / Chapter Skim
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13 Conclusions and Recommendations
13 Conclusions and Recommendations
Pages 329-342
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From page 329... ...
We recognize that DMSO is primarily a policy-making body and that, as an organization, it does not sponsor or execute specific modeling projects. In those areas in which DMSO does not participate directly, we recommend that it advocate an increased focus by the individual services on the objective of incorporating enhanced human behavior representation in the models used within the military modeling and simulation community.
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From page 330... ...
, we believe DMSO should advocate theory development and behavioral research that can lead to future generations of models of human and organizational behavior. Together, as illustrated in Figure 13.1, these initiatives constitute a program plan for human behavior representation development for many years to come.
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From page 333... ...
There are some good data on how fast soldiers can walk on various kinds of terrain and how fast tanks can move, but data are sparse on such things as the accuracy of localization of gun shots in the battlefield, the time it takes to communicate a message from one echelon to the next by various media, and the flexibility of different command and control structures. These data are needed for a variety of purposes, as indicated in Figure 13.2: to support the development of measures of accreditation, to provide benchmark performance for comparison with model outputs in validation studies, to help set the parameters of the actual models of real-world tasks and test and evaluate the efficacy of those models, and to challenge existing theory and lead to new conceptions that will provide the grist for future models.
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From page 334... ...
For this goal to be achieved, there must be sustained effort that is focused on quantitative performance metrics and that can influence evaluation across a range of modeling projects. There are special considerations involved in human behavior representation that warrant having accreditation procedures specific to this class of behavioral models.
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From page 335... ...
Unit-level models are often particularly difficult to validate in depth because of the large amounts of data required. Finally, to bring objectivity and specialized knowledge to the validation process, the panel suggests that the validation team include specialists in modeling and validation who have not participated in the actual model development.
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From page 336... ...
at the joint service level represents a starting point for understanding the tasks to be incorporated into models and simulations but only a starting point. For example, combat instruction sets need to be extended to all services, deeper task analyses are required for model development purposes, and existing descriptions do not cover typical requirements for modeling large units.
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From page 337... ...
From the battlefield perspective, the tactical effects were much like those of real artillery batteries. Support Focused Modeling Efforts Once high-priority modeling requirements have been established, we recommend sustained support in focused areas for human behavior model development that is responsive to the methodological approach outlined in Chapter 12.
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From page 338... ...
Without such mixes of appropriate expertise, it is likely that modelers will simply reinvent prior art or pursue unproductive alternatives. Benchmark We recommend the conduct of periodic modeling exercises throughout model development to benchmark the progress being made and enable a focus on the most important shortfalls of the prototype models.
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From page 339... ...
Promote Interoperability In concert with model development, DMSO should evolve policy to promote interoperability among models representing human behavior. Although needs for human behavior representation are common across the services, it is simplistic to contemplate a single model of human behavior that could be used for all military simulation purposes, given the extent to which human behavior depends on both task and environment.
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From page 340... ...
Their research tends to emphasize toy problems and predictive modeling in restricted experimental paradigms for which data collection is relatively easy. To be useful for the representation of military human behavior, the research needs to be focused on the goal of integration into larger military simulation contexts and on specific military modeling needs.
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From page 341... ...
We recommend that graduate and postdoctoral fellowships in human behavior representation and modeling be provided. Institutions wishing to offer such fellowships would have to demonstrate that they could provide interdisciplinary education and training in the areas of human behavior representation, modeling, and military applications.
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From page 342... ...
Human behavior representation is critical for the military services as they expand their reliance on the outputs from models and simulations for their activities in management, decision making, and training. In this report, the panel has outlined how we believe such modeling can proceed in the short, medium, and long terms so that DMSO and the military services can reap the greatest benefit from their allocation of resources in this critical area.
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