A Scientific Strategy for U.S. Participation in the GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) Component of the CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) Programme (1998) / Chapter Skim
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9 Modeling
9 Modeling
Pages 39-44
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From page 39... ...
The panel suggests that the modeling efforts under TOGA, which dealt with time and space scales similar to those addressed by GOALS, can serve as examples of the range of activities envisioned for GOALS and as the starting point for modeling in the new program. It is recalled that skillful forecasts by empirical models identified some of the predictable components of the climate system.
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From page 40... ...
In particular, the interface fluxes of various quantities such as heat, moisture, and momentum need to be represented more accurately in the models. Atmospheric General Circulation Models need to be improved to a stage where, when driven with prescribed observed SST, they simulate realistically the observed annual cycle and interannual variability of the surface wind stress and heat flux, as well as the global atmospheric circulation and rainfall.
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From page 41... ...
In this connection, the composite models should be tested by assessing their ability to simulate and predict key parameters and variables. Significant improvements are considered necessary in coupled ocean-atmosphere-land models so that they can realistically simulate the observed annual climate cycle and its higher frequency components, as well as the statistics of the observed interannual variability of tropical SST, land surface temperature, the global atmospheric circulation, and rainfall.
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From page 42... ...
With regard to applications and human dimensions, the panel recommends that auxiliary models be designed to predict societally important quantities not routinely produced by seasonal-to-interannual climate forecast models. These models can be based on both empirical and physical techniques and could involve predictions of quantities including regional rainfall and storm track activity that are not predicted by intermediate models or, for example, the likelihood of tropical storms or extreme events that are not predicted by coupled GCMs.
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From page 43... ...
To this end, the panel recommends the establishment of standardized procedures and protocols for the ongoing evaluation of experimental forecasts and the comparison of these forecasts with empirical/statistical prediction methods. Of particular importance is the identification of regions, circulation features, or phenomena that have above-average predictability on seasonal time scales.
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From page 44... ...
OBSERVING SYSTEM SIMULATION Models are useful for estimating the utility of particular measurements. To the extent that models accurately simulate the statistics of the full spectrum of energetic space and time scales that occur in nature, they can be used to set resolution requirements that will avoid undersampling and aliasing.
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