A Scientific Strategy for U.S. Participation in the GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) Component of the CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) Programme (1998) / Chapter Skim
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10 Applications and Human Dimensions
10 Applications and Human Dimensions
Pages 45-50
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From page 45... ...
Importantly, as prediction skill improves as expected through the implementation of GOALS, it is crucial that the predictive information provided be in a form that is useful for practical applications in social, economic, industrial, and other resource management activities. In the past, the physical scientific community has grappled with this problem, albeit with some lack of success on account of the rather substantial gaps between the needs of the user for information and the products generated by forecast models.
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From page 46... ...
, the social science community (those interested in understanding impacts on human systems and institutional issues associated with the use of forecast information) , and the physical sciences community (those involved in producing climate information and the development of forecast models and operational climate predictions)
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From page 47... ...
To an extent, the shorter time scale injects a more serious challenge because of its relatively rapid verifiability. In fact, the credibility and accuracy of the forecast products, and the manner in which they are put to use, is likely to determine their acceptance by the broader applications communities where decisions are made on a daily basis that have a direct impact on finances and resource allocations.
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From page 48... ...
Some result from a lack of understanding of the needs of various applications sectors or due to limitations in current forecasting skill, while others stem from difficulties in transforming the typical probabilistic forecasts into informed decision making. One major problem, namely the lack of lead time provided in forecasts, should be substantially alleviated by the implementation of GOALS, given its primary focus is the improvement of climate predictions in the seasonal-to-interannual time scale.
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From page 49... ...
Similarly, the panel recommends that the physical science community undertake the following activities: 1. review the information and climate prediction products that can be provided in the seasonal-to-interannual time scale today, and suggest steps that can be taken to address currently unmet requirements; and 2.
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From page 50... ...
Corresponding to the above, the physical science community should investigate how prediction information, albeit with uncertainty, can be presented in terms most useful for decision makers. INSTITUTIONAL MECHANISMS The execution of the applications and human dimensions aspect of GOALS will need institutional mechanisms involving national and international programs directed at transforming and using the results of scientific research.
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