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2 The Future Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases in Developing Countries
Pages 24-36

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From page 24...
... Second, older populations will be more exposed to risk factors including tobacco, high blood pressure, diets high in saturated fat, obesity, and a sedentary life-style. Third, populations may change their use of preventive and curative health services.
From page 25...
... males suggest that the combination of these three risk factors elevates risk severalfold compared with any single risk factor. Second, the model does not consider the 20 percent increased risk of CVD caused by childhood deprivation, as measured by low birthweight or poor nutritional status (Rich-Edwards et al., 1997~.
From page 27...
... TABLE 2-2 Estimated Number of CVD Deaths (in millions) Worldwide Attributable to Cigarette Smoking and Percentage of Total Estimated Global Deaths 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020 1990 2000 2010 2020 CVD deaths attributable to ciga rette smoking 0.96 1.40 1.93 2.61 Percentage of total deaths 1.9 2.5 3.2 3.8 SOURCE: Ad Hoc Committee, 1996.
From page 28...
... In urban China, mean body mass index, blood pressure, and cholesterol rose over a three-year period in the late 1980s (Keil and Kuulasmaa, 19891. A study in rural and urban India found values of body mass index, blood pressure, fasting blood cholesterol, and diabetes approaching those of Indian populations in the West.
From page 29...
... The challenge is to address these environmental determinants effectively, even before research identifies specific subgroups with exceptional genetic risk (Breslow, 1997, Labarthe, 1998~. Although CVD mortality early in the epidemiologic transition tends to be highest among the well educated and affluent, most countries that have undergone the epidemiologic transition also observe CVD mortality to be high in population groups with low levels of income and education.
From page 30...
... Underlying reasons appear to be the maturing tobacco epidemic, increased saturated fat intake, elevated blood pressure, and poor access to primary and secondary preventive care. The role of risk factors remains poorly understood but offers opportunities for research.
From page 31...
... and potential changes in this distribution. Top: Expected shift in population distribution of serum cholesterol values with application of high-nsk approach (Adult Treatment Panel Guidelines of National Cholesterol Education Program)
From page 32...
... in survivors of acute myocardial infarction could dramatically reduce CVD deaths in developing countries. As indicated in Table 2-3, the relatively low-cost combination of aspirin and beta-blockers after acute myocardial infarction could avoid about 300,000 deaths due to ischemic heart disease (IHD)
From page 33...
... Research on ways to promote smoking cessation deserves support. ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES The economic consequences of the increasing CVD burden include household health and composition, lost production and earnings, and lost investment and consumption (Over et al., 1994~.
From page 34...
... 34 o Cal As ._ o ¢ Cal Cal o V)
From page 35...
... Control of rising CVD costs will have to rely on the following guidelines: (1) public policies that subsidize prevention and low-cost clinical care ahead of more expensive curative interventions; (2)
From page 36...
... 36 CONTROL OF CARDlOVASCUL~AR DISEASES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES vascular package. Some middle-income countries might be able to introduce more tertiary services into a cost-effective package.


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