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Exposure of the American People to Iodine-131 from Nevada Nuclear-Bomb Tests Review of the National Cancer Institute Report and Public Health Implications (1999) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix B. Copy of the Memorandum from Dr. Charles Land to Dr. Richard Klausner
Pages 186-193

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From page 186...
... Richard Klausner DATE: September 23, 1997 TO: Dr. Richard Klausner, Director, NCI FROM: Charles Land, Ph.D., Health Statistician, DCEG/EBP/REB THROUGH: Director, DCEG SUBJECT: Calculation of lifetime thyroid cancer risk for an average thy roid dose of 0.02 Gy from I-131 in fallout My calculations of the thyroid cancer risk that might be associated with exposure to the American public to i3iI fallout from the Nevada Test Site resulted in an estimated range of 7,500 to 75,000 excess thyroid cancers during the lifetime of those exposed before 20 years of age.
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From page 187...
... With a linear dose-response model and lifetime excess risk, error introduced by acting as if the population 0-19 years of age in 1952 received all the dose that was actually received by those who were 0-19 years old during any part of the above-ground testing period is relatively unimportant. Column 4 gives age-specific average thyroid doses in red corresponding to the assumed average dose of 2 red (0.02 Gy)
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From page 188...
... The range of estimates does not take into account statistical uncertainty about the Ron coefficients or statistical and subjective uncertainty about the estimated average dose. The Ron estimate of ERRING = 7.7 had 95% confidence limits 2.128.7, corresponding to a geometric standard deviation (GSD)
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From page 189...
... Telles NC. Thyroid tumors following I-131 or localized x irradiation to the thyroid and the pituitary glands in rats.
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From page 191...
... Accordingly, it is reasonable to use the coefficients developed from data on x-ray and gamma-ray exposure, with an appropriate value for the relative biological effectiveness of i3iI compared to gamma rays or x rays.
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From page 192...
... population from Nevada Test Site fallout was converted to the following values for children: Exposure Age Estimated Average Dose <1 10.3 1-4 6.7 5-9 4.5 10-14 2.8 15-19 1.8 6. Lifetime cumulative thyroid cancer incidence rates of 0.25% for males and 0.64% for females, respectively, were assumed, based on the SEER report for 1973-1992.
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From page 193...
... for x ray and gamma ray (column 5) , times the assumed RBE for i3iI · the cumulative lifetime thyroid cancer risk for men or women (0.25% or 0.64%)
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Key Terms

  • cancer risk
  • x ray
  • thyroid dose
  • following exposure
  • confidence limits

  • estimated average
  • average dose
  • relative risk
  • gamma ray
  • time following

  • thyroid doses
  • excess thyroid
  • excess risk
  • lifetime excess
  • dose rates

  • excess relative
  • average thyroid
  • statistical uncertainty
  • estimated lifetime
  • lifetime thyroid

  • risk associated
  • increasing age
  • cumulative thyroid
  • thyroid cancers
  • conducted parallel

  • exposed population
  • external radiation
  • low doses
  • found near
  • using dose


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