Visionary Manufacturing Challenges for 2020 (1998) / Chapter Skim
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B Delphi Survey: Methodology and Results
B Delphi Survey: Methodology and Results
Pages 123-133
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From page 123... ...
At that time, the alternative would have been an extensive and costly data-collection process that included programming and executing computer models that could not be handled by available computers (Linstone and Turoff, 1975~. During the past three decades, the Delphi method has been used by corporations, universities, government agencies, and nonprofit organizations for planning, technical and strategic evaluations, and forecasting.
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From page 124... ...
Experiments carried out in the late 1960s and early 1970s demonstrated that the Delphi method has distinct advantages over traditional, interactive group processes when the best available information is the judgment of knowledgeable individuals, (Dalkey, 1969; Ziglio, 1996~. SURVEY ON VISIONARY MANUFACTURING CHALLENGES The NRC Delphi survey on visionary manufacturing challenges was designed to forecast manufacturing challenges for 2020 and to identify enabling technologies for research and development.
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Selection and Composition of Survey Participants Potential survey participants were identified using numerous mechanisms. Members of the Committee on Visionary Manufacturing Challenges identified both potential participants and individuals who could suggest potential participants.
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Implementation and Analysis of the Questionnaire 1 A letter describing the project was sent to potential participants prior to the first questionnaire. The purpose of the letter was to familiarize potential participants with the goals of the project and to send a personal request for cooperation from the committee chair.
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Two additional questions were added asking respondents to list research topics based on their prioritized enabling technologies and the manufacturing challenges that would be addressed by these technologies. A copy of the second questionnaire is attached in Appendix C
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TABLE B-3 Manufacturing Challenges Prioritized by International Experts in Manufacturing Identifier Manufacturing Challenge Votes Rank a Enhancement of workforce performance and satisfaction to 86 2 address rapidly changing and complex operational requirements and diverse culture-based issues b Constant, concurrent development ofinnovative products, 92 1 processes, and systems to meet shorter product life cycles, enhance value added, and advance manufacturing capabilities c Ability to develop and execute complex and dynamic alliances 52 5 and collaborations rapidly e f g Response to severe constraints on environmental impact and the increasing scarcity of materials and energy Achievement of the speed and flexibility for cost-effective fulfillment of customer demands for instant satisfaction with customized products 66 3 45 6 Adoption of rapidly developing technologies to increase and/or 40 adapt the core strength of the enterprise to the marketplace Development of an effective global infrastructure to support 36 8 optimal-scale manufacturing configurations Effective conversion of information to useful knowledge in an environment where the volume of available information is increasing rapidly 64 4
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E Direct machine/user interfaces that enhance human performance 49 5 and promote intelligent input (e.g., skill-leveraging, human commands transmitted directly to machine; human access to data via "bionic ears") F H I J Net shape, programmable, flexible forming processes that require no hard tooling (e.g., pulsed power autoshaping; forming finished assemblies from the melt)
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New sensor technology for precision process control (real-time sensors for machine self-calibration; self-verification; selfcorrection; self-improvement) 29 15 14 22 29 15 32 9 360-degree collaboration software (e.g., translate neural 16 21 knowledge base to language that is personalized to different thinking styles; enable workforce participation in technology design and development; interactive visualization)
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