Visionary Manufacturing Challenges for 2020 (1998) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
A Summary of Workshop on Visionary Manufacturing Challenges
A Summary of Workshop on Visionary Manufacturing Challenges
Pages 67-122
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From page 69... ...
Bollinger expressed confidence that this vision would be pertinent to many changes in society between now and the years beyond 2020. Bollinger defined the objective of the National Research Council Committee on Visionary Manufacturing Challenges, which had organized the workshop, as the identification of technologies and systems that are likely to be important for manufacturing in the decades after 2020 as a guide for funding current and future research.
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From page 70... ...
The purpose of this workshop, however, was to focus on the next century, to imagine the challenges and needs that could shape investment strategies for manufacturing research. Finally, Bollinger described the workshop itself, which was divided into four sessions, each of which would begin with thought-provoking presentations.
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From page 72... ...
He also believes we are entering a new economy, characterized by expanded global competition, with the focus on new methods of distribution and delivery and the integration of these functions with the manufacturing process. The social and political manifestations of this new regime include dramatic demographic shifts, democratization, decentralization, and other developments that will limit institutional power.
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From page 73... ...
The Anglo-American way of doing business is being adopted worldwide, including accounting practices, advertising, corporate finance, business education, and business ethics. English is the language of commerce and diplomacy, and more Chinese are learning English today than there are Americans.
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From page 74... ...
business enterprises are effectively digesting new computer technologies. Telecommunications.
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From page 75... ...
Robots and machine tools is the one major sector in which the United States is not even on the radar screen, although there are signs that it is making a comeback. Many other "comeback industries" in the United States, including heavy motorcycles (Harley Davidson)
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From page 76... ...
Compared to 1989, twice as many people work at home. A dramatic example is the phenomenon of "Lone Eagles," freelance professionals (knowledge workers)
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From page 77... ...
Industries that require substantial numbers of low-skilled laborers (e.g., manufacturers of shoes and apparel; see Figure A-2) are moving their operations to countries with low labor costs.
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From page 78... ...
78 600,000 400,000 O 200,000 Q of rat ~ -200,000 s o - 00,000 -600,000 -800,000 VISIONARY MANUFACTURING CHALLENGES FOR 2020 Korea _, i_N 1 1 1 1 1 _~_ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ~1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Japan ~ , -1,000,000 1 1 1 1 1 1 O ~ CM CO ~ ~ (D ret co ~ 0 ~ cad co ~ ~ (D rat co ~ 0 ~ cad ~ co co a)
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From page 79... ...
Access to markets and per capita income, 1990 7,000 8,000 9,000 .
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From page 80... ...
At' -500 000 ~' -1,000,000 VISIONARY MANUFACTURING CHALLENGES FOR 2020 USA / I 1 ~ / 1 / 1 I . ~ it_ Japan A' ,' ~ \ , Italy ~ _ ~ 1,500,000 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 ~ Cal co ~ us co ~ 00 I .,'~ ~ I 1, ,'~ L I I ~ ~r Germany _ ]
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From page 81... ...
Compliance is similar to remediation in many ways in that it also focuses on reducing local risk and treats environmental costs as overhead. The third approach is industrial ecology, or design for the environment.
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From page 83... ...
· Globalization and disintegration of manufacturing supply chains. The question is whether ownership of the intellectual content of a design entails ownership of the environmental problems that ensue.
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From page 84... ...
to include the end-uses of byproducts and waste . REENGINEERING THROUGH FRACTAL STRUCTURES Wilfried Sihn Fraunhofer Institute for Manufacturing Engineering and Automation, Stuttgart, Germany Wilfried Sihn's talk was divided into two sections.
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From page 85... ...
In addition to the characteristics listed above, the fractal company places a heavy emphasis on the value of employees. One core axiom of a fractal company is competitive strength and the lasting competitive advantages of safeguarding a company's human capital (see Figure A-6.
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From page 86... ...
Business enterprises will be paperless, and networking will be worldwide. According to Sihn, the major challenges faced by manufacturing enterprises in this environment will be the implementation of flexible, temporary cooperation models for virtual enterprises; knowledge management; value engineering; the creation of a culture of innovation; globalization; changing leadership strategies from confrontation to motivation and cooperation; resource shortages; competition in time; and competition in competence and cost.
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From page 87... ...
Pull technologies, on the other hand, are information technologies that enable companies to work around difficult problems. To predict the technologies manufacturing enterprises will need in 2020, Goranson believes we must first determine the problems businesses will have to solve.
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From page 88... ...
Investments in technologies to meet business demands may differ from investments the nation would make to improve or maintain public health. Goranson outlined a number of problems with existing approaches: product models are not tied to process models; businesses exploit social and cultural phenomena without the tools to evaluate the complexity of product combinations, the softness of projected demand, or the consequences of their actions; there is no formal modeling technology for soft dynamics; technology today tends to create homogeneity rather than diversity in the supply chain; there is no analysis-tocontrol linkage in our technology foundations; the complexity of the infrastructure is growing faster than the complexity of the enterprise.
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From page 89... ...
. LOOKING OUTSIDE THE BOX BUSINESS PRACTICES FOR INDUSTRIAL COMPETITIVENESS IN 2020 Rick Dove Paradigm Shift International, Oakland, California Rick Dove began his highly visual presentation by stating that we can't imagine 2020 because we can't look "outside the box" to foresee revolutionary developments.
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From page 90... ...
Dove suggested that in the year 2020, there will be people practices, rather then business practices, and that there will really be no time for businesses to practice at all; they will "just do it." Trends toward less constrained, more autonomous units will present challenges to ensuring ethical, or even "legal," behavior as autonomous, flexible, and unconstrained business units explore and test boundaries and borderlines in all directions. Dove believes that the innate competitiveness of people will preclude trust-based business relationships in the foreseeable future.
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From page 91... ...
Goranson Group 6: Lawrence Rhoades, Charles Carter, William Hanson, M Eugene Merchant, Richard Morley, Heinz Schmitt, Kathryn Whiting, George Hazelrigg Each group was asked to consider the following questions: 1.
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From page 92... ...
Manufactunng will include the entire supply chain, i.e., marketing, distnbution, design, and the in-home manufacturing and assembly of goods. There will be more than one type of manufacturing organization in 2020.
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From page 93... ...
.. 93 environmentally inendly products and processes mass customization along with mass production local manufacturing machines that are easy to operate and repair networked/holonic/virtual work organizations along with extended megacorporations companies with access to all educational systems in situ sales, distribution, and manufacturing knowledge management constant and rapid product innovation reconfigurable/reprogrammable factories global enterprises GROUP TWO Question 1: Challenges for Manufacturing in 2020 The group first addressed the question of the most important challenges that the manufacturing industry must consider to compete successfully in 2020.
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From page 94... ...
· The workforce will be more educated, more capable, and more responsible. · Manufacturing will be done in networks of organizations, "global production networks." · We will continue to mix high-volume mass production with low-volume and high-volume customization.
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From page 95... ...
Companies will have to optimize their performance by fully utilizing diverse global human resources. Based on this premise, the group identified eight critical challenges: managing the enterprise as a system; educating the workforce; accommodating cultural diversity; managing knowledge; managing environmental impacts; adapting to social instabilities; sustaining customer relationships; and managing innovation.
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From page 96... ...
The challenges to future manufacturing enterprises will be to transform the available information into useful knowledge for all relevant parts of the value chain and to manage knowledge assets in a way that yields competitive advantage. Some discussion participants described the concept of the "thin edge" as critical, time-perishable product and knowledge assets.
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From page 97... ...
GROUP FOUR Question 1: Manufacturing Challenges for 2020 Some participants identified the following important challenges that will be faced by the manufacturing industry in 2020: .
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From page 98... ...
GROUP FIVE Group participants identified the following global crises that they believed could affect manufacturing enterprises in 2020: global energy crises, e.g., the depletion of fossil fuels social crises, e.g., war between the haves and the have-nots environmental crises, e.g., shortages of clean water monetary collapse global health crises, e.g., pandemics social upheavals caused by a radical shift to cost-effective manufacturing vulnerability of information, e.g., breaches of computer security Question 1: Challenges for Manufacturing in 2020 The group discussed the challenges to manufacturing that would result from the crises described above, including changes in living conditions, education (with industrial involvement) , changing the skill base to a knowledge base, establishing meaningful reward systems, and resolving cultural conflicts, defining communities, and changing the structure of companies.
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From page 99... ...
According to some participants, challenges to manufacturing enterprises in 2020 will include the development of upgradeable product platforms, the presumed necessity to surrender autonomy in favor of collaborations, and the protection of knowledge assets. Group participants identified the following important trends: · Extended enterprises will be dominant.
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From page 100... ...
Providing products, reward systems, and organizational structures that more effectively resolve the conflicting interests of these stakeholders could dramatically reduce the waste and stress of intra-enterprise conflicts. The challenges identified by group participants are summarized below: · resolving the interests and conflicts of stakeholders · protecting knowledge assets while increasing employee mobility · attracting manufacturing employees by maintaining a high standard of living, providing education, and improving management · changing from skill-based to knowledge-based enterprises · making manufacturing more attractive as a career · rewarding employees focusing on the future .
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From page 101... ...
will be more important than labor costs. Education will become much more efficient, utilizing "microphone" technologies (a la Edward Leamer)
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From page 102... ...
This technology is critical to ensuring that the manufacturing enterprise has the flexibility to change. The third area is hardware and software technologies that support skilled and knowledgeable workers (instead of replacing them)
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From page 103... ...
He believes that an integrated perspective focused on people and systems would maximize peoples' capabilities, opportunities, and participation. The research areas that would support this integrated perspective are listed below: .
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From page 104... ...
Unfortunately, they also become more expensive for businesses with time because of inefficiencies and medical costs, among other things. In the future, people will retain control of manufacturing processes and will have increasing expectations.
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From page 105... ...
105 diverse, with selective mutation, distributed strength, and "portfolioism" to enable small companies to bargain collectively. Bomba emphasized the need for knowledge workers.
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From page 106... ...
Amidon then outlined the three main messages of her presentation: we are moving into a "knowledge economy" in which knowledge and innovation management will be essential; innovation can be managed; knowledge and innovation management will be part of the larger picture of manufacturing. The knowledge economy will differ from its predecessors, the agricultural economy, the industrial economy, and the short-lived information age.
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From page 107... ...
A detailed outline of the transformation of each business function (e.g., finance, human resources, quality, information technology, research and development, manufacturing) can be found in Amidon's recent book, Innovation Strategy for the Knowledge Economy: The Ken Awakening (Amidon, 1997~.
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From page 108... ...
1997. Innovation Strategy for the Knowledge Economy: The Ken Awakening.
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From page 109... ...
He and his co-workers started the project with an Apple computer. They built an operating system on top of the Apple operating system, but it was still too difficult for the educational community to use.
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From page 110... ...
Shortened product life cycles will demand high speed and the capacity for representative prototyping. The manufacturing line will be required to accommodate the introduction of new products with minimum modifications to manufacturing processes or equipment.
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From page 111... ...
NEMI focuses on packaging, interconnects, and supply chain technologies and some auxiliary topics, such as storage, optics, and displays. COMPLEXITY THEORY NEW WAYS TO THINK ABOUT MANUFACTURING Richard Morley Morley and Associates, Milford, New Hampshire Richard Morley introduced chaos theory by reminding workshop participants that people have always been too conservative in predicting the future; some of the brightest individuals of the past have predicted that certain inventions were impossible, only to be proven wrong.
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From page 112... ...
The birds follow a few simple rules: head for the nest, stay a fixed distance from other birds, fly at a constant speed, and slow down at corners. This "group intelligence" seems to solve the very complex problem of hundreds of components working toward the same goal without central control.
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From page 113... ...
Eugene Merchant, Mike McEvoy, Brian Turner, Patricia Whitman Group 2: Barbara Fossum, William Hanson, Richard Jarman, Richard Kegg, Louis Kiefer, Rakesh Mahajan, Kathryn Whiting Group 3: David Hagen, Debra Amidon, Rick Dove, John Decaire, David Miska, Leo Plonsky, Heinz Schmitt Group 4: Eugene Wong, Nathan Cloud, Thomas Crumm, H.T. Goranson, Woody Noxon, Wilfried Sihn, James Solberg, Gordon Forward Group 5: Donald Frey, Richard Altman, Steven Bomba, David Hardt, Robert Hocken, Richard Morley, Richard Neal Group 6: Lawrence Rhoades, Bill Kay, Howard Kuhn, Eric Larson, Edward Leamer, F
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From page 114... ...
workers Research and development · standards for software compatibility or robust software that does not need standards · transparent systems understandable to everyone · methods to make data accessible to everyone (protocols, security, format, interoperability) · information filtering · representation of social and organizational processes across cultures in formats accessible to nonexperts · intelligent agents · interactive, 3-D, simulation-based visualizations of complex structures integrating behavioral, organizational, and people issues with other analyses · using sound and color for pattern analysis · methods to merge historical data with simulation systems · simulation of alternative business processes · methods to capture and catalogue development and problem-solving deci sion processes for real-time data retrieval Intelligent Communication Systems Technical challenges · involving of all enterprise operations in information exchange · systems compatibility between subcontractors and partners .
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From page 115... ...
Conversion Processes and Tools Technical challenges · processing tools for flexible and customized manufacturing · process technologies to produce lot sizes of one competitively · basic understanding of conversion processes to allow modeling and simulation incorporation of learning and real-time training equipment and methods for portable manufacturing sensors for process controls in closed-loop systems equipment and methods for small-scale manufacturing manufacturing processes that can "grow" products processes that can create products using ultrafine particles sensory feedback and data transmission technologies to enable remote manufacturing · application of rapid prototyping technology for designing and producing tooling
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From page 116... ...
116 Research and development VISIONARY MANUFACTURING CHALLENGES FOR 2020 integrated systems that combine software, sensors, and actuators process models and supporting data for conversion processes intelligent process representations and models for conversion processes intelligent process algorithms that can create flexible process models smarter equipment that uses modeling and simulation tools for learning remote sensing of human feedback faster nanotechnology processes Sustainability Technical challenges · new technologies for handling manufacturing process waste · methods of portable manufacturing for reclaiming process waste · incorporating environmental sustainability into engineering design pro cesses · manufacturing practices and policies that support sustainable, global environments · heat exchangers and efficient co-generation processes to recovery energy from waste · more energy-efficient products and systems Research and development · lighter, smaller equipment · efficient manufacturing processes with reduced scales of operation · simulations and databases for engineering design · methods and data that can predict the effects of alternative manufacturing processes on the global environment Materials Technical challenges · advanced nanoparticle materials · applications of genetic engineering to high-volume manufacturing · materials that decompose to elementary particles New Products Technical challenges · portable energy storage (e.g., fuel cells and polymer batteries) · human interface components (e.g., speech recognition)
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From page 117... ...
Rapid change could cause significant problems for manufacturing. Manufacturing enterprises will have to foster innovation among all employees; create an environment that encourages innovation; link innovation to business strategy; and teach and apply creative thinking skills.
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From page 118... ...
, including software and hardware that is connectable automatically and can use digital design data without human intervention integrating creative thinking skills into management practices GROUP THREE Question 3: Technical Challenges Group discussions initially focused on identifying the top technical challenges for manufacturing. A significant amount of time was spent discussing the interplay and interdependencies of the following three technical challenges: · creating, designing, and exploiting knowledge systems developing real-time, on-demand learning at individual, team, and company levels and tailoring course designs and delivery methods to the learning modes of the students developing information technologies, including network and user interfaces, software libraries for manufacturing, "plug and play" systems, and software productivity Other challenges that received strong support from individual participants included the following: revolutionizing unit process technology with quantum leaps in process capabilities.
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From page 119... ...
. 119 determination and identification of individual learning styles to facilitate the development of appropriate learning materials and delivery systems with emphasis on real-time and on-demand learning · system-independent knowledge representations that can distribute knowledge throughout the entire manufacturing enterprise breakthrough technologies in free-form fabrication, micro-manufacturing, nanomanufacturing, and biomanufacturing processes · simulation technologies that can predict product/process reliability · tools for collaboration GROUP FOUR Various members of the group discussed the following technical challenges for manufacturing in the year 2020: · implementing computer-based information systems for modeling, synthesis, optimization, and on-line control of manufacturing, from the process level to the enterprise level · representing human components, not only for accurate modeling, but also for feedback on an individual's impact on the overall system developing mechanisms of self-organization for manufacturing organizations in a variety of settings (e.g., self-assembling teams of workers with limited skills that exhibit a high degree of collective capability for efficient manufacturing and solving the social problem of the have-nots)
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From page 120... ...
· processing technologies for personal, neighborhood, and point-of-sale manufacturing (The group considered these concepts to represent the shifting economies of scale.) GROUP SIX The discussion participants identified a number of technical challenges and related research and development areas to realize the goals of visionary manufacturing for 2020: engineering the "socio-technical interface"; finding and keeping high-performance workers; constructing high performance work group and organizational/enterprise structures; providing materials/process/product modeling at all enterprise levels; optimizing the use of information/knowledge; reducing the "footprint" of manufacturing processes; and determining the roles of local government and business in education.
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From page 121... ...
Creating high-performance organizations/enterprises. At the enterprise level, visionary manufacturing enterprises will constantly strive to optimize the balance of manufacturing technologies with human/group factors to meet performance goals.
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From page 122... ...
Manufacturing technologies in the future should be small, inexpensive, adaptive, highly flexible, and redeployable. The goal is to improve efficiency and ease of use and to reduce power consumption.
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