Funding a Revolution Government Support for Computing Research (1999) / Chapter Skim
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1 Introduction
1 Introduction
Pages 15-39
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Part I The Federal Role in Computing Research
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Together, these entities have created an innovation system that has vastly improved the capabilities of computer-related technologies, from semiconductors to computers, and from software to data communications networks. Real-time, online operating systems, graphical user interfaces, the mouse, the Internet, high-performance computers, and microprocessors are all offspring of the productive interaction among government, universities, and industry in the innovation process.
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As such, the report is not a comprehensive history of computing, but rather an attempt to provide insight into the role of federal research funding in the innovation process for computing. It is hoped that the lessons learned from this report will provide guidance to policymakers attempting to plot the course of federal research investments over the next several decades.
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that identified the role of federal research funding in stimulating innovation in several areas of computing and communications (Figure 1.1~. The case studies are not intended to be definitive surveys of the various subjects; nor are they necessarily fully representative of the interactions of federal research funding with other elements of the nation's innovation system.
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20 Graphics Timesharing '''~'WC'''t''Y'''f'''''''''''''''''^~'f'^~^r'''',,'''~JrJr~ Networking . Workstations \ `~' ~ \ ~ Windows RISC VLSI design Raid Parallel computing 1965 1970 1975 1980 Gov't research - -- I ndustry research ^^ Transfer of Ideas or people ~ FUNDING A REVOLUTION A few examples CTSS, Multics, BSD Unix SDS 9940, 360/67, VMS Sketchpad, Utah GM/IBM, LucasFilm E&S, SGI ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1 : ·~'f''~f~f~'f'~ - ` r'^~r''~'~r^^J \ ''~='f~^, \ annen_ - Mv^~`,~_ 1985 1990 1994 ARPANET, Internet Ethernet, Pup, Datakit DECnet, LANs, TCP/IP Lisp machine, Stanford Xerox Alto Apollo, SUN Englebart, Rochester Alto, SmallTalk Star, Mac, Microsoft Berkeley, Stanford IBM 801 Sun, SGI, IBM, HP Mead/Conway, MOSIS many Berkeley Striping, Datamesh many ILLIAC 4, C.mmp, HPC IBM RP3, Intel CM-1, Teradata, T3D Industry Development ~ ~- $ 1 B business FIGURE 1.1 Illustrations of the role of government-sponsored computing research and development in the creation of innovative ideas and industries.
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The impressive ability of statisticians to predict the level of automobile accidents on national holidays, the accurate predictions of trends in economics and demography, and the long-term forecasts of particular cyclical effects of climate changes on agricultural production and energy consumption provide examples of the durability of trends and the persistence of circumstances. French historian Fernand Braudel in his study, The Mediterranean and the Mediterranean World in the Age of Philip II, writes persuasively of the influence of the physical environment upon society and the resulting slow but perceptible rhythms of social behavior: "a history in which all change is slow, a history of constant repetition, everrecurring cycles" (Braudel, 1972, pp.
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It is hoped that they will both help historians better understand development of a dynamic industry and provide technologists with a deeper appreciation of the heritage of their trade, as well as assist policymakers in making more informed judgments about federal support for computing. THE COMPUTING REVOLUTION The United States is clearly a leader in the computing revolution.
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Recent surveys indicate that some 58 million adults in the United States and Canada are now online (Nielsen Media Research, 1997~. Computers have become ubiquitous, with microprocessors running desktop and laptop computers, quietly controlling the operation of aircraft and automobile engines, and adding functionality to common household devices, such as telephones, thermostats, and coffeemakers.
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Computer and data processing firms generated close to $150 million in revenues in 1996, with revenues from domestic telecommunications services climbing from $10 billion to $320 billion between 1960 and 1996.4 Employment in U.S. communications services and computer and data-processing-services companies topped 2.4 million in 1996 (U.S.
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that, over time, have a significant, cumulative effect. Between 1971 and 1995, the speed of a standard, general-purpose microprocessor increased more than 7,000-fold, from 60,000 to 440 million instructions per second, and the storage capacity of a dynamic random access memory chip swelled from 4,000 to 256 million bits (Table 1.3~.
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Basic theoretical work defining a universal computer was the contribution of Alan Turing in Cambridge just before the start of World War II. The English defense industry with Alan Turing's participation conceived and constructed vacuum tube computers able to break the German military code.
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firms moved quickly to build an industrial base for computing. IBM and Remington Rand recognized quite early that electronic computers were a threat to their conventional electromechanical punched-card business and launched early endeavors into computing (Box 1.3~.
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In dollar terms, research is just a small part of the innovation process, representing less than one-fifth of the cost of developing and introducing new products in the United States, with preparation of product specifications, prototype development, tooling and equipment, manufacturing start-up, and marketing start-up comprising the remainder (Mansfield, 1988, p. 1770~.9 Indeed, computer manufacturers allocated an average of just 20 percent of their research and development budgets to research between 1976 and 1995, with the balance supporting product development.~° Even in the largest computer manufacturers, such as IBM, research costs are only
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This knowledge is used at many points in the innovation process generating ideas for new products, processes, or services; solving particular problems in product development or manufacturing; or improving existing products, for example. Both industry and government fund research activities, with the research itself generally conducted by workers in industry or university laboratories.
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Cold War policies of the United States aimed at military and political containment of the Soviet Union and other communist adversaries provided additional impetus for computing research. Defense agencies, such as the Office of Naval Research, Army Research Office, Air Force Office of Scientific Research, and Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, invested in computing research with long-term effects on military capabilities (and, indirectly, civilian capabilities)
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In software, the federal government helped drive the marketplace toward the American National Standards Institute's version of COBOL by establishing it as a federal data processing standard. It also supported efforts to set a standard for message-passing interfaces in parallel computing and supported the High Performance FORTRAN forum to extend the FORTRAN programming language to parallel computers (OTA, 1995~.
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Even as federal budget deficits have given way to promises of surpluses in the late l990s, and proposals have been made for increasing federal research spending, Congress initiated a study to determine the proper role of government in supporting science and engineering.~7 Such studies attempt to determine how federal monies can be most productively spent and, more generally, what role the federal government should play in supporting research and innovative activities. Computing research poses an especially difficult challenge in this regard.
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Federal policymakers must determine what role government plays in supporting such work and how federal efforts supplement, rather than duplicate or displace, those of industry. Similarly, policymakers must understand how federal needs differ from those of the commercial marketplace and how federal needs can drive industrial innovation.
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Chapter 4 reviews the changing organizational context of computing research in the United States, with an emphasis on federal funding agencies. It describes the changing political, technical, and organizational context in which innovation has occurred and contains mini-case studies of particularly important innovations such as time-shared computing and very large scale integrated circuits identifying the federal role in each.
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4. Revenues cited for the telecommunications services industry include both voice and data communications over a range of media wireline and wireless.
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The bill was referred to the Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources. In June 1998, Senator Frist submitted similar legislation entitled the Federal Research Investment Act along with 26 co-sponsors.
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INTRODUCTION 39 18. Each agency was required to submit by September 1997 strategic plans that outlined the agency's mission statement, goals and objectives, and strategies it would use to achieve them.
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