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6 Promotion and Retention
Pages 114-162

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From page 114...
... In a memorandum for the secretary of education, President Clinton (1998:~-2) wrote that he hac3 "repeatedly challenged States anc3 school districts to end social promotions to require students to meet rigorous ~4
From page 115...
... New York City Schools Chancellor Rudy Crew has proposed that 4th and 7th graders be held back if they fail a new state reading test at their grade level, beginning in spring 2000. Crew's proposal, however, would combine testing of students with "a comprehensive evaluation of their course work and a review of their attendance records," and the two- year delay in implementation of the tests would permit schools "to identify those students deemed most at risk and give them intensive remedial instruction" (Steinberg, 1998a)
From page 116...
... After summer school, 15 percent, 13 percent, anc3 8 percent of students were retained at the three gracie levels (Chicago Public Schools, 1998a) .3 The current enthusiasm for the use of achievement tests to end social promotion raises three concerns.
From page 117...
... But they provide a cautionary lesson: making grade retention or the threat of retention an effective educational policy requires consistent and sus' rained effort. Third, public discussion of social promotion has made little reference to current retention practices in which a very large share of American schoolchildren are already retained in grade.
From page 118...
... More' over, there are no sound national estimates of the prevalence of kincier' garten retention, and none of the state data in Appendix Table 6~1 indicate exceptionally high kindergarten retention rates. The Census Bureau's statistics show that, from the early 1970s to the 5Another relevant factor is change in state or local requirements about the exact age a child must reach before entering kindergarten or first grade.
From page 119...
... Matrix sampling procedures should be used to ensure technical accuracy anc3 at the same time protect against the misuse of data to make decisions about individual chilclren" (Sheparcl National statistics do not indicate exactly how much extended kindergarten may have contributed to the rise in age at entry into graded school because they do not provide direct information about transitions between grade levels (or retention in grade) from year to year.
From page 120...
... The two groups performed comparably at the end of first gracie, but both performed worse than a second comparison group that hac3 been promoted and given incliviclualizec3 reacling instruction. Retention in the Primary and Seconclary Gracles "Age- gracie retardation" is a term that refers to enrollment below the modal grade level for a chilcl's age and no broader meaning is either intenclec3 or implied.
From page 121...
... That is, gracle retention increased while ciropping out clecreasec3. Among cohorts entering school after 1970, the proportion enrolled below the modal gracle level was never less than 10 percent at ages 6 to 8, anc3 it exceeciec3 20 percent for cohorts of the late 1980s.
From page 122...
... In summary, gracie retention is pervasive in American schools. Enc3ing social promotion probably means retaining even larger numbers of children.
From page 123...
... On one hand, the most critical assumption in the case of a promotion test certifying mastery is that it is a valid measure of the important content, skills, anc3 other attributes covered by the curriculum of that gracle. If, on the other hand, the test is used as a placement cievice, the most critical assumption is that the assigned gracie (or intervention, such as summer school)
From page 124...
... Depending on whether the construct to be measured is "readiness for the next gracie level" or "mastery of the material taught at the current gracie level," the content anc3 thought processes to be assessed may be quite different. The first construct might be adequately represented by a reacling test if readiness for the next grade level is determined solely by a stuclent's ability to read the material presented at that level.
From page 125...
... on tests used for tracking, as well as some of the difficulties involved. With promotion tests, the validity of the outscore similarly ciepencis on the reasonableness of the stanciarc3-setting process anc3 its consequences especially if they differ by gender, race, or language-mi 9This same kind of evidence can illuminate possible differences in meaning or interpretation of test scores across subgroups of examiners, and it can help determine the extent to which capabilities irrelevant or ancillary to the construct may be differentially affecting their performance (American Educational Research Association et al., 1985, 1998)
From page 126...
... More than a purely technical decision, it also involves social concerns, politics, and maintaining credibility with the public (Ellwein and Glass, 1989~. Public relations played a role in the setting of outscores on the Iowa tests that are part of Chicago's bid to end social promotion.
From page 127...
... A finding that the relation of test scores to a relevant criterion variable differs from one group to another may imply that the meaning of the scores is not the same for members of the different groups, perhaps due to construct underrepresentation or construct-irrelevant variables (American Educational Research Association et al., 1985, 1998~.
From page 128...
... The results of the two groups could then be compared to see which group benefited the most if "ben' efit" is clefinec3 as scoring higher on the test. In abolition, because reacling is necessary for learning other subjects, another potential benefit to ex' amine is differential subject matter learning.l3 Effects of Retention Determining whether the use of a promotion test produces better overall educational outcomes requires weighing the intenclec3 benefits against unintenciec3 negative consequences for incliviclual students and groups of students (American Educational Research Association et al., 1985; Cronbach, 1971; Joint Committee on Testing Practices, 1988; Messick, 1989~.
From page 129...
... Of the 63 studies reviewed by Holmes, 54 yielciec3 overall negative effects of retention, anc3 only 9 yielciec3 overall positive effects. Some studies hac3 better statistical controls than others, anc3 those with subjects matched on A, achievement test scores, sex, anc3/or socioeconomic status showed larger negative effects of retention than studies with weaker designs.
From page 130...
... , and the use of tests for promotion and retention. A recent national longitudinal study, using the National Education Longitudinal Study database, shows that certain students are far likelier than others to be subject to promotion tests in the 8th grade (Reardon, 1996:4-5~: ESitudents in urban schools, in schools with high concentrations of low-income and minority students, and schools in southern and western states, are considerably more likely to have thigh-stakes]
From page 131...
... Negative findings about the effects of gracie retention on dropout rates are reported by Grissom anc3 Sheparc3 (1989) , based on data for several localities including the 1979 to 1981 freshman classes from the Chicago Public Schools.
From page 132...
... For example, there is some evidence to indicate that improved scores on one test may not actually carry over when a new test of the same knowledge and skills is introduced (Koretz et al., 1991~. The current reform and test-based accountability systems of the Chicago Public Schools provide an example of high-stakes test use for individual students that raises serious questions about "teaching to the test." Although Chicago is developing its own standards-based, course-specific assessment system, it is committed to using the Iowa Test of Basic Skills as the yardstick for student and school accountability.
From page 133...
... . Cincinnati uses grouping and intervention as well as intensive instruction and smaller classes to help children who appear to be having difficulty staying at grade level (American Federation of Teachers, 1997a)
From page 134...
... Thus there is a need for evidence that the content of the test is representative of what students have been taught. Chapter 7 discusses several ways of demonstrating that the test measures what stucients have been taught in the context of graduation tests, although much of this discussion is also relevant to promotion tests.
From page 135...
... providing students with multiple opportunities to demonstrate their knowledge through repeated testing with alternate forms or other appropriate means; and (3) taking into account other relevant information about incliviclual students (American Educational Research Association et al., 1985~.
From page 136...
... No national or regional agency monitors social promotion anc3 gracie retention. Occasional data on retention are available for some states anc3 localities, but coverage is sparse, anc3 little is known about the comparability of these data (Sheparc3 anc3 Smith, 1989~.
From page 137...
... If 15 percent of those children were enrolled below the 2nc3 gracle in Octo' her 1995, when they were 7 years old, we would infer that at least 5 percent were held back in the 1st gracie between 1994 anc3 1995. EXTENDED KINDERGARTEN ATTENDANCE Historically, there has been great variation in age at school entry in the United States, which hac3 more to c30 with the labor clemancis of a farm economy anc3 the availability of schooling to clisacivantagec3 groups than with readiness for school.
From page 138...
... 138 HIGH STAKES: TESTING FOR TRACING, PROMOTION, AND GRADUATION TABLE 6~! Percentages of Students Retained in Gracle in Selected States by Gracie-Level and Year Grade Level PKK 1 2 3 4 Alabama 1994-95 NA4.6 7.7 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.1 1995-96 NA4.4 7.9 2.9 2.3 2.3 2.4 1996-97 NA5.1 8.5 3.3 2.5 2.1 2.0 Arizona 1979-80 NA5.2 7.7 4.0 2.4 1.9 1.4 1985-86 NA 8.0 20.0 8.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 1994-95 18.0 1.4 2.4 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 1995-96 18.9 1.6 2.4 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.4 1996-97 14.8 1.7 2.2 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.5 California 1988-89 5.7 4.4 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.5 Delaware 1979-80 NA NA 11.4 5.1 2.9 2.4 3.1 1985-86 NA 5.4 17.2 4.9 2.8 2.3 3.0 1994-95 NA 2.1 5.8 2.1 1.1 0.7 0.6 1995-96 NA 1.6 5.3 2.0 1.9 0.8 0.9 1996-97 NA 2.0 5.0 2.4 1.4 0.9 1.0 District of Columbia 1979-80 NA NA 15.3 10.0 7.2 7.2 6.3 1985-86 NA NA 12.7 8.4 7.4 5.4 4.6 1991-92 NA NA 12.9 10.8 8.9 6.9 6.5 1992-93 10.4 8.2 7.4 8.0 6.2 1993-94 11.1 7.9 6.3 6.1 5.3 1994-95 12.7 8.5 6.2 5.9 5.8 1995-96 11.4 8.7 7.4 7.0 5.5 1996-97 14.7 11.3 10.8 8.0 6.1 Florida 1979-80 NA 6.1 13.7 7.4 7.0 5.9 4.6 1985-86 NA 10.5 11.2 4.7 4.5 3.8 2.6 1994-95 3.1 3.0 3.3 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.6 1995-96 1.8 3.1 3.6 1.9 1.2 0.9 0.7 1996-97 3.6 3.6 4.1 2.2 1.5 1.0 0.7
From page 139...
... PROMOTION AND RETENTION 139 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total 3.2 7.3 5.8 13.1 7.2 6.1 3.8 5.4 2.9 6.7 5.4 12.1 7.2 6.2 3.5 5.2 2.9 6.1 4.4 12.6 6.7 5.2 3.1 5.1 1.3 3.1 2.3 4.4 2.4 2.5 6.9 3.5 4.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 3.0 2.0 14.0 7.2 1.0 2.5 2.2 5.3 3.5 2.3 8.7 2.3 0.9 2.3 2.2 5.4 3.5 2.6 9.7 2.4 1.1 2.7 2.3 7.0 5.0 3.1 10.2 2.8 0.5 1.0 0.7 2.4 7.9 8.1 13.1 12.6 7.7 6.6 7.0 3.2 9.6 7.7 15.6 16.8 8.7 7.5 8.1 1.4 3.4 1.7 NA NA NA NA NA 1.3 2.8 1.6 NA NA NA NA NA 1.9 3.4 2.8 NA NA NA NA NA 3.1 NANA 20.5 NA NA 16.6 NA 2.8 10.66.6 NA NA NA NA 7.3 3.0 17.317.6 15.2 22.1 18.3 11.8 3.3 18.516.4 16.5 26.0 23.8 12.7 3.5 15.615.2 19.5 23.7 18.6 14.1 2.4 12.213.6 16.1 22.1 15.1 13.9 2.3 11.912.1 16.2 24.3 15.9 13.3 4.1 15.416.5 18.7 21.8 21.7 13.6 5.5 10.48.3 10.2 11.5 7.5 4.4 8.0 3.5 7.95.8 12.1 11.9 8.9 3.5 7.2 3.3 4.73.6 11.1 9.3 7.8 5.3 4.1 3.7 4.73.6 12.8 10.8 7.8 5.2 4.4 4.4 4.94.0 14.3 12.1 8.6 5.7 5.0
From page 140...
... 140 HIGH STAKES: TESTING FOR TRACING, PROMOTION, AND GRADUATION TABLE 6~1 Continued PK K1 2 3 4 G eorgla 1979-80 NA NA11.0 4.7 3.82.82.5 1985-86 NA 8.012.4 6.7 7.85.23.9 1994-95 NA 3.83.5 1.5 1.10.70.6 1995-96 NA 3.73.7 1.9 1.21.00.7 1996-97 NA 3.63.8 2.1 1.51.00.8 1997-98 NA 3.74.0 2.4 1.71.31.1 Hawaii 1979-80 NA NA1.1 0.7 0.50.40.4 1985-86 NA 2.01.6 1.0 0.70.50.4 Indiana 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 Kentucky 1979-80 NA 2.312.6 5.7 3.42.21.8 1985-86 NA 4.05.3 4.9 3.02.31.9 1994-95 NA NA NA NA NA 1.1 0.7 1995-96 NA NA NA NA NA 1.1 0.8 L
From page 141...
... PROMOTION AND RETENTION 141 6 7 8 9 10 1 1 12 Total 2.65.37.413.3 10.87.94.0 6.5 5.36.77.518.1 12.28.74.5 8.5 1.51.81.91 1.6 7.55.03.0 1.72.12.212.6 7.75.23.2 1.92.42.213.1 8.25.63.4 2.12.52.112.4 8.75.43.5 0.40.22.313.1 10.18.55.2 3.8 0.52.12.88.9 6.95.50.8 2.6 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.94.23.65.8 4.22.83.2 4.4 2.75.43.89.6 6.34.63.4 5.3 1.92.71.610.7 6.94.02.3 3.6 1.82.71.910.7 6.84.12.2 3.6 1.88.57.68.6 1 1.36.24.4 5.8 NANANANA NANANA 5.5 2.13.22.413.1 7.14.84.7 3.1 2.33.32.312.2 6.64.75.3 3.2 2.53.72.610.3 6.14.35.5 3.2 0.61.51.56.3 4.53.32.2 0.61.41.56.3 4.53.61.9 7.8 5.63.82.0 4.8 3.92.71.7
From page 142...
... 142 HIGH STAKES: TESTING FOR TRACING, PROMOTION, AND GRADUATION TABLE 6~1 Continued PK K1 2 3 4 M
From page 143...
... PROMOTION AND RETENTION 143 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total 5.1 5.6 8.3 7.5 7.7 0.9 7.0 NA NA NA 3.4 8.1 2.2 2.3 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.7 2.2 2.6 1.9 1.6 1.8 13.5 11.2 15.4 14.2 15.6 2.5 3.3 NA NA NA 6.8 7.9 3.6 3.5 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 3.2 3.4 2.9 2.1 2.9 11.1 9.3 13.2 11.5 12.9 2.8 3.2 NA NA NA 7.1 11.0 3.0 2.8 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.1 1.8 2.3 2.8 2.3 1.8 3.1 12.4 12.9 21.0 20.9 19.7 7.7 10.5 NA NA NA 14.1 13.9 9.0 9.6 10.4 10.8 11.3 12.8 13.4 15.0 15.7 15.8 9.1 8.1 11.4 11.7 12.6 13.5 12.9 12.8 4.9 5.5 16.2 18.2 19.5 14.8 13.2 7.6 7.8 7.4 7.9 7.8 8.3 10.0 10.2 10.2 10.3 5.2 4.8 5.9 8.1 9.0 9.5 7.9 7.7 3.6 4.2 NA NA NA 8.6 9.3 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.6 4.6 4.9 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.8 2.9 2.7 3.2 6.0 5.7 6.5 5.5 5.2 3.6 4.9 NA NA NA 4.2 3.9 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.2 2.1 4.4 3.9 4.2 8.9 8.9 9.6 9.5 9.8 3.6 4.2 NA NA NA 6.9 7.7 4.5 4.2 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.7 NA NA NA
From page 144...
... 144 HIGH STAKES: TESTING FOR TRACING, PROMOTION, AND GRADUATION TABLE 6~1 Continued Grade Level PK K 1 2 3 4 South Carolina 1977-78NANA 8.3 4.4 3.5 2.7 2.6 1994-95 7.0 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.7 1995-96 6.8 2.6 2.0 1.4 1.6 1996-97 7.0 2.9 2.1 1.7 1.8 Tennessee 1979-80NA2.4 10.7 5.6 3.9 3.1 3.3 1985-86NA3.9 10.9 5.1 3.9 3.3 3.2 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97NA4.3 5.5 2.5 1.8 1.2 1.4 Texas 1992-931.67.7 2.5 1.5 1.2 1.1 2.3 1993-941.46.0 2.1 1.2 0.9 0.8 2.0 1994-951.55.8 2.2 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.7 1995-961.75.9 2.6 1.5 1.0 0.8 1.7 Vermont 1994-951.91.7 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 1995-961.51.6 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.3 1996-972.12.4 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 Virginia 1979-80NA6.2 11.0 6.3 5.3 4.4 4.2 1985-86NA8.3 10.2 4.8 4.2 3.7 2.9 1993-94NA3.0 3.9 2.0 1.3 1.1 0.7 1994-95NA3.5 4.2 2.1 1.5 1.2 0.7 1995-96NA3.9 4.3 2.4 1.9 1.6 1.1 West Virginia 1979-80NA1.7 10.8 3.4 2.2 1.9 1.8 1985-86NA4.4 7.5 3.3 2.7 2.3 2.2 1994-95NA4.7 4.9 2.0 1.5 0.9 0.9 1995-96NA4.7 5.4 2.2 1.4 0.8 0.7 1996-97NA5.8 6.7 3.7 2.5 2.0 2.1
From page 145...
... PROMOTION AND RETENTION 145 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total 3.5 3.8 2.6 NA NA NA NA 2.6 2.4 3.3 2.2 2.4 3.8 2.7 2.8 3.9 2.9 2.8 7.3 3.2 2.7 5.6 8.5 8.1 6.1 9.6 7.2 5.7 6.3 4.1 6.1 8.6 7.0 5.9 13.4 9.5 7.0 5.8 5.4 6.2 4.2 3.9 3.9 3.5 3.4 5.2 3.2 2.3 16.7 8.56.14.14.4 3.0 2.2 16.5 8.25.73.84.0 2.7 1.9 16.8 7.95.43.94.0 2.9 2.1 17.8 7.95.54.24.3 1.5 1.6 3.9 2.62.24.81.7 1.5 1.3 4.9 3.02.23.41.7 1.5 1.3 4.8 2.62.24.41.8 4.2 7.7 12.6 11.58.36.37.4 7.4 3.4 8.1 9.7 13.98.86.17.0 7.2 3.1 5.4 6.2 12.28.36.36.6 4.6 3.4 5.2 6.3 13.48.66.66.5 4.9 3.6 5.3 6.0 13.28.46.26.4 4.9 1.4 3.5 2.5 NANANANA 3.4 1.8 4.6 2.5 NANANANA 3.5 1.3 3.7 3.0 NANANANA 2.6 1.3 3.5 2.7 NANANANA 2.6 3.5 4.6 2.9 NANANANA 3.8
From page 146...
... Moreover, there are no sound national estimates of the prevalence of kindergarten retention, and none of the state data in Table 6-1 indicate exceptionally high kindergarten retention rates. The Census Bureau's statistics on gracie enrollment by age show that, from the early 1970s to the late 1980s, entry into 1st grade graclually came later in the development of many children, but for the past clecacle there has been little change in age at school entry.
From page 147...
... Among 6-year~oicl girls, only 4 percent had not yet entered the 1st grade in 1971, but 16 percent were not yet in the 1st gracie in 1987, and 17 23The percentages include those enrolled below 1st grade level and a small share of 6year-olds who were not enrolled in school. The data are virtually unchanged if nonenrolled children are eliminated from the analysis; neither the trends nor the differences by race-ethnicity and sex are affected.
From page 148...
... Children may enter first grade without first attending kinclergarten, ancl, in many of the early years, the share of 5-year-olcis who were not enrolled or were in nursery school exceeclec3 the share of 6-year-olcis who were enrolled below the ist grade in the following year. National statistics C3O not tell us exactly how much extenciec3 kinciergarten has contributed to the rise in age at entry into graciec3 school because they C3O not provide direct information about transitions between gracle levels (or retention in grades from year to year.
From page 149...
... ........ O- 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1972 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 Year FIGURE 6-2 Percentage of 5-year-old children enrolled below kindergarten or not enrolled.
From page 150...
... . O-1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1962 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 Year Cohort Reached Ages 6 to 8 FIGURE 6-3 Percentage of children enrolled below modal grade for age by age group and year in which cohort was ages 6 to 8.
From page 151...
... At ages 6 to 8, 21 percent were enrolled below the modal gracle for their age. By 1990, when this cohort reached ages 9 to 11, age~gracle retardation grew to 28 percent, and it was 31 percent in 1993, when the cohort reached ages 12 to 14.
From page 152...
... The trenc3 lines suggest that age-gracie retardation has cieclinec3 slightly for cohorts entering school after the mic3-1980s, but rates have not moved back to the levels of the early 1970s. Overall, a large share of each birth cohort now experiences grade retention cluring elementary school.
From page 153...
... Among children who reached ages 6 to 8 between the mic3~1970s anc3 the mica 1980s, age-gracle retardation grew by about 10 percentage points by ages 9 to 11, anc3 it grew by close to 5 percentage points more by ages 12 to 14. Relative to ages 6 to 8, age~gracle retardation at ages 9 to 11 anc3 ages 12 to 14 increased for cohorts who were 6 to 8 years old in the early 1970s; it was stable from the mic3~1970s to the mic3~1980s, anc3 it has cieclinec3 since then.
From page 154...
... .. a- 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1962 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 Year Cohort Reached Ages 6 to 8 FIGURE 6-6 Percentage enrolled below modal grade at ages 6 to 8 and at ages 15 to 17 by sex and year cohort reached ages 6 to 8.
From page 155...
... ~ _ it. ~ FIGURE 6-7 Percentage enrolled below modal grade at ages 6 to 8 by race/ethnicity and year.
From page 156...
... - - .. l 1965 1970 1975 1980 Year Cohort Reached Anes 6 to 8 1985 1 990 FIGURE 6-9 Percentage enrolled below modal grade at ages 12 to 14 by year cohort reached ages 6 to 8 by race/ethnicity.
From page 157...
... .. 1962 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 Year Cohort Reached Ages 6 to 8 FIGURE 6-10 Percentage enrolled below modal grade or dropping out by ages 15 to 17 by year cohort reached ages 6 to 8 by race/ethnicity.
From page 158...
... Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press. American Educational Research Association, American Psychological Association, and National Council on Measurement in Education 1985 Standards for Educational arid Psychological Testing.
From page 159...
... Opperman 1988 Longitudinal Study of the 1982-83 Promotional Gates Students. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Educational Research Association.
From page 160...
... Shepard 1991 The Effects of High-Stakes Testing on Achievement: Preliminary Findings About Generalization Across Tests. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Educational Research Association and the National Council on Measurement in Education.
From page 161...
... Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Educational Research Association. New York, NY, April.
From page 162...
... U.S. Bureau of the Census 1971- Current Population Reports P-20 Series, "School Enrollment: Social and Eco 1995 nomic Characteristics of Students." U.S.


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