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1. INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW
Pages 1-17

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From page 1...
... For example, for 31 of the nation's most populous metropolitan areas, the private vehicle occupancy for trips to work averaged 1.16 persons per vehicle in 1970; by 1990, this statistic had fallen to i.09, a drop of 6.6%.~ More markedly, for the country as a whole the proportion of work trips made by driving alone in a private vehicle increased from 64.4% of all commuters in 1980 to 73.2% by 1990. This growth - implying over 22 million extra vehicles on the nation's roads, many of them during peak periods - came primarily at the expense of ridesharing in private vehicles, and to a lesser degree from transit riders.
From page 2...
... But this national figure masks some other very important trends. While the total growth in population is at a historic low, it is at the same time becoming increasingly aggregated around large urban centers.
From page 3...
... More disparate residential and workplace locations make carpooling more difficult, and may be a key driver in the sharp decline in ridesharing observed during the 19SOs, and the consequent rise in SOV share. The Role of Demographics Surely the concentration of population on one end of the work trip and jobs on the other make the opportunities for carpooling more numerous, other things being equal.
From page 4...
... Socioeconomic Factors According to the Census Bureau, disposable personal income per capita rose almost 20% in real terms between 19SO and 1990,9 while real average household incomes increased 12%.~° At the same time, Figure 3 shows that the cost of new cars has actually been declining slightly when adjusted for quality. Even more striking though, is the drop in real gasoline prices that has occurred since 1980, and the fact that they are now at an all time low, as shown in Figure 4.
From page 5...
... Figure 3. Measures of New Car Prices 1968 -1993 (thousands of dollars)
From page 6...
... It is reasonable to assume that people who can afford to use a private vehicle will want to do so. Private vehicles have certain service qualities that no form of public transit can match and that people value very highly, such as privacy, route flexibility, and infinite departure schedule variability.
From page 7...
... Table 3. Transit share of work trips in major metropolitan areas, 1990 Population density (persons/sq.
From page 8...
... The statistics in Table 4 show that in 1990 about three-quarters of all transit trips made to work by metropolitan area residents were made to central city workplaces, and that three out of every five transit work trips were ascribable to central city residents commuting to central city jobs. It can also be seen from the exhibit that the two geographical markets of greatest importance to transit-intra-central city commutes and suburb-to-central-city commutes are the ones showing the least proportional growth over the 198Os, 6.2% and 9.6% respectively.
From page 9...
... central citytocentral city24.322.9+6.2% suburbsto central city15.313.9+9.6% suburbs to outside MSA6.83.9+72.3% suburbs to suburbs35.427.7+27.5% centralcityto suburbs6.04.6+29.8% centralcityto outside MSA1.91.3+48.1% all commute trips by MSA residents89.674.4+20.5% Transit share of commute trips (DO) central city to central city13.216.1-18.0% suburbs to central city5.38.0-33.2% suburbs to outside MSA6.47.6-15.4% suburbs to suburbs1.21.6-28.0% central city to suburbs5.15.6-8.5% central city to outside MSA8.37.3+13.7% al/ commute trips by MSA residents6.07.9-24.9% Distribution of transit commute trips by geography (TO)
From page 10...
... PROJECT OBJECTIVES The primary goal of this work is to gain a stronger quantitative understanding of the factors that have been affecting the dynamics of commuter mode choices and vehicle occupancy levels in recent years, and to use this improved understanding to comment on the potential efficacy of policies designed to increase transit ridership and/or to increase average vehicle occupancy levels. The potential impacts of continuation of the trends in single occupant vehicle (SOY)
From page 11...
... drives dispersion of homes and jobs, or how far the causality flows in the opposite direction. The marketplace evidence appears to indicate that, at least under the public regulatory and financial ground rules that have prevailed throughout the twentieth century, the general public has aspired very strongly to both lower density living and increased automobility.
From page 12...
... LITERATURE REVIEW To explore credible, quantitative causal relationships concerning the variations and trends in mode shares and in vehicle occupancy levels, particularly in those market situations in which transit has traditionally been considered most competitive with private transportation, using multivariate analysis techniques; To use the identified quantitative relationships to assess the extent to which these observed trends can be explained by factors within the control of transportation policymakers; and To comment on the implications of our findings for potential public policies designed to favor higher occupancy modes (such as road pricing proposals)
From page 13...
... A 1976 study by Kain and Fauth of Harvard University developed a large number of models of automobile ownership and use based on a household sample from the 125 largest metropolitan areas in 1970.~4 These models used as explanatory variables measures such as highway capacity, transit service levels, housing density, and socioeconomic factors such as household income. In a report of the same year, Ben-Akiva and Lerman developed disaggregate models of auto ownership and mode choice from Washington DC data for 1968.~s This study tested the hypothesis that auto ownership and mode choice decisions are interdependent, and are therefore made jointly.
From page 14...
... Another recent synthesis of national commuting trends using data from both the Census and NETS and also offering some insights into the future of commuting alternatives was published in 1994 by National Urban Transit Institute at the University of South Florida.~9 This study provides recommendations for the future success of public transportation, ridesharing, and working at home. At a slightly more disaggregate [level, there have been two reports commissioned by the Federal Highway Administration that examine these trends for the nation's largest metropolitan areas.
From page 15...
... In addition, it explores appropriate road pricing policies that would redress those inefficiencies, and (as a second best solution in the absence of marginal cost pricing of road space) identifies feasible transit investment and operational policies that might also lead to net societal benefits in the corridors.
From page 16...
... Washington, DC, US Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, (1995~. 24 Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey: 1990 NPTS Special Reports on Trip and Vehicle Attributes.
From page 17...
... 26 The Drachman Institute for Land and Regional Development Studies, "Transit Markets of the Future The Challenge of Change." To be published as TCRP Report H-4B (1997) , Washington, DC, Transportation Research Board.


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