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Making Climate Forecasts Matter (1999) / Chapter Skim
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6 Scientific Priorities
Pages 124-141

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From page 124...
... These coping techniques shape the human consequences of climatic variations and the potential usefulness of climate forecast information. The introduction of skillful predictive information into a social system adapted to unpredictable climate variability introduces new problems and opportunities.
From page 125...
... FINDINGS Climate Forecasting and Its Uses · Uncertainty is embedded in climate forecasts because of the chaotic processes inherent in the atmospheric system. · The skill of climate predictions varies by geographic region, by climate parameter, and by time scale.
From page 126...
... Therefore, the consequences of climate variability, climate sensitivity, vulnerability, and the usefulness of forecasts cannot be adequately assessed in the absence of a basic understanding of the coping mechanisms being used. · Coping strategies are not equally available to all affected actors, and the availability of robust coping strategies is likely to be a function of wealth.
From page 127...
... · Responses to past climate forecasts are an essential source of information for understanding responses to future ones. The 1997-1998 E1 Nino provides a valuable opportunity for building knowledge for improving the value of future climate forecasts.
From page 128...
... . Scientific capability to judge the value of climate forecasts is in its infancy.
From page 129...
... · Although governments and other organizations around the world collect data that are relevant to measuring the effects of climate variability and the value of climate forecasts, meta-data are nonexistent to describe the availability, quality, resolution, and other essential traits of these data for these purposes. General · The consequences of past climate fluctuations are an essential source of information for understanding the consequences of future ones.
From page 130...
... Climate forecasts can be improved in multiple ways (e.g., in different regions, for different parameters, over different lead times) , but these different kinds of improvements are probably not equal in terms of the social benefits they could bring.
From page 131...
... It would include efforts to estimate the benefit that might be obtained from optimal responses to improved forecasts with particular attributes. It would also consider constraints on actors' ability to take advantage of information in climate forecasts (e.g., the time sensitivity of decisions to renew insurance contracts)
From page 132...
... However, careful attention must be paid to the design of questions because of the limited experience to date constructing reliable items on climate and climate forecasting. The user-focused approach can also be implemented by using methods of structured discussion (e.g., workshops, conferences, and ongoing advisory bodies)
From page 133...
... How do individuals conceptualize climate variability and react to climate forecasts? What roles do their expectations of climate variability play in their acceptance and use of forecasts?
From page 134...
... To the extent that perceptions, expectations, and beliefs are identified that act as barriers to the effective use of climate forecasts, research should address how to alter those by appropriately organized information or education. To the extent that surprising (i.e., unexpected)
From page 135...
... As Chapter 4 shows, research on responses to past climate forecasts and to analogous kinds of information has generated several promising hypotheses about how to deliver climate forecast information most effectively. Further research on responses to recent climate forecasts is likely to generate additional ones.
From page 136...
... Legal research questions include assessing case law regarding responsibility for climate, weather, and analogous forecasts; the treatment of scientific uncertainty in the legal system; the relationship between impacts and liability settlements; and the role of legal institutions (e.g., water and property rights) in coping with climatic variability and climate forecasts.
From page 137...
... In the general case, the effects of climatic variations may depend on population growth in and migration to areas that experience large climate variations; economic and infrastructural development in such areas; the level of dependence of human populations on food and other essential goods and services delivered from outside their immediate vicinity; technologies and practices affecting land use and water demand; the distribution of economic resources; the levels of income and education among affected actors; the availability of insurance and insurance-like institutions; the structure of markets for the supplies and outputs of affected actors; and the condition of formal emergency warning and response systems. Research on the effects of climatic variability should distinguish the effects of climate from those of such variables as these and clarify the dependency of climatic effects on these other variables.
From page 138...
... In conjunction with research on coping strategies, this research would make it possible to estimate the future benefits of climate forecasts in the context of expected future social conditions.
From page 139...
... Thus, research illuminating the distribution of the benefits of climate forecasts and the effects of policy interventions on this distribution is likely to be relevant to a wide range of public policy choices. In addition, research might examine the possibility that, even if everyone made optimal responses to better forecasts, these re
From page 140...
... 12. How adequate are existing data for addressing questions about the consequences of climate variability and the value and consequences of climate forecasts?
From page 141...
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