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From page 165... ... , 90, 109 insurance, 41, 43-44, 64, 65-66, 83, 138 165 market mechanisms, 42, 44, 49, 57, 58 usefulness of forecasts, 44-45, 64, 65, 67-73 (passim) , 81,113-115, 117 see also Drought; Food supply; Rural areas Argentina, 8, 52 Asia E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation, 8 monsoons, 16, 25, 32, 40, 64, 90 see also specific countries Atlantic Ocean, 16 North Atlantic Oscillation, 34 Atmosphere-ocean interactions, see Ocean-atmosphere interactions Atmospheric pressure, 22, 24, 25, 30 Attitudes, see Beliefs; Cultural factors Australia, 8-9, 26, 33, 47 B Bayesian theory, 104, 115-117 Beliefs, 3,13,16, 71-73,118,124,134 fishery management, 46 Read the entire page →
From page 166... ... 166 human information processing, 7374,77,81,94 see also Cultural factors Boundary conditions, 21, 22, 23, 37 see also Ocean-atmosphere interactions Brazil, 8, 9, 25, 47, 68-70 Bureau of Reclamation, 67-68 C California, 7-8, 33-34, 48, 50 Cane-Zebiak model, 27, 28 Case studies, 67, 77, 91, 105, 113-114, 121, 134 Chile, 8, 26 Climate, definition, 11, 18-19, 22 Climate parameters, general, 2-3, 103, 125, 130, 131 agricultural sector, 40, 90 information dissemination, 66, 72, 84, 90, 127 ocean-atmosphere interactions, 37 public health and, 66, 90 sector\ group sensitivity, 37, 125, 131 skill of forecasts, 37 traditional forecasts, 72 usefulness of forecasts, 2-3, 36, 37, 72, 127 see also Atmospheric pressure; Precipitation; Temperature factors Coastal areas, x, 15, 32, 46, 48 see also Tropical storms Communication between forecast producers and consumers, 36, 37, 84 persuasive, 85, 93 see also Information dissemination; Participatory approaches; Risk communication Consequences of climatic variations/ forecasts, 2, 5-7, 95-123, 125, 126, 136-140 E1 Nino, 7-10 INDEX see also Distribution of costs and benefits; Effects of climate variations / forecasts Coping strategies and systems, 3, 4, 5, 6, 11-13, 16-17, 38-62, 124, 126 127, 129, 130-131 agricultural sector, 39, 40-45, 48, 49 50, 51, 58, 98-99 cost and cost-benefit, 41, 42, 43, 45, 67-68 cultural factors, 43-44, 53, 60-61, 62 decision making, general, 38, 50-51, 59, 62 developing countries, general, 42 43,51 disparities, 42-44, 57-58, 60-61 diversification, 41, 44, 60 drought, 35, 42, 48, 49, 50, 58 effects of climate variability and, 98-99, 108, 137, 138 ex ante and ex post, 40-42, 58-60, 99 fisheries management, 45-46 flood management, 11-12, 50-51, 55, 59 forests and other ecosystems, 47-48 health effects, 39, 51-52 hedging, 41-42, 44, 57-59, 60, 62 information dissemination and, 62, 64, 89-90, 94, 133-134 institutional, 10, 12, 17, 39, 40-49 (passim) , 54, 60, 99, 139 market mechanisms, 39, 42, 44, 49, 57-58; see also "hedging" supra organizational, 4, 5, 17, 38, 53, 54, 56-57 theory of, 130-131 value of forecasts, 95-96, 120-121, 127, 137 water supply, 39, 48-50, 58, 59, 65, 69 see also Emergency preparedness and response; Insurance and re~nsurance Cost and cost-benefit factors, 19-20, 93-94, 107-108, 112-114, 119, 120, 122-123 agricultural sector, 41, 42, 43, 45, 108, 117 Read the entire page →
From page 167... ... INDEX coping strategies, 41, 42, 43, 45, 6768 E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation, 8, 97 fishery management, 45, 46 flooding, 51, 112 see also Consequences of climatic variations / forecasts; Distribution of costs and benefits; Effects of climate variations / forecasts Cultural factors, 3, 4, 13, 40 beliefs about weather, 71-73, 77 coping strategies, 43-44, 53, 60-61, 62 "green revolution" as analog to information dissemination, 80, 82-83 information dissemination and, 7173, 77-79, 86, 93, 133 organizational, 4, 77-79 risk perception/behavior, 77 see also Beliefs D Decision making, general, x, xi, 12, 34, 35-36, 100, 101-102, 103-108, 111-112, 114-116 Bayesian theory, 104, 115-117 coping strategies, 38, 50-51, 59, 62 human information processing, model of, 73-74, 94 information dissemination, 63, 6465 response to forecasting, 71, 72, 7374,90,94 see also Uncertainty Department of Energy, xi Department of the Interior, see Bureau of Reclamation Developing countries, general, ix, 8, 108 coping strategies, 42-43, 51 Global Telecommunications System, 20 see also Famine; specific countries 167 Diet and nutrition, see Nutrition Disasters, general, 1 emergency preparedness, 6, 53, 5557 warnings, 80, 82-93, 85, 87, 88 see also Drought; Emergency preparedness and response; Emergency warning systems; Famine; Fires; Floods; Insurance and reinsurance; Tropical storms; Vulnerability to climate variations Diseases and disorders, see Health effects Dissemination of information, see Information dissemination Distribution of costs and benefits of climate variation, 97, 105-106 coping strategies, 42-44, 57-58, 6061 forecast information, 66-67, 82-83, 86, 93-94 of improved forecasts, 6, 119, 122123, 129, 139-140 Diversification, as coping strategy, 41, 44,60 Drought, 14, 67-68, 83, 102, 140 coping strategies, 35, 42, 48, 49, 50, 58 E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation, x, 89, 40, 68-70 forecasts, 68-70 E Ecology, 47-48, 50, 108 infectious diseases, 51-52 marine mammals, 9, 48 see also Fisheries; Forests Economic factors, 6, 8, 14, 35, 96, 113 models, 96, 103, 107-108, 114-115, 117 sectoral, general, 3, 6, 13, 21, 32, 37, 39-51, 89, 93, 96, 97, 104, 120, 133; see also specific sectors see also Agricultural sector; Cost Read the entire page →
From page 168... ... 168 and cost-benefit factors; Developing countries; Fisheries; Forests; Insurance and reinsurance; Market forces; Water supply Economics and Human Dimensions of Climate Fluctuations program, x Ecuador, 8, 26, 33 Education, see Information dissemination Educational attainment, 4, 82, 83, 86, 93, 94, 123, 124, 126, 128, 133, 136, 137, 139 literacy, 81, 93 Effects of climate variations/forecasts, 5, 6, 95-123, 126, 136-140 agricultural sector, 96-97, 98-99, 102-104, 106, 108, 123 coping strategies, general, 98-99, 108, 137, 138 INDEX nowcasting, 31-32 precipitation, 7-8, 20, 25, 26, 30-31, 32, 33, 34 sea surface temperature, 1, 7, 9, 19, 20, 23-24, 25-28, 30-34 spatial factors, 32-33 tropical storms, 8, 32, 109 Emergency preparedness and response, 6, 35, 55-57, 59, 67, 70, 78-79, 82-83, 109 refugees, 8 Emergency warning systems, 6, 17, 35, 55, 78-79, 80, 82-83, 85, 86, 87, 88 Environmental protection, see Ecology; Pro-environmental behavior Ethical issues, see Legal/ethical issues Europe, 16 F defined, 96 Famine, ix, 35, 70-71, 90 E1 Nino, 7-10, 101, 109, 110, 134 insurance sector, 96, 97, 112, 139 models, 5, 96, 97, 98-108, 121, 122, 138-139 regional factors, 96, 104, 120 time factors, 96, 97, 125 value of forecasting vs. 95-96 see also Consequences of climate variations / forecasts; Distribution of costs and benefits E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation, x, 1-2, 7-10, 16, 19, 23-34, 64, 68-70, 101, 109, 110, 127, 141 agricultural sector, 8, 32, 68-70 cost and cost-benefit factors, 8, 97 drought, x, 8-9, 40, 68-70 effects of forecasts, 7-10, 101, 109, 110, 134 forest fires, 8, 47 health effects, 8, 9, 51-52 information dissemination, 1-2, 4, 19, 23-24, 29, 30, 74, 89, 92, 134 Internet, 19, 23-24, 29, 30 marine ecosystems, 9, 47-48 Federal Emergency Management Agency, 112 Federal government, 95 agricultural insurance, 43, 64 flood insurance, 55, 112 funding, general, 95 reinsurance, 55 see also specific departments and agencies Fires, 55, 56 E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation, 8, 47 Fisheries, 32, 33-34, 45-46, 47-48, 62, 111 Floods, 7, 8, 13, 35, 50-51, 70, 97, 105 coping strategies, 11-12, 50-51, 55, 59 cost and cost-benefit factors, 51, 112 federal insurance, 55, 112 forecasts, 51 vulnerability, 15, 97 warning systems, 86 Florida, 62 Food supply, ix, 14, 40, 57, 108 E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation, 8, 9 see also Agricultural sector; Famine; Nutrition Read the entire page →
From page 169... ... INDEX Forecasting, general, x, 1-2, 7, 9-10 benefits of, 3, 10, 12-13, 15, 95, 101, 119, 130-133; see also "usefulness" infra consequences of, 2, 95-123, 125, 126, 136-140 coping strategies and, general, 38, 39, 42-43, 44-45, 46, 50-51, 52, 54, 59, 60, 63 disparities of benefits, 6, 61, 82, 83, 86, 93, 122-123, 124-125, 128, 131, 139 drought, 68-70 failures, 4, 10, 67-68, 69-70, 76, 113114, 135 famine, 70-71 flood, 51 hindcasts, 24 nowcasting, 20-21, 27, 31-32 overconfidence, 76, 92, 127 response to forecasts, 67-77, 91-92, 138-139 sea surface temperature, 23 sectoral, general, 3, 6, 13, 21, 32, 37, 93, 96, 97, 120, 133; see also specific sectors short-term, x, 19, 20, 85, 127, 134; see also nowcasting supra skill, general, 9, 15-16, 21, 25, 27, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 44-45, 118, 122, 124, 125, 138; see also "failures" supra technology of, 18-29 traditional, 71-73 usefulness, 15-16, 19-20, 34, 35-37, 60, 63-94, 108-120, 125, 126, 127-128, 130 see also Information dissemination; Information in climate forecasts; Interannual variability; Seasonal factors; Uncertainty Foreign countries see also Developing countries; International programs; specific countries 169 Forests, ix, 47, 56, 102 agricultural encroachment, 47 E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation, 8, 47 Foundation for Meteorological and Hydrological Resources (Brazil) , 69 G Global Change Research Program, 1 Global Telecommunications System, 20 Global warming, x, 13, 35, 72-73 Government role, 69-70, 111 disaster transfer payments, 13, 138 funding, 95 information dissemination, 87 see also Emergency preparedness and response; Federal government; State government Greenhouse effect, see Global warming H Health effects, 35, 39, 51-52, 59-60, 66 coping strategies, general, 39, 51-52 E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation, 8, 9, 51-52 emergency preparedness and response, 55, 90 nutrition, 14, 51, 52, 71; see also Famine; Food supply public health information dissemination, 80, 84-85, 86-87, 88 public health, other, 66, 90 risk communication, 55, 80, 84, 8788 Healthy behaviors, 80, 84-85, 86-87, 88 Hedging strategies, 41-42, 44, 57-58, 60,62 Hindcasts, 24 Historical perspectives, ix, 27-28, 38, 140-141 agricultural insurance, 43 climate indicators, 35 Read the entire page →
From page 170... ... , 90, 109 analogies from fields outside climate forecasting, 79-87, 89, 91-92, 119 risk communication, 55, 80, 84, 87-88 case studies of, 67-71 channels, 81-82, 92 climate parameters, general, 66, 72, 84, 90, 127 INDEX cultural factors, 71-73, 77-79, 86, 93, 133 delivery systems, 3-4, 59, 81-84, 9293, 128, 135-136 disaster warning as analog, 80, 8286 educational attainment and, see Educational attainment E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation, 1-2, 4, 19, 23-24, 29, 30, 74, 89, 92, 134 Internet, 19, 23-24, 29, 30 emergency warning systems, 6, 17, 35, 55, 78-79, 80, 82-83, 85, 86, 87 ethical and legal issues, 40, 136 global, 20, 21; see also Internet green revolution as analog, 80, 82 83 hedging and, 41-42, 44, 57-59, 60, 62 individuals' responses, 4, 79-80, 81, 89, 91-92 models of, 86-89 organizational responses, 4, 56-57, 77-79, 91-92, 94, 127, 128, 131, 134-135, 139 participatory approaches, 84, 87, 88-89, 92, 125, 128, 132-133 persuasive communication, 85-86, 87, 93, 128 proenvironmental behavior as analog, 80-86 public health as analog, 80, 84-85, 86-87, 88 redundancy, 81-82 risk communication as analog, 80, 87-88 socioeconomic status and, see Socioeconomic status vulnerability and, 68, 83, 90, 94 see also Decision making; Distribution of costs and benefits; Information in climate forecasts; Internet; Learning theory; Risk communication Read the entire page →
From page 171... ... , 54, 60, 99, 139 usefulness of forecasts, 64, 65, 122 see also Market forces; Organizational factors Insurance and reinsurance, 6, 7, 13, 14, 39, 42, 54-55, 59, 60, 123 agricultural sector, 41, 43-44, 64, 6566, 83, 138 171 see also E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation; North Atlantic Oscillation International Crop Research Institute for Semi-Arid Tropics, 106 International Geosphere-Biosphere Program, 105 International perspectives, see also Developing countries; Foreign countries; Regional factors; specific countries and continents International programs, x, 21, 105, 106 International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, xi Internet beliefs about weather, 71 E1 Nino, 19, 23-24, 29, 30 seasonal/interannual prediction, other, 19, 31, 55 L Learning theory, 4, 30, 74, 75, 78, 79, 82, 92, 104, 128 Bayesian, 104, 115-117 Legal/ethical issues, 4, 39, 49, 68, 113 114, 136 M Marine mammals, 9, 48 Market forces, 39, 57-58 agricultural sector, coping strategies, 41-42, 44, 49, 57, 58 hedging, 41-42, 44, 57-59, 60, 62 see also Insurance and reinsurance Mass media, ix, 4, 7, 10, 16, 85-86, 92, 110, 134, 136 effects of forecasts, 96, 97, 112, 139 industry organizational response, 78 informal, 43-44 Meta-data, 5, 123, 129 usefulness of forecasts, 65-66, 67, Mexico, 8, 47, 82-83, 88-89, 106, 109 ' . Read the entire page →
From page 172... ... , 37, 125 sea ice, 21 see also E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation; North Atlantic Oscillation; Sea surface temperature Office of Global Programs, x, xii, 52 Organizational factors, 4, 5, 17, 38, 53, 54, 71, 106-107 coping strategies, 4, 5, 17, 38, 53, 54, 56-57 culture, 4, 77-79 "groupthink," 78 new information, responses to, 7779, 94, 128 response to information, 56-57, 7779, 91-92, 94, 127, 128, 131, 134135, 139 Overconfidence in forecasts, 76, 92, 127 p Pacific Decadal Oscillation, 34 Pacific Ocean, 26, 30, 33 see also E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation Parameters, climate, see Climate parameters Participatory approaches, 84, 87, 8889, 92, 125, 128, 132 Read the entire page →
From page 173... ... INDEX Peru, 8, 9, 26, 33, 111 Poverty, see Developing countries; Socioeconomic status Precipitation, 11, 12, 22, 25, 26, 30, 36, 81, 90, 105 E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation, 7-8, 20,25,26,30-31,32,33,34 sector-based forecasts, 32 see also Drought; Floods; Monsoons Pressure, see Atmospheric pressure Private sector, general, 21, 134 fishery resource ownership, 45 Pro-environmental behavior, 35, 50, 87 fisheries, 45-46 forests and other ecosystems, 47-48 "green revolution", 80, 82-83, 119 information systems, 80, 82-83, 85, 86 Psychological factors, see Beliefs; Cultural factors Public health, see Health effects Public information, see Information dissemination; Information in climate forecasts R Rain, see Floods; Monsoons; Precipitation Refugees, 8 Regional factors, x, 3, 33, 128, 133 coping strategies, 48, 49, 51, 55, 56 effects of climate variation, 96, 104, 120 value/usefulness of forecasts, 1516, 37, 64, 89, 91, 93, 125, 130, 133 see also Atlantic Ocean; Pacific Ocean; specific continents and countries Reinsurance, see Insurance and reinsurance Risk communication, 55, 80, 84, 87-88 Risk management, see Coping strategies and systems; Insurance and reinsurance 173 Rural areas, x, 50, 106 see also Agricultural sector S Satellite technology, 70-71 Global Telecommunications System, 20 Sea ice, 21, 23 Seasonal factors, general, ix-x, 10, 12, 15,16,21-22,69-71,117,136 climate indices, 35 coping strategies, 11, 38-62 usefulness of forecasts, 66, 125 Sea surface temperature, 21, 23, 25-27, 29,37,69 coupled atmospheric-ocean models, 1, 23, 24-33 (passim) , 37, 125 E1 Nino, 1, 7, 9, 19, 20, 23-24, 25-28, 30-34 Sensitivity to climate variations, 5, 1314, 15, 36, 40, 61-62, 71, 89, 96, 110, 112, 119, 120, 121, 125, 126, 128, 131 coping strategies, 54, 60, 61-62, 126 defined, 14 Short-term climate prediction, x, 19, 20, 85, 127, 134 see also Emergency warning systems; Nowcasting Skill of climate forecasts, 9, 15-16, 21, 25,27,34,35,36,37,38,44-45, 118, 122, 124, 125, 138 defined, 26-27 failures, 4, 10, 76, 113-114, 135 see also Uncertainty Social factors, xi, 2, 3, 5, 6, 9, 11-16, 18, 35, 38, 69, 109, 113, 127, 137 138 case studies, 67, 77, 91, 105, 113 114, 121, 134 coping strategies, 43-45, 53, 60-61, 62, 98-99 models of, xi, 80, 82-87, 98-99, 100, 101-102, 103, 105-106, 120, 122, 125 Read the entire page →
From page 174... ... program, 21 Tropical storms, 58, 62, 86, 140 E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation and, 8, 32, 109 urban areas, 15 U Uncertainty, general, 2, 4, 10, 36-37, 37-39, 65, 88, 118, 125 accuracy thresholds, 91 chaos, 2, 36 ethical/legal issues, 4, 39, 49, 68, 113-114, 136 failures in forecasting, 4, 10, 76, 113-114, 135 fishery management, 45-46 in forecasts, 4, 75-76, 92, 118 human information processing, 7576, 79 information dissemination, 65, 7576,77-78,79,81,87-93 (passim) Read the entire page →
From page 175... ... 95-96 institutional factors, 64, 65, 122 insurance, 65-66, 67, 110, 120 regional, 15-16, 37, 64, 89, 91, 93, 125, 130, 133 sectoral, general, 3, 6, 13, 21, 32, 37, 39-51, 89, 130, 131-132, 133; see also specific sectors see also Uncertainty 175 Vector-borne diseases, 52, 90 Venezuela, 8, 9 Vulnerability to climate variations, x, 2, 5, 6, 14-15, 51, 61-62, 105-106, 121, 122, 125, 128, 139 climate indicators, general, 35 coping strategies, 60, 61-62, 126 defined, 14-15 information dissemination, 68, 83, 90,94 see also Sensitivity to climate variations W Warning systems, see Emergency warning systems; Nowcasting Water supply, 1, 8, 9, 11, 12, 26, 67-68, 108, 113-114 coping strategies, 39, 48-50, 58, 59, 65, 69 see also Drought Wind, 11, 24, 27, 32, 102 World Wide Web, see Internet y Yakima Valley, 67-68 Read the entire page →

From page 165...

... , 90, 109 insurance, 41, 43-44, 64, 65-66, 83, 138 165 market mechanisms, 42, 44, 49, 57, 58 usefulness of forecasts, 44-45, 64, 65, 67-73 (passim) , 81,113-115, 117 see also Drought; Food supply; Rural areas Argentina, 8, 52 Asia E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation, 8 monsoons, 16, 25, 32, 40, 64, 90 see also specific countries Atlantic Ocean, 16 North Atlantic Oscillation, 34 Atmosphere-ocean interactions, see Ocean-atmosphere interactions Atmospheric pressure, 22, 24, 25, 30 Attitudes, see Beliefs; Cultural factors Australia, 8-9, 26, 33, 47 B Bayesian theory, 104, 115-117 Beliefs, 3,13,16, 71-73,118,124,134 fishery management, 46

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From page 166...

... 166 human information processing, 7374,77,81,94 see also Cultural factors Boundary conditions, 21, 22, 23, 37 see also Ocean-atmosphere interactions Brazil, 8, 9, 25, 47, 68-70 Bureau of Reclamation, 67-68 C California, 7-8, 33-34, 48, 50 Cane-Zebiak model, 27, 28 Case studies, 67, 77, 91, 105, 113-114, 121, 134 Chile, 8, 26 Climate, definition, 11, 18-19, 22 Climate parameters, general, 2-3, 103, 125, 130, 131 agricultural sector, 40, 90 information dissemination, 66, 72, 84, 90, 127 ocean-atmosphere interactions, 37 public health and, 66, 90 sector\ group sensitivity, 37, 125, 131 skill of forecasts, 37 traditional forecasts, 72 usefulness of forecasts, 2-3, 36, 37, 72, 127 see also Atmospheric pressure; Precipitation; Temperature factors Coastal areas, x, 15, 32, 46, 48 see also Tropical storms Communication between forecast producers and consumers, 36, 37, 84 persuasive, 85, 93 see also Information dissemination; Participatory approaches; Risk communication Consequences of climatic variations/ forecasts, 2, 5-7, 95-123, 125, 126, 136-140 E1 Nino, 7-10 INDEX see also Distribution of costs and benefits; Effects of climate variations / forecasts Coping strategies and systems, 3, 4, 5, 6, 11-13, 16-17, 38-62, 124, 126 127, 129, 130-131 agricultural sector, 39, 40-45, 48, 49 50, 51, 58, 98-99 cost and cost-benefit, 41, 42, 43, 45, 67-68 cultural factors, 43-44, 53, 60-61, 62 decision making, general, 38, 50-51, 59, 62 developing countries, general, 42 43,51 disparities, 42-44, 57-58, 60-61 diversification, 41, 44, 60 drought, 35, 42, 48, 49, 50, 58 effects of climate variability and, 98-99, 108, 137, 138 ex ante and ex post, 40-42, 58-60, 99 fisheries management, 45-46 flood management, 11-12, 50-51, 55, 59 forests and other ecosystems, 47-48 health effects, 39, 51-52 hedging, 41-42, 44, 57-59, 60, 62 information dissemination and, 62, 64, 89-90, 94, 133-134 institutional, 10, 12, 17, 39, 40-49 (passim) , 54, 60, 99, 139 market mechanisms, 39, 42, 44, 49, 57-58; see also "hedging" supra organizational, 4, 5, 17, 38, 53, 54, 56-57 theory of, 130-131 value of forecasts, 95-96, 120-121, 127, 137 water supply, 39, 48-50, 58, 59, 65, 69 see also Emergency preparedness and response; Insurance and re~nsurance Cost and cost-benefit factors, 19-20, 93-94, 107-108, 112-114, 119, 120, 122-123 agricultural sector, 41, 42, 43, 45, 108, 117

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From page 167...

... INDEX coping strategies, 41, 42, 43, 45, 6768 E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation, 8, 97 fishery management, 45, 46 flooding, 51, 112 see also Consequences of climatic variations / forecasts; Distribution of costs and benefits; Effects of climate variations / forecasts Cultural factors, 3, 4, 13, 40 beliefs about weather, 71-73, 77 coping strategies, 43-44, 53, 60-61, 62 "green revolution" as analog to information dissemination, 80, 82-83 information dissemination and, 7173, 77-79, 86, 93, 133 organizational, 4, 77-79 risk perception/behavior, 77 see also Beliefs D Decision making, general, x, xi, 12, 34, 35-36, 100, 101-102, 103-108, 111-112, 114-116 Bayesian theory, 104, 115-117 coping strategies, 38, 50-51, 59, 62 human information processing, model of, 73-74, 94 information dissemination, 63, 6465 response to forecasting, 71, 72, 7374,90,94 see also Uncertainty Department of Energy, xi Department of the Interior, see Bureau of Reclamation Developing countries, general, ix, 8, 108 coping strategies, 42-43, 51 Global Telecommunications System, 20 see also Famine; specific countries 167 Diet and nutrition, see Nutrition Disasters, general, 1 emergency preparedness, 6, 53, 5557 warnings, 80, 82-93, 85, 87, 88 see also Drought; Emergency preparedness and response; Emergency warning systems; Famine; Fires; Floods; Insurance and reinsurance; Tropical storms; Vulnerability to climate variations Diseases and disorders, see Health effects Dissemination of information, see Information dissemination Distribution of costs and benefits of climate variation, 97, 105-106 coping strategies, 42-44, 57-58, 6061 forecast information, 66-67, 82-83, 86, 93-94 of improved forecasts, 6, 119, 122123, 129, 139-140 Diversification, as coping strategy, 41, 44,60 Drought, 14, 67-68, 83, 102, 140 coping strategies, 35, 42, 48, 49, 50, 58 E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation, x, 89, 40, 68-70 forecasts, 68-70 E Ecology, 47-48, 50, 108 infectious diseases, 51-52 marine mammals, 9, 48 see also Fisheries; Forests Economic factors, 6, 8, 14, 35, 96, 113 models, 96, 103, 107-108, 114-115, 117 sectoral, general, 3, 6, 13, 21, 32, 37, 39-51, 89, 93, 96, 97, 104, 120, 133; see also specific sectors see also Agricultural sector; Cost

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From page 168...

... 168 and cost-benefit factors; Developing countries; Fisheries; Forests; Insurance and reinsurance; Market forces; Water supply Economics and Human Dimensions of Climate Fluctuations program, x Ecuador, 8, 26, 33 Education, see Information dissemination Educational attainment, 4, 82, 83, 86, 93, 94, 123, 124, 126, 128, 133, 136, 137, 139 literacy, 81, 93 Effects of climate variations/forecasts, 5, 6, 95-123, 126, 136-140 agricultural sector, 96-97, 98-99, 102-104, 106, 108, 123 coping strategies, general, 98-99, 108, 137, 138 INDEX nowcasting, 31-32 precipitation, 7-8, 20, 25, 26, 30-31, 32, 33, 34 sea surface temperature, 1, 7, 9, 19, 20, 23-24, 25-28, 30-34 spatial factors, 32-33 tropical storms, 8, 32, 109 Emergency preparedness and response, 6, 35, 55-57, 59, 67, 70, 78-79, 82-83, 109 refugees, 8 Emergency warning systems, 6, 17, 35, 55, 78-79, 80, 82-83, 85, 86, 87, 88 Environmental protection, see Ecology; Pro-environmental behavior Ethical issues, see Legal/ethical issues Europe, 16 F defined, 96 Famine, ix, 35, 70-71, 90 E1 Nino, 7-10, 101, 109, 110, 134 insurance sector, 96, 97, 112, 139 models, 5, 96, 97, 98-108, 121, 122, 138-139 regional factors, 96, 104, 120 time factors, 96, 97, 125 value of forecasting vs. 95-96 see also Consequences of climate variations / forecasts; Distribution of costs and benefits E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation, x, 1-2, 7-10, 16, 19, 23-34, 64, 68-70, 101, 109, 110, 127, 141 agricultural sector, 8, 32, 68-70 cost and cost-benefit factors, 8, 97 drought, x, 8-9, 40, 68-70 effects of forecasts, 7-10, 101, 109, 110, 134 forest fires, 8, 47 health effects, 8, 9, 51-52 information dissemination, 1-2, 4, 19, 23-24, 29, 30, 74, 89, 92, 134 Internet, 19, 23-24, 29, 30 marine ecosystems, 9, 47-48 Federal Emergency Management Agency, 112 Federal government, 95 agricultural insurance, 43, 64 flood insurance, 55, 112 funding, general, 95 reinsurance, 55 see also specific departments and agencies Fires, 55, 56 E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation, 8, 47 Fisheries, 32, 33-34, 45-46, 47-48, 62, 111 Floods, 7, 8, 13, 35, 50-51, 70, 97, 105 coping strategies, 11-12, 50-51, 55, 59 cost and cost-benefit factors, 51, 112 federal insurance, 55, 112 forecasts, 51 vulnerability, 15, 97 warning systems, 86 Florida, 62 Food supply, ix, 14, 40, 57, 108 E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation, 8, 9 see also Agricultural sector; Famine; Nutrition

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From page 169...

... INDEX Forecasting, general, x, 1-2, 7, 9-10 benefits of, 3, 10, 12-13, 15, 95, 101, 119, 130-133; see also "usefulness" infra consequences of, 2, 95-123, 125, 126, 136-140 coping strategies and, general, 38, 39, 42-43, 44-45, 46, 50-51, 52, 54, 59, 60, 63 disparities of benefits, 6, 61, 82, 83, 86, 93, 122-123, 124-125, 128, 131, 139 drought, 68-70 failures, 4, 10, 67-68, 69-70, 76, 113114, 135 famine, 70-71 flood, 51 hindcasts, 24 nowcasting, 20-21, 27, 31-32 overconfidence, 76, 92, 127 response to forecasts, 67-77, 91-92, 138-139 sea surface temperature, 23 sectoral, general, 3, 6, 13, 21, 32, 37, 93, 96, 97, 120, 133; see also specific sectors short-term, x, 19, 20, 85, 127, 134; see also nowcasting supra skill, general, 9, 15-16, 21, 25, 27, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 44-45, 118, 122, 124, 125, 138; see also "failures" supra technology of, 18-29 traditional, 71-73 usefulness, 15-16, 19-20, 34, 35-37, 60, 63-94, 108-120, 125, 126, 127-128, 130 see also Information dissemination; Information in climate forecasts; Interannual variability; Seasonal factors; Uncertainty Foreign countries see also Developing countries; International programs; specific countries 169 Forests, ix, 47, 56, 102 agricultural encroachment, 47 E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation, 8, 47 Foundation for Meteorological and Hydrological Resources (Brazil) , 69 G Global Change Research Program, 1 Global Telecommunications System, 20 Global warming, x, 13, 35, 72-73 Government role, 69-70, 111 disaster transfer payments, 13, 138 funding, 95 information dissemination, 87 see also Emergency preparedness and response; Federal government; State government Greenhouse effect, see Global warming H Health effects, 35, 39, 51-52, 59-60, 66 coping strategies, general, 39, 51-52 E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation, 8, 9, 51-52 emergency preparedness and response, 55, 90 nutrition, 14, 51, 52, 71; see also Famine; Food supply public health information dissemination, 80, 84-85, 86-87, 88 public health, other, 66, 90 risk communication, 55, 80, 84, 8788 Healthy behaviors, 80, 84-85, 86-87, 88 Hedging strategies, 41-42, 44, 57-58, 60,62 Hindcasts, 24 Historical perspectives, ix, 27-28, 38, 140-141 agricultural insurance, 43 climate indicators, 35

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From page 170...

... , 90, 109 analogies from fields outside climate forecasting, 79-87, 89, 91-92, 119 risk communication, 55, 80, 84, 87-88 case studies of, 67-71 channels, 81-82, 92 climate parameters, general, 66, 72, 84, 90, 127 INDEX cultural factors, 71-73, 77-79, 86, 93, 133 delivery systems, 3-4, 59, 81-84, 9293, 128, 135-136 disaster warning as analog, 80, 8286 educational attainment and, see Educational attainment E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation, 1-2, 4, 19, 23-24, 29, 30, 74, 89, 92, 134 Internet, 19, 23-24, 29, 30 emergency warning systems, 6, 17, 35, 55, 78-79, 80, 82-83, 85, 86, 87 ethical and legal issues, 40, 136 global, 20, 21; see also Internet green revolution as analog, 80, 82 83 hedging and, 41-42, 44, 57-59, 60, 62 individuals' responses, 4, 79-80, 81, 89, 91-92 models of, 86-89 organizational responses, 4, 56-57, 77-79, 91-92, 94, 127, 128, 131, 134-135, 139 participatory approaches, 84, 87, 88-89, 92, 125, 128, 132-133 persuasive communication, 85-86, 87, 93, 128 proenvironmental behavior as analog, 80-86 public health as analog, 80, 84-85, 86-87, 88 redundancy, 81-82 risk communication as analog, 80, 87-88 socioeconomic status and, see Socioeconomic status vulnerability and, 68, 83, 90, 94 see also Decision making; Distribution of costs and benefits; Information in climate forecasts; Internet; Learning theory; Risk communication

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... , 54, 60, 99, 139 usefulness of forecasts, 64, 65, 122 see also Market forces; Organizational factors Insurance and reinsurance, 6, 7, 13, 14, 39, 42, 54-55, 59, 60, 123 agricultural sector, 41, 43-44, 64, 6566, 83, 138 171 see also E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation; North Atlantic Oscillation International Crop Research Institute for Semi-Arid Tropics, 106 International Geosphere-Biosphere Program, 105 International perspectives, see also Developing countries; Foreign countries; Regional factors; specific countries and continents International programs, x, 21, 105, 106 International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, xi Internet beliefs about weather, 71 E1 Nino, 19, 23-24, 29, 30 seasonal/interannual prediction, other, 19, 31, 55 L Learning theory, 4, 30, 74, 75, 78, 79, 82, 92, 104, 128 Bayesian, 104, 115-117 Legal/ethical issues, 4, 39, 49, 68, 113 114, 136 M Marine mammals, 9, 48 Market forces, 39, 57-58 agricultural sector, coping strategies, 41-42, 44, 49, 57, 58 hedging, 41-42, 44, 57-59, 60, 62 see also Insurance and reinsurance Mass media, ix, 4, 7, 10, 16, 85-86, 92, 110, 134, 136 effects of forecasts, 96, 97, 112, 139 industry organizational response, 78 informal, 43-44 Meta-data, 5, 123, 129 usefulness of forecasts, 65-66, 67, Mexico, 8, 47, 82-83, 88-89, 106, 109 ' .

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... , 37, 125 sea ice, 21 see also E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation; North Atlantic Oscillation; Sea surface temperature Office of Global Programs, x, xii, 52 Organizational factors, 4, 5, 17, 38, 53, 54, 71, 106-107 coping strategies, 4, 5, 17, 38, 53, 54, 56-57 culture, 4, 77-79 "groupthink," 78 new information, responses to, 7779, 94, 128 response to information, 56-57, 7779, 91-92, 94, 127, 128, 131, 134135, 139 Overconfidence in forecasts, 76, 92, 127 p Pacific Decadal Oscillation, 34 Pacific Ocean, 26, 30, 33 see also E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation Parameters, climate, see Climate parameters Participatory approaches, 84, 87, 8889, 92, 125, 128, 132

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... INDEX Peru, 8, 9, 26, 33, 111 Poverty, see Developing countries; Socioeconomic status Precipitation, 11, 12, 22, 25, 26, 30, 36, 81, 90, 105 E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation, 7-8, 20,25,26,30-31,32,33,34 sector-based forecasts, 32 see also Drought; Floods; Monsoons Pressure, see Atmospheric pressure Private sector, general, 21, 134 fishery resource ownership, 45 Pro-environmental behavior, 35, 50, 87 fisheries, 45-46 forests and other ecosystems, 47-48 "green revolution", 80, 82-83, 119 information systems, 80, 82-83, 85, 86 Psychological factors, see Beliefs; Cultural factors Public health, see Health effects Public information, see Information dissemination; Information in climate forecasts R Rain, see Floods; Monsoons; Precipitation Refugees, 8 Regional factors, x, 3, 33, 128, 133 coping strategies, 48, 49, 51, 55, 56 effects of climate variation, 96, 104, 120 value/usefulness of forecasts, 1516, 37, 64, 89, 91, 93, 125, 130, 133 see also Atlantic Ocean; Pacific Ocean; specific continents and countries Reinsurance, see Insurance and reinsurance Risk communication, 55, 80, 84, 87-88 Risk management, see Coping strategies and systems; Insurance and reinsurance 173 Rural areas, x, 50, 106 see also Agricultural sector S Satellite technology, 70-71 Global Telecommunications System, 20 Sea ice, 21, 23 Seasonal factors, general, ix-x, 10, 12, 15,16,21-22,69-71,117,136 climate indices, 35 coping strategies, 11, 38-62 usefulness of forecasts, 66, 125 Sea surface temperature, 21, 23, 25-27, 29,37,69 coupled atmospheric-ocean models, 1, 23, 24-33 (passim) , 37, 125 E1 Nino, 1, 7, 9, 19, 20, 23-24, 25-28, 30-34 Sensitivity to climate variations, 5, 1314, 15, 36, 40, 61-62, 71, 89, 96, 110, 112, 119, 120, 121, 125, 126, 128, 131 coping strategies, 54, 60, 61-62, 126 defined, 14 Short-term climate prediction, x, 19, 20, 85, 127, 134 see also Emergency warning systems; Nowcasting Skill of climate forecasts, 9, 15-16, 21, 25,27,34,35,36,37,38,44-45, 118, 122, 124, 125, 138 defined, 26-27 failures, 4, 10, 76, 113-114, 135 see also Uncertainty Social factors, xi, 2, 3, 5, 6, 9, 11-16, 18, 35, 38, 69, 109, 113, 127, 137 138 case studies, 67, 77, 91, 105, 113 114, 121, 134 coping strategies, 43-45, 53, 60-61, 62, 98-99 models of, xi, 80, 82-87, 98-99, 100, 101-102, 103, 105-106, 120, 122, 125

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... program, 21 Tropical storms, 58, 62, 86, 140 E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation and, 8, 32, 109 urban areas, 15 U Uncertainty, general, 2, 4, 10, 36-37, 37-39, 65, 88, 118, 125 accuracy thresholds, 91 chaos, 2, 36 ethical/legal issues, 4, 39, 49, 68, 113-114, 136 failures in forecasting, 4, 10, 76, 113-114, 135 fishery management, 45-46 in forecasts, 4, 75-76, 92, 118 human information processing, 7576, 79 information dissemination, 65, 7576,77-78,79,81,87-93 (passim)

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... 95-96 institutional factors, 64, 65, 122 insurance, 65-66, 67, 110, 120 regional, 15-16, 37, 64, 89, 91, 93, 125, 130, 133 sectoral, general, 3, 6, 13, 21, 32, 37, 39-51, 89, 130, 131-132, 133; see also specific sectors see also Uncertainty 175 Vector-borne diseases, 52, 90 Venezuela, 8, 9 Vulnerability to climate variations, x, 2, 5, 6, 14-15, 51, 61-62, 105-106, 121, 122, 125, 128, 139 climate indicators, general, 35 coping strategies, 60, 61-62, 126 defined, 14-15 information dissemination, 68, 83, 90,94 see also Sensitivity to climate variations W Warning systems, see Emergency warning systems; Nowcasting Water supply, 1, 8, 9, 11, 12, 26, 67-68, 108, 113-114 coping strategies, 39, 48-50, 58, 59, 65, 69 see also Drought Wind, 11, 24, 27, 32, 102 World Wide Web, see Internet y Yakima Valley, 67-68

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Index Pages 165-175

Index
Pages 165-175