Making Climate Forecasts Matter (1999) / Chapter Skim
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3 Coping with Seasonal-to-Interannual Climatic Variations
3 Coping with Seasonal-to-Interannual Climatic Variations
Pages 38-62
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From page 38... ...
Thus, they have organized themselves to expect climatic surprises and to deal with their impacts after the fact. The newly developing scientific skill in climate forecasting may fundamentally change the ways social systems cope with climatic variation by reducing the magnitude or frequency of surprise and by providing more time to prepare for climatic events.
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From page 39... ...
The chapter examines available knowledge about coping systems for climate variability in order to characterize the state of knowledge; identify ways in which coping strategies may shape the impacts climatic variations have on the people and groups that use them; and define gaps in knowledge that, if filled, could help increase the usefulness of climate forecasting for humanity. We first examine human coping mechanisms in several weather-dependent sectors of human activity, including agriculture and water management.
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From page 40... ...
Indeed, in a variety of cultures and environments that exist under the stress of high climatic variability, primary cultural characteristics such as social relations, land tenure systems, institutions, laws, and land use practices are organized as coping mechanisms for dealing with climatic variability (Mine and Smith, 1989; Legge, 1989; Blaikie and Brookfield, 1987; Halstead and O'Shea, 1989; Fratkin et al., 1994~. The methods by which individuals directly engaged in agricultural production cope with climatic variability can be classified according to whether these strategies and behaviors affect production (the sensitivity of agricultural output and incomes to climatic events)
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From page 41... ...
Similarly, if farmers' incomes were perfectly insured against reductions due to adverse climate outcomes, they would need to engage less in other ex ante coping strategies that reduce the risk of income loss, and they would have less need to accumulate assets as a buffer against income loss. Another important feature of agricultural coping evident in the table is that many of the ex ante coping strategies that reduce sensitivity to climatic variations are undertaken mainly to reduce the risk of extreme negative events.
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From page 42... ...
Groups facing the same climatic variability are more or less vulnerable to extreme negative climatic events depending on their ability to make use of particular coping strategies and methods. For example, low-income farmers in developing countries, who comprise a large proportion of the world population, are less able than their wealthier neighbors to accumulate assets while meeting minimum subsistence requirements; such poor farmers are thus less able to maintain their consumption by drawing from their savings levels when they experience particularly low levels of rainfall (Rosenzweig and Wolpin, 1993~.
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From page 43... ...
Moreover, U.S. agricultural history is marked by instances in which the federal government has provided insurance-like income support to farmers suffering income losses from extreme climatic events.
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From page 44... ...
The interdependence among the different methods for coping with climatic variability and the scope for engaging in them must be taken into account in evaluating the effects of climatic variation and the potential gains from improved climate forecasting. In addition, the combinations of individual and cultural coping strategies, developed over centuries and often serving populations well, can be fragile with respect to changes in environment and society.
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From page 45... ...
In addition, the effects of climatic variations on fisheries are usually difficult to observe. Except for anadromous fish stocks, marine fish populations remain hidden from view, so that the size of breeding stocks must be inferred largely from harvest information.
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From page 46... ...
In such circumstances, it is possible that improved information on the links between climatic variations and fish populations could reduce uncertainty and allow the parties to forge a common view as to their best joint harvesting policy. If so, the likelihood of breakdowns in cooperation and associated economic losses might diminish.
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From page 47... ...
The 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 E1 Nino events clearly showed the effects of climatic variations on forest conditions in Austral-Asia and Latin America. In 1982-1983, more than 400,000 hectares of forest burned in East Kalimantan, Indonesia, and wildfires also devastated parts of Australia and southern Brazil.
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From page 48... ...
Many riparian and grassland ecosystems are also highly sensitive to climatic variability. Coping systems affecting livestock production on grassland ecosystems are discussed in an earlier section.
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From page 49... ...
Such voluntary marketing generally is not possible in the riparian tradition states, where state agencies may play a central role in allocating water supplies during drought emergencies. Responses to seasonal-to-interannual variations in water supply historically have taken the form of long-term investments in surface water storage, groundwater pumping capacity, and transbasin diversions.
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From page 50... ...
In the eastern United States, specific statutes, court decisions, and conditions on state-issued water diversion or discharge permits may determine the range of options available to public agencies to manage the effects of climatic variations on water quality and riparian ecosystems. In the western states, management is constrained by a system of water quantity allocation that makes no allowance for water quality (Tarlock, 1989~.
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From page 51... ...
Human Health Human health is sensitive to several types of climatic variation. Some sensitivities are to extreme events.
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From page 52... ...
and the emergence of a "new" disease called hantavirus pulmonary syndrome stemming from a virus and transmitted through rodent droppings. The effects of climatic variations on ecosystems have been shown to be related to outbreaks of malaria (Bouma et al., 1994a, 1994b; Hales et al., 1996)
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From page 53... ...
Various industries are sensitive to climatic variations. For example, in the energy industry, suppliers of natural gas and electricity are affected by changes in their seasonal demand profiles a cold winter or hot summer will increase demand for energy, which companies may be able to
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From page 54... ...
There has been little systematic study of coping in other climatesensitive industries, such as construction. However, it is reasonable to presume each such sector uses a variety of coping strategies, both ex ante and ex post, developed out of past experience with unpredicted climatic variations.
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From page 55... ...
These innovations may increase the reliability of commercial insurance as a coping strategy for other sectors. Emergency Preparedness and Response Many societies help affected sectors cope with climatic variations by creating general systems of emergency preparedness and response.
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From page 56... ...
A large body of research has examined systems of emergency preparedness and response and developed general knowledge about how they function and the conditions under which they function most effectively. Although the situation is improving, studies in the United States show that, with notable exceptions, disaster preparedness at the local level is usually not well maintained, that emergency planners tend to have low prestige, and that relatively few resources are allocated to disaster preparedness and response (Ross)
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From page 57... ...
Nevertheless, to the extent that global food markets function well, they spread the risks and benefits of climatic variability worldwide. A second example of how markets help cope with climatic variation is the functioning of commodities futures markets.
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From page 58... ...
Climate forecasts have the potential to improve outcomes for people engaged in weather-sensitive activities both by allowing them to take more effective ex ante actions and by reducing the need for ex post strategies. It is analytically useful to distinguish major types of ex ante and ex post coping strategies.
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From page 59... ...
The owners of citrus groves may stockpile grove heaters to use in case of light frost, and the operators of dams leave room in reservoirs to prevent flooding in case of high rates of runoff. These strategies reduce the effects of extreme negative climatic events by ensuring that ex post responses will be more effective.
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From page 60... ...
Therefore, the consequences of climate variability, climate sensitivity, vulnerability, and the usefulness of forecasts cannot be adequately assessed in the absence of a basic understanding of the coping mechanisms being used. Other things being equal, people who have a coping strategy available to them are likely to be less vulnerable to extreme climatic variations and better off in the face of nonextreme variations than people who do not.
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From page 61... ...
Money is associated with better outcomes because it facilitates preparedness, makes possible individual investments to insure against disaster, and cushions the impact of extreme climatic events. It also provides access for individuals who have it to coping strategies that operate through markets, such as hazard insurance, global food distribution, and trading in commodities futures.
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From page 62... ...
For example, farmers consider crop prices and price forecasts when making planting decisions to hedge against climatic events. Fishers consider information on fish stocks as well as climate forecasts in deciding how intensively to fish.
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