Making Climate Forecasts Matter (1999) / Chapter Skim
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1 Climate Variability, Climate Forecasting, and Society
1 Climate Variability, Climate Forecasting, and Society
Pages 7-17
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From page 7... ...
Sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific reached record values of 5 degrees Celsius above normal by June, and researchers were comparing the strength of the event to the 1982-1983 E1 Nino and recalling the worldwide impacts of that event. What made the 1997-1998 E1 Nino different was that scientists were monitoring the event as it developed and making predictions of its evolution 3 to 6 months ahead.
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From page 8... ...
In other regions of the United States, E1 Nino was blamed by some for an unusually high number of tornadoes, resulting in more than 120 deaths. On the positive side, E1 Nino was credited for unusually warm winter weather in the Midwest and the Northeast that brought lower heating costs for consumers, downward pressure on oil prices, a longer construction season, decreased snow removal costs, and other benefits.
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From page 9... ...
Poor air quality also affected trade and tourism, and fires in tropical forests have adversely affected wildlife and ecosystem functioning, as well as releasing additional carbon into the atmosphere (Epstein, 1998; Stevens, 1998~. In addition, high sea surface temperatures have taken an enormous toll on sea life, especially marine mammals.
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From page 10... ...
To address this issue, we raise and discuss a broad array of questions. How well adjusted are human systems to the various forms of seasonal and interannual climatic variation, from the commonplace fluctuations that people ordinarily expect and prepare for to infrequent, extreme events that cause major disruption?
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From page 11... ...
Farmers choose crops appropriate to the average local climate and its usual variability and develop agricultural calendars that give a recommended day for planting. People also respond to observed conditions of climate and weather after the fact.
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From page 12... ...
Weather information can now be arrayed in forms that enable decision makers to fine-tune activities so as to get the best possible outcomes from the weather conditions they experience. The focus of this book is on how to achieve similar benefits from the recent impressive advances in understanding the mechanisms that regulate climatic variability on seasonal-to-interannual time scales in many tropical and some temperate regions and in skillfully forecasting climate on these time scales.
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From page 13... ...
In many modern societies, a hazard insurance industry and programs of disaster transfer payments from government have arisen to help offset social and economic loss from the extreme weather conditions that are part of a variable climate. Knowledge about climate is used not only to respond to extreme events by reducing risk and exploiting climatic "windfalls" but also to make minor adjustments to improve efficiency when variations are less extreme.
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From page 14... ...
To the extent that a society or social group understands or accurately anticipates climatic events and their biophysical effects, it may be able to buffer the negative effects of these events and take advantage of climatic opportunities, thus decreasing sensitivity on the downside while exploiting it on the upside. Modern production agriculture and those whose livelihoods depend on it remain sensitive to variability in temperature and precipitation despite decades of technical and social innovation aimed at reducing sensitivity by controlling access to water; limiting infestations of pests, weeds, and diseases; insuring against catastrophic loss; developing drought-tolerant and disease-resistant seed varieties; and the like.
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From page 15... ...
As people depend increasingly on world markets for food, their well-being becomes less sensitive to local climate variations, but perhaps more sensitive to distant climatic events that may threaten their supply lines. The Potential Usefulness of Climate Forecasts Climate forecasting can benefit people by allowing them to change the things they do to anticipate climatic events, thus reducing their sensitivity to negative events and perhaps increasing their sensitivity to positive events.
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From page 16... ...
phenomenon to regions such as Europe and West Africa, where outcomes may be highly sensitive to Atlantic climate variability or to monsoon predictions for Asia, even though predictive skill is currently very limited. Improvements in the skill of forecasts, combined with the expectation that the new knowledge will not be used with perfect efficiency, means that it may be possible to deliver forecast information in ways that lead human groups to cope more effectively with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variability, reduce sensitivity to the downside of climatic variation, and take better advantage of climatic opportunities.
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From page 17... ...
These include actual responses to recent climate forecasts; research on how people assimilate information generally; and past experience with efforts to provide other kinds of scientific and technical information that people might use to improve their well-being, including information on practices to promote personal health and information from hazard warning systems. The chapter concludes by summarizing the state of knowledge and some promising hypotheses about how individuals and institutions are likely to respond to climate forecast information and how to make these responses more effective.
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