Making Climate Forecasts Matter (1999) / Chapter Skim
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Many catastrophic events were linked to the ENSO episode, including water shortages, fires, and crop failure in Central and South America; fires in Southeast Asia; major storms in South America and California; tornadoes that killed more than 120 in the United States; and increased rainfall in the U.S. Southwest that fostered vegetation growth and increased the potential for serious wildfires and the threat of a hantavirus outbreak.
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the consequences of climatic variations and climate forecasts. POTENTIAL BENEFITS OF CLIMATE FORECAST INFORMATION Climate forecasts are inherently uncertain due to chaos in the atmospheric system; moreover, forecasting skill varies geographically, temporally, and by climate parameter.
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DISSEMINATION OF CLIMATE FORECAST INFORMATION The limited evidence from past climate forecasts and a much larger body of evidence on the use of analogous kinds of information show that the effectiveness of forecast information depends strongly on the systems that distribute the information, the channels of distribution, recipients' modes of understanding and judgment about the information sources, and the ways in which the information is presented. This evidence suggests that information deliv
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Research on five scientific questions can advance knowledge about how to improve the dissemination of climate forecast information: 3. How do individuals conceptualize climate variability and react to climate forecasts?
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Various quantitative and qualitative methods exist for estimating the consequences of climate variability and the value of forecasts. However, the methods now in use have important methodological and conceptual limitations, such as overreliance on simplifying assumptions; oversimplification of the dynamic relationships between climate and human consequences; imprecise definitions of key concepts such as adaptation, sensitivity, and vulnerability; lack of distinction between potential and actual value of climate forecasts; lack of attention to outcomes that are not easily measured; lack of explicit attention to the distribution of damages and benefits, especially the impacts of catastrophically large negative events on highly vulnerable activities or groups; and lack of reliable strategies for defining baseline conditions of actors, regions, sectors, and populations.
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9.How are the effects of forecasts shaped by the coping systems available to affected groups and sectors? How might improved forecasts change coping mechanisms and how might changes in coping systems make climate forecasts more valuable?
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