The Role of Diffusion Processes in Fertility Change in Developing Countries (1999) / Chapter Skim
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The Role of Diffusion Processes in Fertility Change in Developing
The Role of Diffusion Processes in Fertility Change in Developing
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Only parts of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia have registered little or no decline in fertility rates. Theories to Explain Fertility Changes Demographers have struggled to explain differences among countries in the timing and speed of such fertility changes as well as how prior mortality declines, socioeconomic changes, organized family planning programs, and the diffusion of various norms and ideals related to childbearing contribute to these differ iThe total fertility rate (TFR)
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While both mortality declines and structural and economic changes remain important elements of explanations for fertility declines, the results of two major research efforts completed in the mid-1980s the Princeton European Fertility Project and the World Fertility Survey caused certain researchers to conclude that structural and economic changes alone provide an incomplete explanation (see Bongaarts and Watkins, 1996; Cleland and Wilson, 1987; Coale and Watkins, 1986~. Some researchers viewed the findings of the Princeton European Fertility Project as providing major support for diffusion theory explanations of fertility change (Knodel and van de Walle, 1979~.
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used micro-level data from Korea to investigate how social networks affect contraceptive decisions. These studies vary in their theory, methods, and data, but each one focuses on social interaction processes and their impact on the timing and pace of fertility change.
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Motivated by these unresolved issues, the National Research Council convened the Workshop on Social Processes Underlying Fertility Change in Developing Countries on January 29-30, 1998, at the National Academy of Sciences in Washington, D.C. This workshop was intended to serve as an arena for leading researchers who are working on diffusion processes and fertility change to discuss their recent theories and findings and to consider the implications that these findings may have for future research and policy endeavors.
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Pure Versus Blended Theories of Diffusion A central theme throughout the workshop was how to identify the relative roles of diffusion and structural change in fertility transition. Alberto Palloni explained the difference between structural and diffusion explanations of behavioral change as follows (1998:4~: "Structural" explanations of behavioral changes seek their cause in the alteration of preferences and opportunities that result from either changes in positions that individuals occupy (individual social mobility)
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For example, an understanding of mortality decline might be followed by a clarification of the risks and benefits of contraceptive methods and then by a resolution of initial uncertainties concerning the benefits of schooling for children. Ron Lesthaeghe observed that a narrow view of what is being diffused will lead to an incomplete understanding of a fertility transition.
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the hitherto unthinkable." To account for the complexity suggested by the above discussion, it may be necessary to develop a more comprehensive definition of diffusion one more precisely tailored to the population and family planning context. One such definition was advanced by Karen Mason and Steven Sinding, who defined diffusion theories of fertility change as follows: "the spread or adoption of new information, ideas, beliefs, or social norms capable of influencing reproduction decisions and behavior that occurs through social interaction and influence, either at the interpersonal level or through impersonal channels such as the mass media."
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of fertility decline. A key methodological issue, then, is that reliance on correlational evidence, as suggested by Peter Marsden, "provides little information about the process of behavioral change." Palloni also noted this inability to distinguish between the results of diffusion and the results of structural change and the difficulty of identifying the process from the observable factors.
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. to elucidate the underlying mechanisms." Steven Durlauf suggested that models of social interaction require "data that can be used to identify reference groups and other subjective attributes of agents." He described the research challenge of using insights offered by the various theoretical models of interaction to design survey instruments that can provide the data needed "to better measure the mechanisms conjectured to generate social interactions." Specific suggestions regarding empirical work on the study of social networks and interactions included the following (with participant's name in brackets)
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· Examination of the specific content of interpersonal interactions related to fertility control, such as what was said that encouraged an individual to adopt a birth control method and whether the encouragement was accompanied by information on how contraceptives work and where to get them (see, for example, Rutenberg and Watkins, 1997~. Such micro-level understanding of the diffusion process could help in creating more effective programs to speed diffusion.
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The implications of this for the diffusion of fertility control are addressed below. Several characteristics of social networks were discussed by Marsden, who observed that the decision to adopt a new product, idea, or behavior depends on characteristics of both the individual and the surrounding social structure.
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Marsden noted that linking and interaction usually increase with attitudinal and behavioral similarity, so that the diffusion process alters the social networks involved. Palloni offered a similar taxonomy of social networks, identifying four mechanisms of interpersonal relations that characterize the social context for adoption decisions.
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In addition, Palloni observed, "it is in homogeneous groups where sanctions are more likely to be applied efficiently against individuals who depart from conventional norms. Under these conditions, it would be individuals in heterogeneous social settings that would be more able to change their behavior." Entwisle described the study she and her colleagues recently conducted in Nang Rong, Thailand, which addressed the question of the relationship between homogeneity and the adoption of a new form of fertility control (injection of hormonal contraceptives)
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As indicated in the discussion of homogeneity, the characteristics of those who are in close spatial proximity to one another may sometimes act as a barrier to rather than a facilitator of diffusion. This point was expressed by Palloni, who suggested that various mechanisms can operate to render spatial proximity a means to either promote or discourage adoption of innovations.
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, Marsden also noted that opinion leaders and their social networks have a far greater influence on adoption of family planning innovations than they do on creating awareness of these innovations. Mass Media Effects It is impossible, of course, to discuss the role of diffusion without addressing the role of mass communications, particularly television.
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· Family planning programs may use deliberate information, education, and communication efforts through mass media to increase awareness of the need for fertility control, provide information designed to increase utilization of available services, or market specific products. From a policy perspective, it is useful to know whether direct, programrelated messages or indirect, more generalized, longer-term messages are more effective in diffusing fertility control.
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They observed that there actually is strong evidence for the effects of population policy on fertility decline, but that such effects are often "accelerative" rather than "originative" and are at times ineffective, especially in the least-developed countries. Mason and Sinding cited specific evidence from "countries in which structural conditions for fertility change have been inauspicious or even antithetical to change, but in which population programs were insti
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Bongaarts and Watkins (1996:668) make the following distinction: National channels of social interaction are particularly relevant in understanding the pace of national fertility transitions once they have begun, whereas global channels are particularly relevant to the timing of the onset of fertility transitions across countries and thus to the pace of global fertility transition ....
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It seems quite plausible that people change their fertility behavior in response to changes in their socioeconomic status, changes in their knowledge about and access to contraceptives, and changes in norms about family size. Diffusion Theories Versus Economic Theories The debate on the roles and relative importance of diffusion and structural change in fertility transition has been one of the most active debates in the demographic literature on diffusion, and the workshop discussion reflected it.
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I conclude that it is unilluminating to confront diffusion theories with competing explanations that regard behaviors as responsive to "structural" factors, such as socioeconomic positions or social class membership, as if diffusion processes did not require or could proceed independently of structural factors that characterize the environment where individuals act and where behaviors take place. Researchers who pit diffusion against structural change are making a spurious distinction, he continued, since both have their basis in rational decision-making on the part of individuals (Palloni, 1998:9~: Diffusion only occurs because individuals decide to adopt after observing others do so, and after updating their information by including observed outcomes associated with others' adoption into their own decision making process....
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Durlauf agreed with Cleland's depiction of a blended diffusion theory, in which structural transformation is the main mechanism of fertility change and diffusion merely facilitates the process. Although he emphasized the critical role of social interactions, he concluded that those interactions alone are not sufficient.
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Sinding observed that it is difficult to separate diffusion by a family planning program from the causal impact of structural economic changes if among the notions diffused by the program is the idea that there are economic benefits to small families. Importance of Cultural Context Lesthaeghe also emphasized the importance of context or culture in determining the relative roles of Coale's ready, willing, and able components: "The correlations between R
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to mandate high levels of economic development to induce even a few individuals to change their behavior." Kertzer agreed and cited Cleland's failure to address class and gender differences, suggesting that "economic, demographic, and political factors all play a role but all within the cultural context." Similarly, Palloni emphasized that "diffusion processes are affected by the social structure of the systems within which they are occurring." In particular, sociocultural factors are an important determinant of the rate of diffusion in a given setting, and, as also suggested by Lesthaeghe, can as easily hinder as facilitate adoption: "the observed regional clustering of fertility changes in Western Europe could be explained by social or economic factors that halted or slowed down a diffusion process already on its way in other regions." Sinding offered a counterpoint to the emphasis on cultural differences. He observed that increasing globalization and the spread of mass communications act to counterbalance the importance of such differences for example, by spreading ideas about the benefits of small families and fostering the desire for more consumer goods.
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In conclusion, more research is needed on models of the diffusion of family planning knowledge and technology, on the measurement of diffusion effects, and on the implications of diffusion research for population policy and programs. The Workshop on Social Processes Underlying Fertility Change in Developing Countries was part of this ongoing exploration.
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