The National Academies Press

Currently Skimming:

Pages 12-32

The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.

From page 12... ... Coping with such computational problems is an ideal task for computers, and there are a variety of software packages available that in one way or another combine decision makers' beliefs and values in order to produce a recommendation . Choos ing between and using these decision aids forces one to face a second inherent difficulty of decision making: not knowing how to define (or structure) Read the entire page →
From page 13... ... A sound research base is needed not only to develop better decision-making methods, but also to give users a fighting chance at being able to identify which methods are indeed better for their purposes. BACKGROUND Ad hoc advice to decision makers can be traced from antiquity to the Sunday supplements. Read the entire page →
From page 14... ... The development of scientific decision aids could be traced in the work of Edwards, Raiffa, Schlaifer, and others, who showed how complex real-world decision situations could be interpreted in terms of the general model. Essential to this model is the notion that decisionmaking problems can be decomposed into components that can be assessed individually, then combined into a general recommendation that reflects the decision makers' best interest. Read the entire page →
From page 15... ... Decision analysis, the most common name for these procedures, is part of the curriculum of most business schools. Although it has met considerable initial resistance from decision makers because of its novelty and because of the explicitness about values and beliefs that it requires, decision analysis seems to be gaining considerable acceptance (e.g., Bonazek, et al., 1981; Brown, et al., 1974; Raiffa, 1968) Read the entire page →
From page 16... ... ~~ ~ ~ These developments are ref lected in the research descr ibed below. There nay seem to be a natural enmity between those purveying techniques of decision analysis and those s tudying their behavioral underpinnings, with the latter revealing the limits of the procedures that the former are trying to sell. Read the entire page →
From page 17... ... Gardne r i SYMPTOMS INPUT TO CO - UTER Male Age 60-69 Site epigastric Radiation none Duration 7~1yr Pattern episodic Pain is moderate Progress worse Aggd by f ood Relief antac id s Nightpain pres. Nausea present Vomiting present Meals: pain Awed Haematemesis abs No indigestion Bowels OR Mictur $tion OK COMPUTER PROBABILITIES BASED ON THESE SY - TOMS 0 25 50 75 10 0 FUNCTIONAL CHOl.ECYSTITI S DUODENAL ULCER GASTRIC ULCER CA. Read the entire page →
From page 18... ... In fact, the compLexity of real decision problems is often so great as to prevent some lessons from being learned from direct study. These recommendations are cast in terms of research needed to improve the use of computerized decision aids, referred to generically as decision analysis. Read the entire page →
From page 19... ... In this light, research that contributes to hardware or software design should also be a useful adjunct to any formal or semiformal decision-making process in which judgment plays a role. Even the devotee of decision analysis often lacks the time or resources to do anything but an informal analysis. Read the entire page →
From page 20... ... . Many decision analysis schemes are sold as standalone systems r to be used by decision makers without the help of a professional decision analyst. Read the entire page →
From page 21... ... Decision analysis schemes seem to complicate life by making these inherent conflicts apparent (McNeil, et al., 1978) Read the entire page →
From page 22... ... One possible response to situations in which decision makers' values are poorly articulated (or nonexistent) is for the decision aider to engage in a dialogue with the client, suggesting alternative ways of thinking about the problem and the implications of various possible resolutions. Read the entire page →
From page 23... ... This work should be continued, with an eye to characterizing and studying the ways In which decision analysis schemes habitually frame questions. Evaluation The decision maker looking for help may be swamped by Offers. Read the entire page →
From page 24... ... variables, such a" the decision maker's alertness to new information that threatens the validity of the decision analysis or the degree of acceptance that a procedure generates for the recommendation it produces (Watson and Brown, 1978) Read the entire page →
From page 25... ... Decision analysis schemes are cold and calculating, and they expect the decision maker to be so as well. It is not clear how well their putative advantages survive when decision makers shift from ~cold. Read the entire page →
From page 26... ... Decision analysts have shown considerable ingenuity in translating formal decision theory into terms that may be understood by less sophisticated decision makers. More work needs to be done in this area, particularly if decision aids are to have stand-alone capacity. Read the entire page →
From page 27... ... Decision theory methods are typically designed to explore and aggregate the beliefs and preferences of a single individual. One approach to dealing with multiple decision makers is a computational scheme for aggregating their beliefs and preferences prior to using them in a common decision model (Rohrbaugh, 1979) Read the entire page →
From page 28... ... For example, a supervisor contemplating the shutdown of a plant because of a malfunction would make wiser choices with even a rudimentary decision analysis (i.e., listing all possible courses of action, sketching out possible consequences and contingencies, crudely working through the expected utility of each action) Read the entire page →
From page 29... ... To be most effective they need a context that affords ready contact with decision theorists and practicing decision analysts. The former can solve the questions of theory to which they are most suited; the latter can provide access to their machines (and perhaps to their clients) Read the entire page →
From page 30... ... M 1981 Behavorial decision theory: processes o j udgment and choice. Read the entire page →
From page 31... ... 1968 Decision Analysis . Addison-Wesley. Read the entire page →
From page 32... ... 1980 Structuring decision problem for decision analysis. Acta Ps~cholo~ica 45 s 71-93. Read the entire page →

From page 12...

... Coping with such computational problems is an ideal task for computers, and there are a variety of software packages available that in one way or another combine decision makers' beliefs and values in order to produce a recommendation . Choos ing between and using these decision aids forces one to face a second inherent difficulty of decision making: not knowing how to define (or structure)