Research Needs for Human Factors (1983) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 33-48
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The U.S. Census Bureau makes similar assumptions when asking people about their employment status, as a step toward directing federal policies and jobs programs.
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New research about elicitation and the translation of existing research findings into more usable form could benefit a wide variety of enterprises. As this chapter discusses, elicitation is not a f ield of inquiry or application in and of itself, but a function that recurs in many problems.
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, linguists, historians (dexter, 1971) , survey researchers (Payne, 1952)
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. Another research strategy is to review existing case studies of mishaps (e.g., in diplomacy, survey research, police work, or software design)
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Whenever there is incompatibility between the way in which knowledge is organized and the way in which it in elicited, the danger arises that the expert may not be used to best advantage, may provide misleading information, or may be seduced into doing a task to which his or her expertise does not extend. For example, risk assessment programs often require the designers of a technical system to describe it in terms of the logical interrelationships between various come portents (including its human operators, repair people, suppliers, etc.)
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38 Gi ven these j udgmental inputs, these program may perform miraculous simulations and calculations ~ however, the value of such analyses is contingent on the quality of the j udgments . The processes by which experts are recruited may or may not take into consideration the need for these special skills.
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. It has produced a fairly robust set of methods for eliciting uncertainty and a moderately good understanding of human performance in this regard.
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. Software packages that attempt to elicit a big picture include some of those used in decision structuring, failure probability modeling (U.S.
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41 · Evaluating the effectiveness of methods that require more and less ~deep. (or analytical or inferential)
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. Although there are many advocates of algorithmic thinking and anecdotal evidence of its power, there do not seem to be many empirical studies of their usefulness (Hogarth and Makridakis, 1981)
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. Some critics of survey research are even advocating that respondents do so deliberately so as to stop the survey juggernaut (see Turner and Martin, in press)
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44 third is to observe ongoing elicitation for which it is possibile to validate responses. Difficulties, once identified, must still be treated.
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Generals who prepare for the last war may fit this stereotype, as may the operators of supervisory control systems who respond to each mishap by ensuring that it will not happen again, then rest confident that the system as a whole is now fail-safe. Three research strategies appear to offer some promise for clarifying these questions.
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Cognitive Science 4:379-426.
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1978 Fault trees: sensitivity of estimated failure probabilities to problem representation. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human perception and Performance 4:330-344.
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1975 Probability encoding in decision analysis. Management Sc fence 22: 340-358 .
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