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Confronting AIDS Update 1988 (1988) / Chapter Skim
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3. Understanding the Course of the Epidemic
Pages 57-60

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From page 57...
... PHS estimated that by the end of 1991 there will have been a cumulative total of 270,000 AIDS cases in the United States and 179,000 deaths. These projections were derived from a model based on a statistical trend analysis of AIDS cases reported to CDC through May 1986, corrected for reporting delays (Morgan and Curran, 19861.
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From page 58...
... Modeling the AIDS epidemic is a dynamic process; as additional data on biological and behavioral factors are collected, these assumptions can be refined and the projections improved. Models can produce widely differing projections of the future number of AIDS cases while accurately describing the present picture of the epidemic (De Gruttola and Mayer, 1988~.
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From page 59...
... Available data on sexual behavior in certain segments of the population may be sufficiently flawed that accurate qualitative data may serve modelers better than quantitative data obtained from selected nonrepresentative samples (IOM, 19881. · More data are required on the size of the IV drug-abusing population, patterns of sharing needles and syringes among drug abusers, and the interactions between drug abuse and sexual behavior.
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From page 60...
... The committee adds its endorsement to the importance of the social and behavioral studies needed to understand the epidemic. The committee strongly supports continued research efforts to develop better ways to refine predictions about the future course of the AIDS epidemic and to evaluate potential intervention strategies.
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Key Terms

  • sexual behavior
  • aids epidemic
  • transmission dynamics
  • immunodeficiency virus
  • human immunodeficiency

  • behavioral factors
  • future trends
  • acquired immunodeficiency
  • future course
  • drug abuse

  • sexual contacts
  • variables required
  • drug abusers
  • partners people
  • meet regularly

  • prediction based
  • qualitative data
  • produce widely
  • differing projections
  • incubation period

  • projected increase
  • minimum size
  • underlying assumptions
  • currently infected
  • plan care

  • deficiency syndrome
  • control hiv
  • phs estimated
  • continued research
  • depend heavily


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