Socioeconomic Determinants of Fertility Behavior in Developing Nations Theory and Initial Results (1982) / Chapter Skim
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2.3 Macro Hypotheses
2.3 Macro Hypotheses
Pages 51-61
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From page 51... ...
Finally, our focus on the AFB, EF, and LF structural equations provides insight into the main or additive effects of the macro variables in the determination of AFB, EF, and LF, as discussed in further detail below.
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From page 52... ...
Because macro data on socioeconomic development are relatively plentiful, it should be possible to study variability in the micro parameters by relating them to level of development. A second macro dimension relevant to the degree of transitzonality encompasses the presence, scope, and vigor of official family planning programs.
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From page 53... ...
This point is supported by Table 2.1. This table extends Table 1.1 to show the sign hypotheses for socioeconomic effects in the AFB, EF, and LF structural equations ~ conditional on the extremes of socioeconomic development and family planning program strength.
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From page 54... ...
Labeling socioeconomic development by S and family planning program strength by FP, the specification in its most general form becomes (2.1) ~jkm = nOkm + ~lkmSj + n2km(FP Id ~ n3km~s.Fp~i + Ajkm for k = 1~...,K; m = 1,2,3, where the e-coefficients are macro regression coefficients, and the \-term denotes error in the determination of the micro coefficients.5 Thus, when ~ km = Djl:, the dependent variable is the intercept of the AFB micro equation, and observations are over countries.
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From page 55... ...
The reason for this, which will become clearer below, is that one of the sign hypotheses depends intimately on the validity of the hypothesized null effect. The sign hypotheses displayed in Table 2.2 are listed separately for the intercepts and socioeconomic ef feats of the AFB , EF , and LF structural equations.
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From page 56... ...
This implies that n223 must be negative and Table 2.2 thus indicates a negative ~additive" effect of FP in the bottom panel. Macro Determinants of Micro Intercepts In considering the directionality of the effects of S and FP on the intercepts of the AFB, EF, and LF equations' we completely characterize the hypothesized macro variability of all of the micro parameters in the AFB structural equation.
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From page 57... ...
. Nevertheless, an understanding of macro variability in the micro intercepts is of critical importance for understanding the main effects of the macro variables on the micro endogenous variables.
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From page 58... ...
Since we have already hypothesized a positive effect of S on the socioeconomic determinants of AFB, we expect that the greater the AF8 mean, the greater the quantity resulting from micro socioeconomic effects that will be removed (the means of the micro socioeconomic variables should increase as socioeconomic development increases)
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From page 59... ...
the effect of S on the EF intercept should be positive. There is no strong reason to expect a relationship between the EF means and FP because family planning programs in the Third World have not been targeted at, or markets successful in slowing, early fertility.
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From page 60... ...
We have now reviewed all of the directional hypotheses about the effects of socioeconomic development and family planning program strength on macro variability in the intercepts and micro socioeconomic parameters of the AFB, EF, and LF structural equations. Essentially, this has amounted to an expansion and translation of the reasoning embodied in Table 1.1 of Chapter 1.
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From page 61... ...
In addition, older cohorts experienced first-hand the effects of the family planning programs introduced in many countries during the 1965-74 decade. Respondents aged 40-44 in 1974 were aged 30-34 in 1964 ; according to the logic underlying the decomposition of the fertility process, these women were entering the potentially discretionary stage of their reproductive life as major policy shifts were taking place at the macro level.
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