Socioeconomic Determinants of Fertility Behavior in Developing Nations Theory and Initial Results (1982) / Chapter Skim
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1.2 Overview of the Model
1.2 Overview of the Model
Pages 7-16
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From page 7... ...
In the other direction, an increase in family size can increase mortality risks, since resources must be spread over more family members (Watson et al., 19797. Our model isolates an effect of early child mortality on later fertility and an effect of early fertility on later child mortality.
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From page 8... ...
8 BLOCK BLOCK BLOCK UNLOCK RESC i WED \ \\_ is/ LF FEC At\ DUR FIGURE 1.2 Causal Diagram of Proposed Mode 1 RES WSM HED HOCC EF*
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From page 9... ...
This causal model follows usual path diagrammatic conventions (Duncan, 1975) , except for the deliberate omission of arrows indicating stochastic error terms.
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The second category of Davis-Blake intermediate fertility variables governs the chances of conception. Contraceptive usage is the most widely studied of these variables because of its major role in family planning programs.
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From page 11... ...
m e LF-LCM contemporaneous disturbance correlation should be less sensitive to these effects because older mothers are less able than younger ones to react in this way to child mortal Fertility may respond to mortality conditions in yet another way. Micro-economic models frequently assume that parental decisions about family size are made prior to the onset of fertility.
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From page 12... ...
Thus families with a predominance of boys among their early births should experience fewer child deaths ceteris Minibus. Although the model does not include a variable for sex composition per se, its hypothesized effect should be captured indirectly through potential SCB-LCM and SCG-LCM links.
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From page 13... ...
We therefore model SCB and SCG as f unctions of these early outcomes. Socioeconomic Variables Our ultimate aim in developing a comprehensive fertility model is to tap empirically the many ways in which socioeconomic status (SES)
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From page 14... ...
For example, family planning programs making cheap and effective contraceptive methods universally available, and mass media campaigns designed to provide broad exposure to alternative fertility norms may reduce socioeconomic differentials in fertility related behavior. Our analyses will allow for a range of possibilities, through a specification that includes interactions involving socioeconomic status at the micro level, and by treating the degree of interaction as a function of family planning program strength and other variables measured at the macro level.
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From page 15... ...
However, since responses to desired family size questions are quite sensitive to post hoc rationalization, this variable as usually
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From page 16... ...
It is doubtful that adding either desired family size or cost factors would much improve the predictive power of the model. If appropriate and reliable indicators were available, we would place these variables in the causal structure so that they mediated the influence of socioeconomic variables on later fertility and contraceptive use.
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