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5 Use of Modeling and Simulation in Operational Testing
Pages 33-40

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From page 33...
... Constructive models, such as JANUS and CASTFOREM, have been used for comparative evaluations of specific capabilities among candidate systems or parameter values, but not to justify with any validity those systems or value comparisons within an actual combat setting.2 Therefore an important issue must be explored: the extent to which simulations, possibly with some adjustments and enhancements, could be used to assist in developmental or operational testing to save limited test funds, enhance safety, effectively increase the sample size of a test, or perhaps permit the extrapolation of test results to untested scenarios. The goals of building simulations for training and doctrine are not necessarily compatible with the goals of building simulation models for assessing the operational effectiveness of a system.
From page 34...
... Some documents that have been particularly useful are Improving Test and Evaluation Electiveness (Defense Science Board, 1989) , a 1987 General Accounting Office report on DoD simulation (U.S.
From page 35...
... Others, however, may be adjusted specifically to improve the correspondence of simulation outputs with particular operational testing results with which they are being compared. Particularly when the number of free parameters is large in relation to the amount of available operational test data, close correspondence between a "tuned" simulation and operational results does not necessarily imply that the simulation would be a good
From page 36...
... General Accounting Office, 1988:11, 46~: In general, the efforts to validate simulation results by direct comparison to data on weapons effectiveness derived by other means are weak, and it would require substantial work to increase their credibility. Credibility would have been helped by .
From page 37...
... (1989~. Little Evidence Is Seen for Use of Statistical Methods in Simulations There are a number of ways statistical methods can be brought to bear in the design of simulation runs and the analysis of simulation outputs.
From page 38...
... Distributed interactive simulation with man-in-the-loop may have the potential to incorporate command and control at less expense than a field test. Although actual military applications to date have been limited, it is widely believed that distributed interactive simulation can contribute to effective use of simulation in the operational testing process, and widely claimed that it can improve some aspects of realism in the operational test environment.
From page 39...
... This kind of problem would rarely be discovered by means of a simulation. As another example, consider Table 5-1, which represents the mean time between operational mission failures for the command launch unit of the javelin (a man-portable anti-tank missile)
From page 40...
... We will also examine the use of distributed interactive simulation in operational testing to determine the particular application of statistics in that area. Key issues requiring further investigation because of their complexity include the proper role of simulation in operational testing, the combination of information from field tests and results from simulations, and proper use of probabilistic and statistical methodology in simulation.


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