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10 Acute Radiation Mortality in a Nuclear War
Pages 233-250

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From page 233...
... University of London, London, England OVERVIEW Estimates of radiation casualties in a nuclear war depend on assumptions made about the LDso value in humans. In the absence of direct evidence, this value has been deduced partly from animal data and partly from a few radiation accidents, many victims of which have been receiving extensive medical treatment.
From page 234...
... Although the final values are yet to be agreed upon, it is unlikely that they will differ significantly from those presented so far. Using these data, a probit of mortality versus bone marrow dose was obtained, which showed that the bone marrow LDso for the Hiroshima survey was only 154 reds (220 reds at body surface)
From page 235...
... In the United Kingdom an effective LDso of 600 reds to bone marrowdeduced mainly from the people exposed to radiation in accidents-is being used to estimate radiation casualties in a nuclear warts In Hiroshima and Nagasaki a large number of people were exposed to radiation under wartime conditions, but these data have not been used because of the alleged difficulty in separating mortalities caused by radiation from those caused by blast or heath However, recent surveys carried out in Japan in connection with the reassessment of the dosimetry for long-term effects provided an opportunity for another look at the acute effects of radiation. The World Health Organization- which carried out
From page 236...
... a study of the effects of thermonuclear wary has requested that two Japanese teams undertake such studies. These are still in progress, but the team directed by T
From page 237...
... From Masuyama's In J > 20 U) Hi: id J 10 At: fir o 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 DAYS AFTE R THE BOMB FIGURE 3 Percent mortality, in 4-day intervals, as a function of time after the Hiroshima explosion, starting from the second day.
From page 238...
... Here the time interval is 2 days instead of 4, because in small mammals 30 G Z 20 a: A a: ~10 -l o 0 1 0 20 30 40 50 60 DAYS AFTER THE BOMB FIGURE 4 Calculated percent mortality, in 4-day intervals, starting from the second day, for all victims of the Hiroshima explosion. The histogram is for the survey group (the same as in Figure 31.
From page 239...
... Another way of looking at the time distribution is to calculate the mean survival time of a population exposed to a given dose. As shown in Figure 1, at high doses the time of death depends very much on the dose, but such dependence albeit smaller also occurs in the LDso region.
From page 240...
... For the second point, on August 7, the 50 percent mortality distance of 892 meters was obtained from the 765 people who survived after the first day, and so on. The notable feature of this graph is the very steep drop after the first day, after which the 50 percent mortality distance remains practically steady and then decreases gradually (indicating a gradual increase in the LDso)
From page 241...
... The notable difference between the two lines is to be expected, if it is assumed that line B gives the mortality predominantly due to radiation and that line A represents deaths from a mixture of radiation and other causes, with the latter being predominant. A similar but more direct result is obtained by plowing the probit of mortality found in the survey group against the distance from the hypocenter.
From page 242...
... FIGURE 8 Average daily mortality rates for various periods as a function of distance from the hypocenter based on a 1946 survey in Hiroshima (data from T Ohkita9~.
From page 243...
... FIGURE 9 Line A: Data from Figure 8 for the interval from 7 to 14 days after the bomb. Line B.: The same data for the group in the Hiroshima survey.
From page 244...
... All these parameters have undergone considerable revision recently in the U.S.Japan Joint Workshop for the Reassessment of Atomic Bomb Radiation Dosimetry. The last workshop meeting, held in Pasadena, California, in March 1985, was supposed to come up with final figures, but they will not be available until the end of 1986.
From page 245...
... The greatly reduced neutron contribution resulted in a large reduction of the transmission factors for Japanese-style houses. By applying the appropriate values, one can calculate the contribution of the various components to the LDso.
From page 247...
... A smaller coefficient is to be expected when a highly homogeneous population, like the purebred strain of mice, is compared with a highly heterogeneous population, like humans. Before the LDso can be applied to an estimate of radiation casualties in a nuclear war, two more points must be considered.
From page 248...
... How many radiation casualties would result from such a low LDso? In a recent paper, Lindop et alto investigated the sensitivity of radiation casualty estimates to the assumed value of the LDso.
From page 249...
... FIGURE 14 Percent mortality versus bone marrow dose in the Hiroshima survey group.
From page 250...
... distance relationship for initial nuclear radiation from the atomic bombs Hiroshima and Nagasaki.


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