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16 Genetic Consequences of Nuclear War
Pages 337-346

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From page 337...
... On the other hand, in a great number of organisms, genetic effects of radiation have been shown to occur according to a no-threshold dose-effect curve, thus implying that effects may be found even in situations and population groups where other direct effects are small. When I tried to quantitate these effects the first time- in the working papers for the World Health Organization (WHO)
From page 338...
... u' o c, at o c, LD50 \\ Fireball \ ~ Heat and Blast Effect Radiation Dose Curve I GZ / / \ DISTANCE 1 RAD I AT ION LE THAL RAD I US H EAT AND B LAST LETHAL RAD I US FIGURE 1 Genetically effective exposure to radiation would occur mainly outside the radiation lethal area, with dose distribution as determined by the dosedistance curve.
From page 339...
... With bombs bigger than 50 kt, the blast and temperature lethal areas will to some extent cover the genetically significant irradiated survivor zone, thus leading to fewer irradiated survivors and to a lower mean radiation dose in those that do survive. With low-altitude and groundbursts, exposure to local fallout downwind from the target will lead to genetically significant doses in the survivors.
From page 340...
... On the other hand, special circumstances-such as direct hits on nuclear power plants may lead to major contaminations with long-lived radioactive isotopes, increasing the mean survivor population dose in the less contaminated areas.3 4 In those localities where the lethal dose or dose rate is already closely approached, a further increase would lead to more deaths, but, as expected, it would influence the reproducing survivor dose to a lesser extent. It seems to be a significant feature of the situation that the variation in the genetically effective dose between individuals of the three categories discussed bomb exposure, local fallout exposure, and global fallout exposure may vary within little more than 2 orders of magnitude, including mutagenic efficiency variation due to dose rate.
From page 341...
... The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) takes genetic damage seen in the first two generations to constitute one-quarter of the stochastic risk induced, following occupational exposure (age I830)
From page 342...
... and organized in collaboration with John Mulvihil1 from the National Cancer Institute may yield data on the sensitivity of man's genetic material, based on mutation rates observed in children born to surviving cancer patients treated with radiation or cytostatics.~7 POPULATIONS AND EFFECTS In view of the many uncertainties involved in estimating the genetic effects, it seems unwarranted to try to differentiate between different scenarios. However, let us again look at the three categories of exposure: direct bomb radiation, local fallout, and global fallout.
From page 343...
... Areas of heavy local fallout would, according to several scenarios, cover extensive areas and involve large populations. In my WHO paper, I suggested a total world population of 2 x 108 reproducing survivors in this category.2 With a mean genetically significant dose of 1,000 rem, but delivered at a low dose rate, the amount of genetically defective offspring would be about doubled.
From page 344...
... Some stages of embryogenesis are particularly sensitive to radiation, but in general the defects lead to spontaneous abortion and so may be regarded as a category of limited consequence.2~ 22 However, it has been shown recently in Hiroshima and Nagasaki that fetuses irradiated during the third and fourth months of development are particularly prone to brain damage, with a relatively large frequency of mentally retarded children born in this group.23 In any normally reproducing population, a small fraction of the population under 30 years of age about 1.0 percent will be pregnant with a child at this stage of development. Among the children born to survivors some 5-7 months after exposure to bomb radiation, mental retardation may thus be expected to be a dose-dependent characteristic.
From page 345...
... Geneva: World Health Organization. 5United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation.
From page 346...
... Geneva: World Health Organization. 25Oftedal, P., and A


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