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From page 607...
... , 4-5 American Physical Society, 6 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, 6 607 Antinuclear activism, 457-459, 462, 472, 476 Arab-Israeli War, 361, 488-489 Arms control studies, 4 Arms race, psychology of power in, 474-484; see also National leaders/ decision makers Atmospheric effects and responses chemically induced, 112- 114, 156, 163-164 convective cloud formation from fire plumes, 108-109, 159 environmental stresses associated with, 156 ozone layer reductions, 112-113, 156, 160-163, 320, 584 photochemical smog formation, 163-164 radioactive cloud dispersal, 169 smoke-related, 95, 110-112, 137, 146-148, 184, 584 stratospheric injection of fallout, 106, 179, 184, 195 structural modification, 143, 148, 154, 184 sulfuric acid removal, 164 uncertainties in assessments of, 137 see also Climatic impacts and responses; Nuclear winter; Tropopause; Troposphere
From page 608...
... . matures Chemicals, see Toxic chemicals/substances
From page 609...
... Helens eruption, 301 Texas City fertilizer ship fire, 266, 271, 351 Three Mile Island nuclear plant accident, 302, 303, 492-494 World War II bombing raids, 307-313 see also Fires, urban Disaster Responses disaster syndrome, 304-305 physicians, 278 postdisaster behavior, 303-307 psychopathic behavior, 305 role conflict in emergency personnel, 306, 383 scapegoat-finding, 306 see also Human behavior; Psychological processes and problems Disaster warnings effects of, 301-302 responses to, 296-297 source credibility, 299-300, 383 studies of, 297-302 timing of, 298-301 Drug abuse by military personnel, 495-500, 503-508, 510, 513-515, 584 Drugs, medical production worldwide, 371-372, 392-395 supply and post-nuclear-war demand, 363-365 E Early Warning System, failure in, 494 Economic impacts critical industries, 409 EMP damage to electronic systems, 384-385 food production, 374-375 long-term health problems, 386-387 monetary systems, 385-386, 388, 401-402, 405-406 pharmaceutical industry, 392-395 recovery prospects, 387-388, 403-404 reliability of projections, 388 trading patterns, 388, 402-403 treatment of surviving capital, 403, 406 warnings of war, 382-383 see also Energy impacts Ecosystems effects of atmospheric oxidants on, 164;
From page 610...
... crisis relocation strategy, 382
From page 611...
... INDEX CRP-2B scenario of massive nuclear war, 350-366, 383-384, 389-392, 396, 398, 401, 405, 561 population distributions around nuclear targets, 216 Fire gases amounts generated by superf~res, 41-43 carbon dioxide, 41-44, 46, 48 carbon monoxide, 41-43, 45, 47-48, 56, 58 effects on ecosystems, 124-125 hydrogen cyanide, 41-43 physiological effects of, 44-46, 48, 50 sulfur dioxide, 41-43, 48, 50 see also Nitrogen oxides Fires, urban characteristics of, 80-86 development and spread of, 85-86 Dresden, Germany, 34, 75, 83, 87, 94 Hamburg, Germany, 38, 44, 51-58, 75-77, 87, 94, 309 history of, 73-80 London incendiary raids, 55 modeling of, 81-85 nuclear-nonnuclear contrasted, 81-82; see also Disaster analogies range of, 73 summary of experience on, 81 Tokyo, Japan, incendiary raids, 51, 53, 75 see also Superf~res Firestorms, see Superf~res Food contamination of, 164 grain stores and crops, 123, 127- 130, 132, 194, 375-376, 558 interdependence of countries for, 288-289, 374-375 production disruptions, 131-132, 134, 164, 284-286, 374-376 sanitation and preservation of, 287 transport disruptions, 284-285 world reserves of, 284 see also Agricultural impacts Food chain, radioactive contamination of, 188-190, 287 Foreign policymaking coping with issue complexity and inadequate information, 537-539, 544-545 crisis-induced stress impacts on, 529-545 611 efficacy of devil's advocates in, 549 groupthink, 544 minimization of impediments to information processing, 546-550 nonstress factors affecting quality of, 546 organizational behavior, 545 problems arising in, 547 small-group dynamics, 542-545, 548-549 subsystems for, 536-537 see also National leaders/decision makers Forrestal, James, 531 G Genetic effects calculation of, 341 cases of, 343 from 1 million manrem, 342 future generations, 343-344 post-nuclear-war response to, 344-345 radiation doses associated with, 338-340, 343 Geneva Conventions of 1949, 254, 255 Goldberger, Marvin, 3 Great Britain instability in military personnel, 504-505 youth perceptions of nuclear war threat in, 421 Growing seasons, 118, 126, 130, 164, 286 H Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan blast overpressure and thermal energy at, 26, 29-32, 61-64, 79 cancer incidence in survivors, 329-330 casualty management by, 269, 278 fatalities in, 51, 61-62, 65, 211, 233, 236 firestorm area in, 29, 33, 63, 77-80, 211-213 genetic effects in offspring of survivors, 341, 344 LDso radiation doses, 224-225, 234, 577 personal accounts of bombing, 309-313 radiation exposure in, 235-247, 339 structural damage in, 77-79 teratogenic effects in offspring of survivors, 344 weapon yield at, 210, 309 Hope children's sources of, 436 distinction between denial and, 471
From page 612...
... , 260-261 supply and post-nuclear-war demand, 263, 355, 357-358, 367-369, 561 Medical organizations active in nuclear war prevention, 3 Medical resources blood and blood products, 358-362, 365, 368-370 casualty ratio, 262 equipment and supplies, 275, 353, 356, 364, 368, 372-374 personnel, 271-274, 354-357, 367-369, 386 supply vs. post-nuclear-war demand, 350-374, 386, 392-395, 584 see also Drugs, medical Medical transport conventional wars, 256-261 nuclear war, 274-275, 354-366 Medical treatment conventional wars, 257-260 nuclear war, 274-275 radiation victims, 235 time constraints on, 262, 353-354 Medical/physiological effects anoxia, 45-46 carbon dioxide exposure, 44-47
From page 613...
... INDEX carbon monoxide exposure, 45, 47, 56, 58 heat exposure, 44-45, 57 hematopoietic syndrome, 234, 319 hypovolemia, 277 malnutrition, 132, 249-250, 287, 322-323 radiation exposure, 201-202, 224-225; see also Radiation sickness of smoke and soot, 48 starvation, 287-288, 322, 558, 572 toxic chemical exposure, 157-160 tuberculosis, 323 ultraviolets radiation increases, 163, 320 see also Blast effects; Burns; Genetic effects; Immune system suppression; Injuries/number of injured Military personnel, instability effects of crisis-induced stress, 493-494, 562 psychiatric problems, 499-501, 506, 512-515, 584 substance abuse, 495-500, 503-508, 510, 513-515, 584 see also Nuclear weapons handling; Personnel Reliability Program Models/modeling biases in, 178 cancer fatalities, 333 casualties from nuclear attacks, 16-17; see also Casualties; Scaling, blast; Scenarios/reference cases conflagration, 17, 67-68, 81-85, 208, 212-214, 270-271 cookie cutter, 17, 60, 67-68 ecological and agricultural systems, 119, 128-130, 568, 573 fallout casualties, 223-227 fallout from escalating nuclear exchange, 176-179, 189-190 fission products injected into atmosphere, 181 global climate, 144, 568-569 GLODEP2, 179-182, 184-186, 188, 197 GRANTOUR, 182, 184-186, 199 influence of casualty rules on, 60, 208 KDFOC2, 170, 189 local fallout from multiple detonations, 174-176 local fallout from single burst, 170-174 military targets, 174 613 nuclear winter, 144, 575-576 overpressure, see Scaling, blast postwar economic recovery, 388-389 radiation casualties, 248 radiative and climatic effects of smoke injection, 98 smoke-induced atmospheric perturbations, 110, 139-141, 143-153 superfire environments, 86-94 superfire fatalities, 59-66 toxic gas concentrations in superfires, 41-42 uncertainties, 114, 137, 168, 178-179, 190, 199-200, 556-557, 566-573 urban fires, 81-85 WSEG-10, 223-224 Mortality rates as a function of time after detonation, 236-240, 243 cancer victims, 330-331, 333 hospitalized casualties, 278, 261 injured in urban nuclear attacks, 273, 277 radiation-related, 224, 233-250, 278 relative to distance from ground zero, 233, 240-246, 248 treatment delays and, 270 see also Fatalities Mutagens, 157 Mutations, 343-344; see also Genetic effects N Nagasaki, see Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan Nasser, G., 541 National Academy of Sciences, 3-4 National leaders/decision makers burdens imposed on, by military forces, 485 conceptual assimilation of nuclear and conventional weapons by, 479-480 coping patterns of, 532-533, 546-548 crisis impact on managerial capacities and performance of, 487-489, 529-550, 534-535, 539-542, 584 demonstration of resolve by, 480-481 ego defense mechanisms, 533 emotional instigators of violence in, 476-477 faith in weaponry, 478-479
From page 614...
... , 254 Nuclear detonations airbursts, 18-28, 106, 385; see also Electromagnetic pulse (EMP) blast energy distribution from, 26-27, 105, 274 crater formation, 384 fireball formation and characteristics, 18-24, 28, 83-84, 106 height-of-burst implications, 19, 30, 61, 77, 82, 105, 200 incendiary effects of, 17-28, 105-106; see also Superfires on missile silos, 223 multiburst damages, 82 mushroom cloud formation, 21, 24 peak energy output from, 15, 30, 79 over rural targets, 97 shock wave development, 19-27, 30-31, 265 in space, 106 structural damage from, 19, 22-28, 31-33, 59, 77-79, 274, 384 surface burst damage, 82-83, 106, 108, INDEX 136; see also Fallout thermal energy distribution from, 27, 30, 83-85, 105 winds accompanying, 19, 22 see also Models/modeling; Scenarios/ reference cases Nuclear fuel cycle facilities adult perceptions of risk from, 468 fallout from attacks on, 195-198, 340 potential sources of fallout, 191-192, 194 radiological doses from attacks on, 115, 179, 190-193 reactor core integrity, 191-192 Three Mile Island accident, 302, 303, 492-494 Nuclear targets number of, 310 populations around, 216, 218 strategic, in U.S., 216, 218, 221-222 see also Scenarios/reference cases Nuclear terrorism, U.S.-Soviet agreement on, 7 Nuclear war characteristics of the issue of, 427-428 direct and indirect effects contrasted, 117-118 images and risk perceptions, see Attitudes and perceptions inadvertent, 530, 585; see also Nuclear weapons handling need for youth education on, 429-431, 563 population distributions after, 132- 134 prevention activities, 431-432, 436 risks to noncombatants, 288-289, 370-375, 558 scientific community's role in preventing, 1-11 socioeconomic structure after, 285 stresses induced by, 118-119 toxic environments following, 155-165 warnings of, 382-383 Nuclear weapons arsenals, 106, 161, 216, 221, 486, 520-524 command and control of, 479, 485-489; see also Nuclear weapons handling ICBMs, 176-177, 220, 221, 230, 504, 507, 520, 523 Minuteman missiles, 222, 520
From page 615...
... military, 498-499, 501 in underground bases, 491-492 Nuclear weapons yield EMP effects relative to, 385 fatality estimates relative to, 67 mass fire generation and, 38, 94 radiation dose relative to, 182-183 thermal and blast effects relative to, 26 27, 38, 105 Nuclear winter absorption optical depth leading to, 102 103 contribution of plastics to, 98-103 duration of, 557 physical mechanism, 97, 141-142, 156 prevention of photochemical smog formation by, 164 reliability of studies of, 556-557, 566-573 smoke contribution to, 97 studies of, 97, 560-561 support for theory, 98 615 o Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) airburst casualty estimates, 61-64, 210 damage estimates, 384-385 Detroit, Michigan, nuclear attack scenario, 366-370 review of DOD casualty estimates, 220 Ozone depletion, 112-113, 156, 160-163, 320, 584 p Panofsky, Wolfgang, 3 Personnel Reliability Program decertifications by, 510, 512-517 positions under jurisdiction of, 509 qualifying standards for, 509 screening procedure, 509-510 Soviet counterpart of, 510-511 strengthening of, 515, 517-519 violations of security rules of, 512 weaknesses of, 511-515 Pharmaceutical production, see Drugs, medical Physicians for Social Responsibility (PSR)
From page 616...
... 616 postdisaster psychopathic behavior, 305 Psychological processes and problems of general public, see Attitudes and perceptions; Disaster responses; Human behavior; Stress, psychological hazard perceptions, 291-292, 296, 383; see also Attitudes and perceptions instability in military personnel, 490-519; see also Nuclear weapons handling leadership-related, see Foreign policymaking; National leaders/decision makers; Stress, crisis-induced mental health in leaders, 531-532 of nuclear arms race, see Arms race; Foreign policymaking; National leaders/ decision makers substance abuse by military personnel, 495-500, 503-508, 513-515, 584 theory of bounded rationality, 303 see also Denial; Disaster responses Psychosocial perceptions, see Attitudes and perceptions Psychosocial studies adult beliefs, feelings, and actions regarding nuclear war, 141-462 children's and adolescents' perceptions of nuclear war threat, 413-443 international, 418-422 methodological issues, 424-427, 437-439 qualitative, 422-424 questionnaires, 417-422, 435-443 systematic sampling for, 415-417 see also Attitudes and perceptions; Research and studies on nuclear war Pugwash, activities of, 5 Pyrotoxins, see Fire gases; Toxic chemicals/ substances R Rabin, I., 541 Radiation, beta, effects of, 115, 168, 179 Radiation, gamma biological repair of damage from, 199, 200, 224, 226 cancer incidence from, 202, 225-226, 228, 329-335 decay of, 168- 169 dose projections, 114- 115, 172- 174 factors influencing amounts dispersed, 168, 172 INDEX genetic effects of, 337-344 hematological effects of, 224 human sensitivity to, 224-225 immune system impairment by, 318-319 insect resistance to, 286, 559-560 prodromal effects, see Radiation sickness teratogenic effects of, 344 see also Fallout Radiation, neutron fallout estimates, 172-173 LDso relative to ground zero, 247 Radiation, ultraviolet-B cancer incidence from, 320 ecosystem impacts, 124-125, 163, 286 effect on plastics, 100 increases in, 113, 124-125, 130, 136, 156, 162-163, 573, 584 Radiation doses from attacks on nuclear power plants, 196-197 bases for, 247 bone marrow, 248 buildup of, 181 calculation of, from single bursts, 170172 cancer incidence and, 331-332 doubling method for calculating, 341 genetically significant, 337-340, 343 global human population, 181, 190, 196 immunosuppression-related, 319 ingestion and inhalation, 168, 179, 187190 internal total body dose, 189 LDso, 200, 224-225, 233-235, 239-241, 245, 247-250, 319, 559, 577, 583 leukemia-related, 330 organ, 247 peak equivalent residual, 224 sensitivity to warhead yield, 182-183 in shelters, 247; see also Radiation protection factors to survivors, 332, 335, 338-340 total cumulative external, 339-340 whole-body, from major exchange, 181, 198-199 Radiation protection factors, 173-174, 189, 200-201, 223-224, 226, 248-249 Radiation sickness medical supply needs, 362 mortality rate, 224
From page 617...
... report, 96, 104-135, 168, 176, 187, 617 197-199, 556 Segdaev, R.Z., 6 S helters/sheltering fatalities in, 43-44, 57-58, 94 in Hiroshima, Japan, 238 protection factors provided by, 173, 189, 200-201, 223-224 in Soviet Union, 382 time necessary in, 339 Smoke amount produced by superf~res, 137-139, 144-145, 570-572 composition and properties of, 107-108, 572 contribution to nuclear winter, 97, 141 distribution end residence time, 110, 142, 145-146, 148-152 effect on global fallout, 184 injection altitudes, 97, 111, 137-139 ozone destruction by, 162 particle coagulation, 109-110 particle size, 137-138 from plastics, 101-102 precipitation scavenging of, 97, 109, 112-114, 142-143, 145-146, 158, 557 solar radiation absorption by, 97, 111 113, 145-146, 148, 151, 156 uncertainties in calculations of, 568, 570-572 Sociological impacts recovery prospects, 389-392 shifts in social order and behavior, 390-392; see also Psychological processes and problems social cohesion and morale, 308 Sorensen, Theodore, 540-541 Soviet military chain of command, 504 instability in, 501-502 nuclear weapons handling in, 504, 510511, 522-523 substance abuse in, 503-504 Soviet Union civil defense system, 382 relations with United States, 6-7 rules of sea agreement between U.S. Navy and, 7 youth perceptions of nuclear war threat in, 421-422 Stalin, J., 541
From page 618...
... , 157-158 polyvinyl chlorides (PVCs) , 50 Triage categories, 252, 263-264, 266-267 concept, 251-255, 262 ethical issues in, 252-254 in nuclear war, 263-264, 274 Tropopause definition, 82 effect on lofting of fire products, 91-93 Troposphere fallout injection into, 106, 179, 184-185, 195 photochemical smog formation in, 163-164
From page 619...
... , 329, 331, 334, 340 United States crisis relocation strategy, 382-383 defense policy, 209; see also Strategic Defense Initiative nuclear weapons policy, 219-220, 230 relations with People's Republic of China, 482 relations with Soviet Union, 6-7 rules of sea agreement between Soviet navy and, 7 youth perception of nuclear war threat in, 413-415, 422 University of California, 6 V Velikhov, E.P., 3, 6 Vietnam War, mass casualty management during, 260-261, 361 W Warnings, see Disaster warnings; Early Warning System 619 Water supplies for postattack medical uses, 369-370 radioactive contamination of, 187-188 Weapons destructive power of, 9 miniaturization of, 9 in space, studies of, 5-6 U.S. Civil War, 256 Vietnam War, 261 World War I, 259 see also Nuclear weapons Weather disruptions from smoke injections, 110-111 influences on firestorm development, 29-30; see also Climatic impacts and responses; Nuclear winter Wilson, Woodrow, 543 World Health Organization, 235 World Medical Association code of ethics for wartime physicians, 254 World War I, mass casualty management during, 252, 254, 257-259 World War II incendiary raids, 16-17, 51-59, 75-77, 83, 87-88, 94, 107 German cities burned during, 76 human response to bombing raids, 307309 Japanese cities burned during, 77 mass casualty management during, 259260; see also Casualties psychiatric discharges during, 500 y York, Herbert, 6


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