Integrated Urban Models for Simulation of Transit and Land-Use Policies Final Report (1998) / Chapter Skim
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Executive Summary
Executive Summary
Pages 1-24
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Key Definitions Travel demandforecasting models are used to predict have] pattems on a transportation network.
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Accompanying this report are GuidleZines for Implementation anct Use of integrated models. The Guidelines descnbe how- MPOs, State DOTs arid other planrung agencies can act today, in order to initiate or build upon existing integrated transportation - land-use models.
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Increased residential density does not directly "cause" reductions In auto VMT. Rather, under the right circumstances, it may attract a resident population with particular socioeconom~c charactenstics and desired activity patterns who wait make auto ownership and travel decisions that we result in increased trar~sit/walk usage, reduced VMT, etc., relative to what they might do in other urban form contexts.
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TCRP N-12 Final Report Figure ES.! Urban Form Impacts on Activity and Travel ( Anto ~ fA~ /!
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It addressed three issues, as outlined in the following sub-sections: ES.4.l What Should Integrated Models Be Able To Do? Integrated urban models should be: · Theoretically sound, based upon the determinants of the "transportation - lan]
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... Location Choice i: ~: _ I Government Policies 1 ~.1 : ~ ~ ~ ~ : | Auto Ownership Transport System ~ ~ .., ..
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has observed, however, auto ownership is an integral part of the "mobility bundle" In that it is fundamentally interconnected with residential location and work hip commuting decision-makina. Figure ES.2 illustrates four major drivers of unbars systems, some of which may be treated as exogenous or endogenous to He model: Demographics, which is the evolution of the resident population.
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, it is possible to develop and achieve the ideal integrated modeling system that was outlined in the previous section, with a concerted R&D effort. To start, a selection of existing integrated models was reviewed' in order to compare the current state-of-the-art with the ideal model.
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· All currently operational models fall short of the ideal model to varying extents.
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Similarly, the columns in Figure ES.3 represent different levels of travel demand modeling capability, of which four are explicitly shovel: T . No transit or mode split model.
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. :3~, a.~~~.~ ' ' ·~ V r 2' ~,, ~ ~ l i _~_~g~ =~- <~ ~ Logit allocation | | | ~~$~: I 3 with price signals ~| |~1 r.-~ 1 1 1 ~"~' 1 -Ni' 1 Fullv l I | .':^~'c2cry<,~ >^^~- ~r~< Fi} st P ath ~ - 'Advanced' Path
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The arrows in Figure ES.3 depict logical ~ recommended "development paths" or trajectories for urban areas desiring to upgrade their modeling capabilities, where the base of the arrow represents a content capability (e.g.- L13T1: no land-use models no transit representation) and the tip of the arrow represents a logical incremental upgrade on that capability (e.g.3 L1'T3: no land-use model, 'best practice' travel demand model)
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or Ll, T2) capabilities is recommended first towards improvements In travel demand modeling (T3)
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Specificity, the conference made seven recorrunendations for improving existing models. Each of these recommendations applies generally to Me achievement of the six incremental capability levels, as follows (adapted from S hunk et al.
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in part, to address two common barriers to Me more widespread use of integrated models: the lack of in-house resources (i.e., insufficient expertise and money to implement a model) , and the lack of well documented 'success stories which can encourage agencies to proceed win the modeling effort and can provide practical references.
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TCRP H-12 Anal Report Figure ES.4 Elements of R&D Pro ram for Integrated Urban Models ..
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development. The inevitable result is that we make assumptions very early in the model design process about what modeling methods to use (usually Me "mea and true")
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· Development of various simple tools and procedures for use in situations in which formal integrated urban models are not available (e.g.. small urban areas, or as an interim measure in larger urban areas that currently lack an integrated urban modeling capability)
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and practice (e.g., an overviewof current and emerging integrated urban modeling practice, the application of integrated models to practical situations, etc.~. Development of "best practices " manuals, case study reports and other aids for selflea~nin~ and reference.
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It also would also provide a central contact point for the proposed users group. Information contained within the web site could include: all reports arid over documentation generated by the R&D program described above all manuals and other training materials; documentation of existing models; and literature reviews, annotated bibliographies, etc.
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However, we propose that a separate technical management body be established, under the direction of the administrative / budgetary management body, with responsibility for the following: the independent peer review panels, which would oversee the case studies (see Section ES.6.1) , technical coordination and specification of all aspects of the R&D program, including: development of technical specifications for each activity, development of ~goodness-of-fit' criteria for each activity; - XX1
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pane! for the case studies and the technical management function could be one and the same.
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We believe the recommended budget is appropriate to sustain and move forward the recommended R&D program towards the development of practical tools. The proposed expenditure fillly complements TRANSIMS and the other TMIP tracks' thereby moving the TMIP picture to completion.
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