The Changing Nature of Work Implications for Occupational Analysis (1999) / Chapter Skim
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2 The External Contexts of Work
2 The External Contexts of Work
Pages 30-72
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From page 30... ...
Occupational analysts and other decision makers who influence how work is structured need to systematically take into account the full range of factors affecting work structures and the consequences of their actions for the full range of stakeholders involved. How decision makers respond to changing markets, technologies, and demographics, the human resource policies and systems employed in organizations, and the work structures and outcomes they produce for organizations, individuals, and society are all interdependent.
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From page 31... ...
, accelerated domestic competition among service providers, and the mobility of information technologies coupled with international deregulation in services led to higher international competition in services (Office of Technology Assessment, 1987; McKinsey Global Institute, 1992~. Deregulation in service industries has led to an influx of new entrants that have lower cost structures because they: (1)
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From page 32... ...
Those with the most scarce skills and capabilities realized increasing returns to these attributes, and those with fewer and more easily replaced skills were affected most by pressures to hold down wages and labor costs. Product Innovation, Variety, Customization, and Speed-to-Market Along with increased price competition, markets have changed in ways that require increased capacity and speed in developing and introducing new and more varied products.
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From page 33... ...
In sum, increased change and variability in product content is associated with new forms of work organization as well as new and more rapidly changing skill requirements of jobs. These changes have profound implications for our occupational classification systems and undermine the extent to which they map the reality of work.
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From page 34... ...
For example, the 1980s wave of hostile takeovers, mergers and acquisitions, and leveraged buyouts created pressures on American companies to refocus their resources on their "core competencies" and to sell or close business units deemed nonessential to the company's main product line or service activity. Deregulation of financial markets, the growth of mutual funds, and the increased leverage of institutional investors put pressure on top management and led to new activism among members of corporate boards of directors leading to the replacement of chief executive officers in a number of large and highly visible companies such as IBM, Eastman Kodak, and General Motors.
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From page 35... ...
But the responses to uncertainty are likely to vary significantly across industries and contexts. At a minimum, however, rising environmental uncertainty is likely to be associated with greater variety in experimentation with organizational forms and greater instability in the content of work, suggesting greater challenges for the occupational classification system to accurately mirror the reality of work.
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From page 36... ...
But incremental technological changes are unlikely to trigger broad shifts in an occupational structure because they build on, and hence leave unchallenged, existing technological regimes. Broadscale occupational shifts usually require a change in the technical infrastructure.
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From page 37... ...
According to Braverman, by encoding production plans in computer programs, digital technologies enable management to transfer conceptual
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From page 38... ...
generally envision a bifurcation of the occupational structure along lines of skill: an increase in both high-skilled and low-skilled work and a gradual elimination of work that falls in between. Advocates of the mixed change hypothesis tend to see little net change in overall levels of skill, because forces for deskilling and upgrading cancel each other when aggregated.
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From page 39... ...
Furthermore, the SCELI data clearly show that upgrading was associated with the use of "automated or computerized equipment" (Gallie, 1994:63~. The data show that 39 percent of the respondents reported using digital technologies.
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From page 40... ...
Moreover, this debate also fails to do justice to the interactive effects technology and work organization have on skill requirements. We have more to say about this in Chapter 4 on the content of work, especially when we review the evidence of the different approaches to technological change and their effects on performance in the automobile industry (Shimada and MacDuffie, 1987; MacDuffie, 1996~.
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From page 41... ...
There is no claim that demographic changes, in and of themselves, directly lead occupational classifications to become outmoded. More likely, there are several ways in which demographic changes indirectly shape the occupational structure and occupational classification systems and analysis, and hence merit attention.
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From page 42... ...
population and the workforce (based on data from the Current Population Surveys and the U.S. Bureau of the Census)
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From page 43... ...
More families and households now are likely to have both spouses working, or the only adult in the family or household working. Women and Mothers in the Workforce Between 1890 and the mid-19OOs, the participation rate of women in the labor force increased from 1 in 5 to 3 in 5 (Monthly Labor Review, 1997:61; Sweet, 1973~.
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From page 44... ...
44 \ l / ~/ l \ ~uea~ad l l l l o o o o ~7 ~eo c~ ~uea~ad ~7 _a, a, _ a, a, ~7 oo a, o oo a, ~.
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From page 45... ...
The rising educational attainment of the workforce is apparent in recent data. Between 1970 and 1995, the fraction of the workforce with less than a high school diploma declined sharply.
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From page 46... ...
For men born at the turn of the century, nearly all of their nonwork lives occurred prior to entry into the labor force, with approximately 32 years of worklife and 16 years of nonwork. By 1980, the last year for which methodologically sound estimates exist, men had added about seven years to their worklife expectancy, a small decline from the peak in 1950, after which retire 2An earlier version of this argument and the data were presented in Spenner (1988~.
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From page 47... ...
The best available estimates suggest that the length of the work week declined from about 62 hours per week in 1880 to about 42 hours a
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From page 48... ...
Conventional survey methodology, as used in the Current Population Survey, shows considerable stability in the average hours worked per week over the past 20 years, with men averaging about 41 hours and women about 35 hours per week in the mid-199Os (Rones et al., 1997~. In contrast, some ethnographic studies (Hochschild, 1997)
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From page 49... ...
. Another relevant dataset is the WorkTrends_ survey, conducted annually since 1984 by Gantz Wiley Research of Minneapolis.
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From page 50... ...
" As Table 2.2 shows, 69 percent of Americans in 1973 said they would continue to work. In TABLE 2.2 Trencls in Work Centrality in the Unitecl States, 1973-1996 General Social Survey Year % of Americans Saying They Wouicl Continue to Work 1 973 1974 1 976 1 977 1 980 1982 1984 1 985 1 987 1 988 1 989 1 990 1 991 1 993 1994 1 996 69.1 64.8 69.0 70.0 76.9 72.3 76.0 69.5 75.4 71.0 72.2 72.7 66.9 69.0 65.8 68.0
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From page 51... ...
. Work Values Trends in work values were assessed in the General Social Survey by asking respondents the following questions: "Would you please look at this card and tell me which one thing on this list you would most prefer in a job?
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From page 52... ...
C 1990 2.53 2.63 2.57 2.77 2.46 1996 2.65 2.79 2.81 2.91 2.54 How do you rate yourtotal 1985 2.05 2.02 2.04 2.00 2.22 benefits program? C 1990 2.19 2.04 2.26 2.32 2.33 1996 2.27 2.15 2.41 2.42 2.41 How do you rateyour 1985 2.13 2.14 2.24 2.09 2.43 company in providing job 1990 2.28 2.27 2.45 2.20 2.52 security for people like 1996 2.70 2.69 2.71 2.71 3.04 yourself?
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From page 53... ...
THE EXTERNAL CONTEXTS OF WORK 53 Managers and Service Crafts Operatives Laborers Technical Professionals Executives R2 1.92 1.82 1.95 2.49 2.44 2.40 2.21 2.03 2.10 2.51 2.41 2.33 2.80 2.77 2.91 2.00 2.32 2.42 2.09 2.20 2.71 1.86 1.71 1.89 2.39 2.25 2.39 2.11 1.91 2.02 2.22 2.16 2.12 2.32 2.46 2.54 2.22 2.33 2.41 2.43 2.52 3.04 2.16 1.83 1.99 2.58 2.30 2.42 2.33 2.22 2.22 2.68 2.23 2.30 2.41 2.39 2.53 2.25 2.29 2.39 2.67 2.32 2.85 2.31 2.29 2.26 2.54 2.54 2.42 2.66 2.51 2.48 3.05 2.86 2.64 2.44 2.57 2.64 2.26 2.38 2.42 2.50 2.74 2.79 1.84 1.70 1.78 2.43 2.33 2.30 2.09 1.87 1.96 2.60 2.13 2.12 2.35 2.50 2.58 2.00 2.26 2.18 2.14 2.35 2.87 1.60 1.57 1.65 2.22 2.20 2.21 1.78 1.72 1.74 2.09 1.99 1.87 2.56 2.55 2.63 2.06 2.15 2.20 2.00 2.12 2.66 1.76 1.67 1.73 2.24 2.20 2.14 1.91 1.86 1.91 2.20 2.06 2.00 2.12 2.23 2.46 1.89 2.10 2.16 1.92 2.19 2.59 .043 .043 .032 .012 .010 .008 .054 .046 .040 .046 .041 .039 .027 .018 .015 .009 .010 .011 .026 .024 .009 2.48 2.12 2.46 2.48 2.68 2.40 2.34 .008 3.56 3.76 3.81 3.61 3.63 3.61 3.62 .004 3.60 3.79 3.70 3.68 3.57 3.69 3.62 .002 3.12 2.96 3.01 2.88 3.02 2.92 3.03 2.87 2.87 2.72 2.70 2.55 2.56 2.48 .022 .022 Continued on next page
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From page 54... ...
1985 2667 482 204 204 127 1990 4573 759 352 366 294 1996 6978 879 370 555 416 Notes: Analyses of the WorkTrends_ data presented in this table were prepared for the committee by Gantz Wiley Research of Minneapolis. Tabled values are item means, for total samples and occupational subsamples.
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From page 55... ...
. Respondents specifying occupation as "other" and respondents missing occupational codes are not included in the occupational categories in this table.
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From page 56... ...
as the job characteristic that they would prefer most in a job, followed in order by: promotions, income, job security, and hours. What is perhaps surprising is that this basic ordering, despite some minor fluctuations, has remained remarkably stable during the subsequent two decades: the rank order of these characteristics has remained virtually the same, with intrinsic aspects of work being the job characteristics most preferred by Americans in general and hours the least preferred.
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From page 57... ...
Americans tend to evaluate intrinsic aspects of work more positively than extrinsic aspects. Furthermore, trends evident in the WorkTrends_ data on skills, pay, benefits, and job security help shed light on the General Social Survey results.
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From page 58... ...
To study this question, Hamermesh calculated the proportion of total work time worked during the eight most frequently worked hours. The data indicate small changes from 1973 to 1985 and declines for both men
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From page 59... ...
Demographic Change Across Occupations The aggregate occupation distributions of the workforce for selected years since the turn of the century, as well as occupation projections for 2005, are presented in Tables 2.5 and 2.6. Data for 1900 through 1980 come from decennial censuses; data for 19851995 come from the Current Population Survey and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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From page 60... ...
b Projections refer to the "moderate" series estimates provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (i.e., under assumptions of moderate economic and industry employment projections)
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From page 61... ...
Managerial occupations, after peaking in the 1990s, are expected to decline in their relative share of the workforce, and the projection for professional specialty occupations shows steady growth in relative share over the period, which is expected to continue into the next century. Again, the demographic changes mentioned earlier may be among the underlying forces driving this change.
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From page 62... ...
Demographic Change Within Occupations To address the question of demographic change within occupations, the committee used data from the Current Population Survey for the 1983 and 1991 periods to analyze the changing demographic and skill composition of the workforce. For example, a particular workforce change over this period such as the increase in the proportion of the workforce that is black can be decomposed into across-occupation and within-occupation components.
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From page 63... ...
The second component is the sum over all occupations of the change in the proportion of blacks in the occupation, multiplied by the proportion of the workforce in that occupation (in 1991 or 1983~;3 this is the within-occupation component, since it is the change in the proportion of blacks that would have occurred had the occupational structure remained unchanged. We carry out this analysis at the level of three-digit occupations.4 Table 2.7 reports the results of this analysis for demographic changes by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and educational attainment.
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From page 64... ...
64 THE CHANGING NATURE OF WORK TABLE 2.7 Changes in Demographic Characteristics of the Workforce, Across and Within Three-Digit Occupations, 1983-2001 Proportion Proportion Total Shift in 1983 in 1991 Percent Demogri Shift Act Occupat Proportion employed Women, 16-24 -0.021 0.094 0.073 9.96 Women, 25-54 0.043 0.285 0.328 6.78 Women, 55-64 -0.004 0.046 0.042 27.58 Women, 65+ 0.001 0.012 0.013 -30.93 Men, 16-24 -0.025 0.104 0.080 11.54 Men, 25-54 0.019 0.375 0.393 21.46 Men, 55-64 -0.012 0.066 0.055 1.65 Men, 65+ -0.001 0.018 0.016 27.78 Black 0.009 0.093 0.102 -7.95 White -0.017 0.881 0.864 -2.27 Hispanic 0.023 0.052 0.075 -6.49 < 4 years of high school -0.040 0.184 0.143 26.61 4 years of high school -0.014 0.367 0.353 64.44 1-3 years of college 0.025 0.233 0.258 13.26 4+ years of college 0.030 0.216 0.246 56.18 1 or fewer years in occupation -0.023 0.191 0.168 10.09 1 or fewer years with present employer 0.033 0.230 0.263 -10.56 10 or more years in occupation 0.058 0.337 0.395 -2.11 10 or more years with present employer 0.029 .270 0.299 -1.94 Received formal training to obtain jobs 0.024 0.093 0.118 20.20 Received formal training toimprove skillsC 0.049 0.110 0.159 15.84 SOURCE: Demographic variables are from the NBER extracts from outgoing rotation group files of the CPS; training and tenure variables are from CPS training supplements. Black and white refer to race.
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From page 65... ...
THE EXTERNAL CONTEXTS OF WORK ce, 65 portion 31 Percent Demog raphic Shift Across Occupationsa Percent Demog raphic Shift Within Occupationsa Percent Demog raphic Shift Across Occupationsb Percent Demog raphic Shift Within Occupationsb 9.96 6.78 27.58 -30.93 11.54 21.46 1.65 27.78 -7.95 -2.27 -6.49 26.61 64.44 13.26 56.18 10.09 -10.56 -1 .94 20.20 15.84 90.04 93.22 72.42 1 30.93 88.46 78.49 98.35 73.02 1 07.95 1 02.27 1 06.53 73.39 35.56 86.74 43.82 89.91 110.56 102.13 1 01.97 79.80 84.16 4.18 10.28 1 8.47 -52.58 8.03 5.46 7.01 38.89 -9.45 -0.93 -10.55 22.63 69.51 8.92 56.90 13.90 -14.69 -2.35 21.39 18.02 95.86 89.72 81.53 1 52.58 92.01 94.54 92.99 61.11 1 09.45 1 00.93 110.59 77.34 30.42 91.08 43.14 86.10 114.69 102.35 1 01.36 78.61 82.00 busing as weights 1991 proportion of occupation and 1983 proportion of demographic group within occupation. CFormal training refers to company training programs, including apprenticeships.
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From page 66... ...
It arises when occupations in which a particular group is represented shrink, so that a within-occupation increase in the representation of this group is necessary simply to hold the overall representation of the group constant. 6This latter calculation must be regarded cautiously, given changes in the coding of education in the Current Population Survey between 1983 and 1993.
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From page 67... ...
The rise in both components of inequality, especially the between-group component, has been linked to increased relative demand for workers with higher educational attainment, stemming in part, perhaps, from the diffusion of computers in the workplace, but due no doubt to other factors as well, such as intensified competition in global and domestic product markets, the decline of unions, and declines in the ratio of the minimum wage to average wages in the economy. To some extent, then, rising
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From page 68... ...
Table 2.8 reports evidence on changes in wage and earnings inequality overall, within occupations, and between occupations. These changes are also calculated over the 1983 to 1991 period, which are both relatively high unemployment years, using the Current Population Survey.
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From page 69... ...
Summary of Demographic Findings There are difficulties inherent in assessing how well current occupational classification systems accommodate a changing 7 It is also possible that the use of the same relatively low nominal top-code for earnings in 1983 and 1991 depresses earnings inequality in 1991.
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From page 70... ...
In terms of both demographic characteristics and pay, workers in the occupations that we currently use to classify the workforce are increasingly diverse, making it more likely that such occupations include men and women, whites and blacks, more-tenured and less-tenured workers, and high-wage and low-wage workers. This increased diversity within occupations constitutes indirect evidence that the correspondence of current occupational classifications with the jobs that workers do is breaking down, since it is plausible that the increasing diversity of workforce characteristics and wages is refiected in increasing diversity of work.
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From page 71... ...
Others, such as changes in markets and technologies, are less easily measured or observed. However, in doing their work, those who design work structures and occupational analysis systems need a solid understanding of what is known and what existing research suggests, but cannot at this point document conclusively, about the effects of these changes.
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From page 72... ...
For our specific purposes here, the variation in wages observed within occupations is especially important, since it is another indicator of how an outcome of seemingly similar work varies more today than in the past. Whether this trend continues, remains constant, or reverses in the future is a critical question worthy of study and active consideration both for its implications for work design and occupational analysis and for the broader aspects of work and employment policy.
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