Expanding Metropolitan Highways Implications for Air Quality and Energy Use -- Special Report 245 (1995) / Chapter Skim
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-1 • Special Report 245 M MM%Wkwo Implications for Air Quality and Energy Use TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD National Research Council
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TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD 1995 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE Chairman: Lillian C Borrone, Director, Port Department, The Port Authority of New York and NcwJersey New York City Vice Chairman: James W
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Special Report 245 EXPANDING METRUP011TAN HIGHWAYS Implications for Air Quality and Energy Use Committee for Study of Impacts of Highway Capacity Improvements on Air Quality and Energy Consumption TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD National Research Council National Academy Press Washington, D.C.
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Transportation Research Board Special Report 245 Subscriber Categories IA planning and administration lB energy and environment Transportation Research Board publications are available by ordering directly from TRB. They may also be obtained on a regular basis through organizational or individual affiliation with TRB; affiliates or library subscribers are eligible for substantial discounts.
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Committee for Study of Impacts of Highway Capacity Improvements on Air Quality and Energy Consumption PAUL E PETERSON, Chairman, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts PAUL E
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ROBIN MILES-MCLEAN, Environmental Protection Agency STEPHEN BLAKE, National Cooperative Highway Research Program, Transportation Research Board Transportation Research Board Staff NANCY P HUMPHREY, Study Director
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ProtaGo The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA) raised the importance of air quality as a goal for the transportation sector alongside the more traditional goals of mobility and safety.
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vi Preface The current concern over the effects of highway building on both the environment and energy use is part of a broader debate over the appropriate direction of metropolitan development and the role of transportation in that process. Many view incremental, evolutionary change as the only realistic and politically feasible course in moving to a less polluting, more energy-efficient transportation system.
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Preface vii land use, land use modeling, and transportation and air quality planning. Panel members are drawn from universities, state government, metropolitan planning organizations, environmental organizations, and consulting firms.
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viii Preface The committee also commissioned several papers to inform its deliberations. The papers are appended to the report to make the information available to a broad audience.
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contoots Executive Summary ................................. Introduction ..................................11 Regulatory Context 13 Study Focus 21 Definition of Terms 22 Overview of Impacts 24 Assessment of Impacts 29 Organization of Report 31 2 Contribution of Motor Vehicle Transportation to Air Pollution and Energy Consumption ...........38 Transportation and Air Quality 38 Transportation and Energy Consumption 61 Modeling Air Quality and Energy Impacts 65 Summary 75 3 Traffic Flow Characteristics ......................87 Overview of Expected Impacts 87 Review of Effects on Emissions 90 Summary Assessment of Effects on Emissions and Air Quality 122
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Review of Effects on Energy Use 124 Summary Assessment and Recommendations for Improving the Knowledge Base 127 4 Travel Demand ................................138 Determinants of Metropolitan Travel Demand and Recent Travel Trends in the United States 138 Overview of Expected Impacts and Definition of Terms 143 Theoretical Understanding of Travel Choices and Impacts 149 Review of Evidence from Studies 152 Review of Impacts from Travel Demand Models 159 Summary Assessment of the State of Knowledge 162 Review of Impacts on Truck Travel 164 Recommendations for Improving the Knowledge Base 167 5 Land Use and Urban Form .......................174 Background 176 Theory Linking Transportation and Land Use 183 Empirical Evidence 185 Results from Models 190 Implications of Changes in Population Density for Travel and Emissions 194 Summary 201 Recommendations for Improving the Knowledge Base 203 6 Findings and Conclusions .......................210 Overview 211 Crosscutting Issues 213 Findings for Individual Impact Areas 215 Summary Assessment of Net Effects 224 Recommendations for Research, Modeling Improvements, and Data Collection 227 Concluding Observations 230
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Appendix A Emission and Energy Characteristics of Heavy-Duty Diesel-Powered Trucks and Buses 237 K
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EXOGutivo summary The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA) and complementary provisions of the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 (ISTEA)
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2 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS energy efficiency. Further, it was widely accepted that new highway capacity was essential to the continued economic growth and competitiveness of major metropolitan areas.
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Executive Summary 3 med to assess the reliability of forecasting tools available to planning agencies; research, modeling improvements, and data collection are recommended to help narrow the gap between regulatory requirements and analytic capabilities. International experience relevant to the study charge was considered, and alternatives to highway capacity expansion, such as "traffic calming," were examined to the extent they shed light on the effect of changes in traffic flow characteristics on vehicle emissions and energy use.
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4 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS Once EPA approves new state air quality attainment plans the conformity test changes: the emissions that result from carrying out regional transportation improvement programs and plans in nonattainment areas must not exceed target emissions caps for transportation sources established in the EPA-approved state air quality plans. The conformity test still requires a regional emissions analysis, but the criterion for comparison is less demanding: predicted regional emissions from transportation sources must be within state-determined emissions budget caps.
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Executive Summary 5 pacity and thus reducing travel time at one location in the system will affect other locations as users take advantage of the new capacity. Modifications in traffic flows and volumes on this broader system of facilities, and their effects on emissions and energy use, must be taken into account.
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6 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS as the current state of the art in modeling emissions, travel demand, and land use, the committee finds that the analytical methods in use are inadequate for addressing regulatory requirements. The accuracy implied by the interim conformity regulations issued by EPA, in particular, exceeds current modeling capabilities.
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Executive Summary 7 economy is not as sensitive as emissions to traffic flow conditions, particularly speed variation. However, energy and emissions estimates must both be linked with reliable data on the likely impacts of highway capacity additions on traffic, travel demand, and location decisions.
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8 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS emissions and energy use depends on whether the highway expansion redistributes growth that would have occurred elsewhere in the region or whether it stimulates productivity gains that result in net new growth. CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS Despite the considerable uncertainties in predicting the effects of expanding highway capacity on air quality given the current state of knowledge and modeling practice, policy makers and planners must comply with current environmental regulatory requirements and make decisions on the basis of the best available information.
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Executive Summary 9 Curtailment of all highway capacity expansion that has any potential for increasing emissions risks pitting environmental against economic concerns. In the past, when environmental goals have conflicted with economic objectives, the response has been to delay or reassess environmental regulations.
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10 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS more widely. Land use measures may reduce areawide automobile travel and emissions, but the changes are likely to occur gradually and will have more significant effects if they are implemented in conjunction with pricing measures.
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Introdution The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA) (Public Law 101549, 42 U.S.C.
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12 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS effects of additional highway capacity. They concede that adding highway capacity may initially reduce some vehicle emissions and improve fuel efficiency by smoothing traffic flows and reducing stop-and-go traffic, although the benefits may not be as significant as were once believed.
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Introduction 13 in-service vehicles. Current data on the relationship between vehicle speeds and emission levels -- critical to analyzing highway capacity projects that will change the distribution of traffic speed levels and variability of speeds -- are based on averages that mask wide variances across individual vehicle performance, roadway conditions, and driving behavior.
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14 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS Clean Air Legislation and Regulatory Requirements The harmful effects of air pollution on public health were formally recognized by the requirements of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970 (Public Law 91-604, 84 Stat.
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Introduction 15 Highway vehicle emissions (millions of short tons) 100 80 We 4C 2( C., 70 80 93 70 80 93 70 80 93 Year FIGURE 1-1 Highway vehicle emissions of selected pollutants: 1970, 1980, and 1993 (Nizich et al.
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16 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS cle travel. For example, if vehicle miles traveled (VMT)
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Introduction 17 make a required submission, or failure to implement any SIP requirement.9 Once such sanctions have been imposed -- and they must be imposed if EPA determines that the deficiency has not been corrected 18 months after being identified -- DOT can only approve highway safety projects or projects that would not increase single-vehicle automobile travel.'0 Conformity Requirements The requirements and timetables for meeting CAAA goals and sanctions for noncompliance are stringent, but not unlike mandates of earlier clean air legislation (e.g., in 1970 and 1977)
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% Change in Motor Vehicle CO Emissions a ,ts 100 80 60 20 VMT Growth °2% ±3% * 4% 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year % Change in Motor Vehicle VOC Emissions 120 20 VMT Growth 2% ±3% *
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Introduction 19 % Change in Motor Vehicle NOx Emissions 200 150 ibIs] 50 VMT Growth °2% +3% *
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20 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS sponsibilities of MPOs that are responsible for conformity analyses, and creates a new Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality Improvement Program to direct funds to projects and programs in nonattainment areas that will contribute directly to attainment of the NAAQS (FHWA 1992c, 16-17)
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Introduction 21 STUDY FOCUS The conformity requirements of the CAAA and, to a lesser extent, concern for energy use will place transportation projects -- particularly highway projects in the nation's most polluted areas -- under great scrutiny regarding their potential for stimulating automobile travel, raising emission levels, and further increasing dependence on fossil fuels. Local planning agencies, who are responsible for programming highway projects in urban areas and certifying their positive or neutral effects on air quality, are expected to have the analytic and modeling capabilities to forecast project impacts.
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22 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS DEFINITION OF TERMS Highway capacity projects are defined broadly in this study (see accompanying text box)
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Introduction 23 ILLUSTRATIVE MEASURES TO ADD HIGHWAY CAPACITY AND IMPROVE TRAFFIC FLOW New Highways -- New freeways or expressways -- New toll roads -- New arterial streets -- New local streets -- Bypass of an existing route Reconstruction and Major Widening of Existing Highways -- New lanes on existing freeways -- New lanes on existing arterials -- High-occupancy-vehicle (HOV) or express bus lanes added to freeways or arterials -- New lanes on existing freeways or arterials with variable tolls by time of day (congestion pricing)
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24 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS ranges in traffic density and are related to qualitative measures, including speed and travel time, freedom to maneuver, traffic interruptions, motorist comfort and convenience, and safety (TRB 1992, 1-3)
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Introduction 25 LEVELS OF SERVICE Level-of-Service A -- free flow. Drivers have freedom to select desired speeds, and ability to maneuver within the traffic stream is extremely high.
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Historical Development Patterns Land Use and Zoning Policies Availability of Distribution of Land Residences and - Businesses in the Region Demographic and Income Characteristics Regional Economic Conditions Cost & Availability of Transportation Travel Demand Highway Capacity Addition Traffic Flows Highway- I Energy Use related Emissions Other Emission Sources Regional Air Quality Meteorological Conditions FIGURE 1-3 Overview of initial and longer-term impacts of highway capacity additions and their effects on emissions, air quality, and energy use.
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Introduction 27 sources of emissions, interact with vehicle emissions to affect regional air quality. The primary objective of this study is to examine how an increase in the supply of highway facilities affects each of these factors (Figure 1-3)
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28 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS generated by these changes, are likely to take place over a period of years or even decades. Assessing the net effects of highway capacity projects on emissions and energy use depends on the length of time over which impacts are analyzed and how the flow of future effects is valued (i.e., discounted back to the present)
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Introduction 29 The effects of not adding highway capacity also must be considered in any assessment of net effects on highway emissions and energy use. Is there sufficient capacity in the existing highway network for travelers to change routes and times of travel without significantly adding to highway congestion levels and thereby increasing emissions and energy use?
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30 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS ity and MTC's capacity to model and analyze these impacts. Court testimony by experts provides a good summary of the key arguments put forward by local planners and modelers, environmental groups, theoreticians, and practitioners concerning the effect on air quality of increased highway capacity.
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Introduction 31 new highway capacity should not induce new travel at levels that would overwhelm initial emissions and energy benefits. Moreover, they said, there is no empirical support for the proposition that highway capacity additions in regions that are already substantially developed make a measurable difference in overall levels of population or employment growth.
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32 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS energy consumption are summarized, highlighting what is known, what is knowable, and what is not, and conclusions are drawn about the current focus and requirements of the CAAA. NOTES Catalytic converters, which control for CO, VOC, and NO., emissions, were introduced in 1978, and carbon canisters, which control hydro- carbon, or VOC, emissions from the fuel system that occur while the car is in operation or while parked by adsorbing the vapors, have been in use since 1975 (NRC 1992, 70)
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Introduction 33 to improve transit, support ridesharing, and encourage employer-based trip reduction programs (FHWA 1992a, 3-4)
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34 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS have already brought suit against EPA and DOT to force issuance of various regulations associated with the legislation. For example, among other provisions, metropolitan transportation plans must cover a period of at least 20 years, contain all regionally significant projects, consider the likely effect of transportation policy decisions on land use and development, and, for nonattainment or maintenance areas, contain only conforming projects (Federal Register 1993c)
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Introduction 35 the Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Berkeley (U.S. District Court 1991a)
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Introduction 37 U.S. District Court for the District of Northern California.
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Contri ution of Motor vChiGIC Transportation to Air Pollution and Incroy Consumption Motor vehicles run on fossil fuels, emitting pollutants that are a major cause of poor air quality in metropolitan areas and consuming a large fraction of the nation's petroleum resources. In this chapter, the impacts of motor vehicle transportation on air quality and energy consumption are described and the models that are commonly used to analyze these impacts are introduced.
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Contribution of Motor Vehicle Transportation to Air Pollution 39 1993, 2) .' Pollutants from motor vehicle transport, the focus of this study, are commonly referred to as mobile source emissions.
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40 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) in Effect in 1991 (Curran et at.
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TABLE 2-1 Transportation Contribution to Emissions of Major Air Pollutants in the United States, 1992 (Millions of Short Tons) (Nizich et al.
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42 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS system [mainly volatile organic compounds (VOCs)
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Air/fuel ratio 20 17 15 14 13 12 Lean Stoichiometric Rich Ic - I - NQ - I II voc 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 Fuel/air equivalence ratio FIGURE 2-1 Variation of CO, VOC, and NO,, concentration in the exhaust of a conventional sparkignition engine with fuel/air equivalence ratio. Adapted fromJ.
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44 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS gested roadways and at other locations where traffic densities are high. These concentrations are often referred to as CO hot spots.
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Contribution of Motor Vehicle Transportation to Air Pollution 45 processes that produce ozone (Horowitz 1982, 77)
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Percent of Emissions for Each Vehicle Type 100 80 40 Ut Iu1 rei 46 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS 01 co voc NOx PM-10 S02 Automobiles Heavy Trucks FIGURE 2-2 Comparison of national emission estimates (measured in short tons) for gasoline-powered, light-duty automobiles and diesel-powered heavy-duty vehicles (Nizich et al.
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Contribution of Motor Vehicle Transportation to Air Pollution 47 have not been used with diesel engines because of particulates and concentrated sulfur gases in the exhaust gas, which could clog or deactivate the catalyst (Guensler et al. 1991, Appendix A)
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48 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS VOCs. They include running losses, which occur when the vehicle is operating in a hot stabilized mode; hot soak emissions, which result from fuel evaporation from the still-hot engine at the end of a trip; and diurnal emissions, which result from evaporation of fuel from the gasoline tank whether the vehicle is driven or not (Sierra Research 1993, 19, 20)
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4 2 Contribution of Motor Vehicle Transportation to Air Pollution 49 Start Running Stop Diurnal Motor Vehicle Operating Modes FIGURE 2-3 Sources of VOC emissions by type for a prototypical trip (Outwater and Loudon 1994, 17)
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50 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS Grams Per Mile 60 50 MOBILE5a ± EMFAC7F 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Average Trip Speed (mph) FIGURE 2-4 Comparison of MOBILE5a and EMFAC7F emission factors for carbon monoxide as a function of average trip speed, 1990 fleet average for light-duty gasoline vehicles (data from Sierra Research, June 1994)
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Contribution of Motor Vehicle Transportation to Air Pollution 51 Grams Per Mile 5' 4 3 2 1 -- - - - - - - - - I MOBILE5a ±EMFAC7F 0' 05101520253035404550556065 Average Trip Speed (mph) FIGURE 2-5 Comparison of MOBILEa and EMFAC7F emission factors for volatile organic compounds as a function of average trip speed, 1990 fleet average for light-duty gasoline vehicles (data from Sierra Research, June 1994)
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52 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS Grams Per Mile 3 2.5 1.5 - MOBILE5a ±EMFAC7F O 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Average Trip Speed (mph) FIGURE 2-6 Comparison of MOBILE5A and EMFAC7F emission factors for oxides of nitrogen as a function of average trip speed, 1990 fleet average for light-duty gasoline vehicles (data from Sierra Research, June 1994)
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Contribution of Motor Vehicle Transportation to Air Pollution 53 Grams Per Mile 50 40 - -- - - - - - - I 20 10 I MOBILE5a ±EMFAC7F 0' 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Average Trip Speed (mph) FIGURE 2-7 Comparison of MOBILE5a and EMFAC7F emission factors for carbon monoxide as a function of average trip speed, 1990 fleet average for heavy-duty diesel vehicles (data from Sierra Research, June 1994)
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54 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS Grams Per Mile 10 MOBILE5a ±EMFAC7F O 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Average Trip Speed (mph) FIGURE 2-8 Comparison of MOBILE5a and EMFAC7F emission factors for volatile organic compounds as a function of average trip speed, 1990 fleet average for heavy-duty diesel vehicles (data from Sierra Research, June 1994)
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Contribution of Motor Vehicle Transportation to Air Pollution 55 Grams Per Mile 40 10 A MOBILE5a ±EMFAC7F 'I 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Average Trip Speed (mph) FIGURE 2-9 Comparison of MOBILE5a and EMFAC7F emission factors for oxides of nitrogen as a function of average trip speed, 1990 fleet average for heavy-duty diesel vehicles (data from Sierra Pesearch, June 1994)
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Driver B, from downtown 80 60 CL I 40 20 Oil_Aft - If I__s 0 200 400 600 800 seconds Overall CO emissions 2.36 gImi Line plot represents speed (left a)
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Driver B, from downtown, drive no.
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58 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS Highway-Related Factors The physical characteristics of the highway network itself can affect emission levels. The presence of highways with long grades, freeway ramps, signalized intersections, major arterials with numerous driveways and significant volumes of traffic entering the traffic flow, and rough pavement are all network conditions that can increase emission levels primarily because of engine enrichment from accelerations as described above (Meyer et al.
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Driver B, from downtown, 02 sensor disconnected, drive no.
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60 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS emission levels (Greco 1985 in Johnson 1988, 50-5 1)
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Contribution of Motor Vehicle Transportation to Air Pollution 61 sion rates the higher the maximum temperature (Sierra Research 1993, 125) .23 Translating Emissions into Air Quality Examining the changes in vehicle emissions that will result from highway capacity additions is only the first step in understanding how these emissions are likely to be dispersed in the atmosphere and affect the air quality of a metropolitan area.
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62 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS Energy and the Environment In addition to energy dependence, concerns about global warming have stimulated interest in improving motor vehicle fuel efficiency. Global warming occurs from the emission of carbon dioxide (CO,)
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Contribution of Motor Vehicle Transportation to Air Pollution 63 Miles Per Gallon 35 Cruise Speed + Average Trip Speed 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Miles Per Hour FIGURE 2-13 Fuel economy as a function of cruise speed (Davis 1994, 3-56) and average trip speed (An and Ross 1993b, 76)
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64 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIHWAYS types, locations, and traffic conditions (An and Ross 1993b, 76)
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Contribution of Motor Vehicle Transportation to Air Pollution 65 gine and the latter from increased rolling resistance and aerodynamic drag (Murrell 1980, 119, 121)
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66 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS as well as recommendations for improvements in practice, including research, are included in each of the following three chapters. Introduction to Modeling Requirements and Approaches Modeling the effects of additions to highway capacity on air quality and energy use requires a chain of different models -- from land use and travel demand models used to generate trip and traffic volume data to emission, dispersion, and energy models used to estimate the impacts of changes in travel activity on emission levels, regional air quality, and energy use, respectively (Figure 2-14)
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il Regional Growth Models 11 Population and Employment Forecasts Land Use Models Allocation of Population and Employment Highway Travel Demand Models Capacity > and Addition I I Traffic Simulation Models Traffic Volumes and Vehicle Activity Levels Emissions Models II II Energy Models Vehicle Emissions I I Energy Consumption Dispersion/Photochemical Models I Pollutant Concentrations I FIGURE 2-14 Modeling chain for estimating impacts of changes in travel activity on emissions and pollutant concentrations and energy use (adapted from DeCorla-Souza 1993a, 1)
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68 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS regions in the United States (Harvey and Deakin 1993, 3-14-3-15)
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Contribution of Motor Vehicle Transportation to Air Pollution 69 Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Equilibration \1/ Trip Assignment Output: Vehicle Volumes Transit Passenger Volumes FIGURE 2-15 Four-step travel demand process (DeCorla-Souza 1993b, 1)
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70 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS A primary limitation of current travel demand modeling practice is the lack of integration with land use models. With few exceptions33 the models do not provide feedback ioops so that analysts can examine the long-term impact of changes in the transportation network and network performance on travel demand and land use patterns and the trips generated by these effects.
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Contribution of Motor Vehicle Transportation to Air Pollution 71 analyses of the impacts of traffic flow improvements on roadway and vehicle performance, they are not well equipped to make similarly sophisticated assessments of changes in traffic volumes that will accompany these measures (Horowitz 1982, 212)
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72 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS Vehicle Type Average Speed Temperature Mode FEmi7ssio.s MOBILE Vehicle Activity or oVMT EMFAC o Trips .1. o V}IT Emission Factor FIGURE 2-16 Emission modeling process (DeCorla-Souza 1993a, 1)
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Contribution of Motor Vehicle Transportation to Air Pollution 73 tors for emissions of heavy-duty diesel vehicles, which are embodied in the MOBILE model, are based on chassis dynamometer testing of 22 1979-vintage heavy-duty diesel trucks conducted in the early 1980s (see Appendix A)
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74 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS tors generated from emission models, and meteorological conditions (O'Connor et al.
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Contribution of Motor Vehicle Transportation to Air Pollution 75 Limitations of Current Modeling Practice The key limitations of current models can be summarized under three broad categories. More in-depth discussion, particularly of the uncertainties of the models, can be found in the following chapters.
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76 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS Gasoline-powered passenger vehicles -- the most common vehicle on the road -- are the primary source of CO highway vehicle emissions and contributors to the ozone precursor emissions from highway vehicles (VOCs and NOR)
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Contribution of Motor Vehicle Transportation to Air Pollution 77 travel and driving behavior, in particular, is critical to improved modeling of the travel demand and emission effects of highway capacity enhancement projects. NOTES A stationary or point source is a large, geographically concentrated emitter, such as a coal-fired electrical power plant, whose emissions rates are large enough to be significant by themselves even if no other emission sources are present (Horowitz 1982, 7)
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78 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS in ozone abatement strategies to greater use of NO controls in many geographic areas (NRC 1991, 7)
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Contribution of Motor Vehicle Transportation to Air Pollution 79 Refueling losses and crankcase emissions are also generally considered in the evaporative emissions category as is a new category, resting losses. The latter was previously included under the hot soak and diurnal categories (Sierra Research 1993, 20)
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80 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS These programs are required in areas designated "serious" or above for ozone and "high moderate" or above for CO. EPA estimates that innovative inspection and maintenance programs could yield a 28 percent reduction in emissions (DOT and EPA 1993, 33)
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Contribution of Motor Vehicle Transportation to Air Pollution 81 In the early 1980s the entire ITLUP was distributed as a supplement to the Urban Transportation Planning System (UTPS) package, a travel demand modeling system package developed by the Federal Highway Administration (Harvey and Deakin 1993, 3-16)
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82 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS The U.S. Department of Transportation and the Environmental Protection Agency have already authorized $3 million; Department of Energy support is also being sought for a long-term program total of $25 million.
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Contribution of Motor Vehicle Transportation to Air Pollution 83 Cambridge Systematics, Inc. with Hague Consulting Group.
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84 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS Evans, L., R Herman, and T
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Contribution of Motor Vehicle Transportation to Air Pollution 85 Lilly, L.R.C.
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86 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS Putman, S
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TraffiG flow Charntcristiu Highway capacity enhancement projects have long been viewed as providing emission reductions and energy efficiencies by contributing to freer-flowing traffic conditions. In this chapter, the current knowledge about the initial effects of highway capacity additions on emissions and energy use is presented.
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Distribution of Residences and Businesses in the Region Travel Demand Chjics in Trfl4c Flows Changes in Trffic a Flows or, OTher Network Links Highway -SpesUr and Speed Capacity Variability Additions -Traffic Vohimes -Improvement Type I -Facility Type Baseline Traffic Changes in Traffic Flows on Improvcd Flows links -Speeds and Speed - i Speed Variability VanaIjOn -Traffic Volumes -Traffic Volume-a Changes Net Changes [Net in Highway in Energy Related Use Emissions Net Changes in Regional Air Quality FIGURE 3-1 Initial impacts of highway capacity additions and effects on air quality and energy use.
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Traffic Flow Characteristics 89 hide speeds, and reduce speed variability (i.e., smooth the traffic flow)
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90 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS REVIEW OF EFFECTS ON EMISSIONS Effects of Changes in Traffic Flow Patterns Drive Cycles and Average Speed A motor vehicle trip consists of a beginning and an end connected by a series of accelerations, decelerations, constant speed cruising, and idling. To measure emissions and fuel consumption, trips are simulated on laboratory dynamometers and motor vehicles are tested using standardized drive cycles.
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80 70 60 CL 50 40 30 CL 20 10 0 New York City Cycle Emission Testing Cycle Speed vs. Time Trace 598 Second Duration 7.1 mph Average Speed 0 200 400 600 800 1000 Elapsed Time (seconds)
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92 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS cycles and heavy-duty trucks on 4 drive cycles, including a baseline composite cycle (Table 3-1) ; adjusting baseline rates with the appropriate speed correction factors; and applying them to the appropriate vehicle class (see accompanying text box)
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TABLE 3-1 Speed Correction Factor Emission Testing Cycles (Guensler 1994, 24, 25, 31; Appendix A; Guensler et al.
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CALCULATION OF VEHICLE EMISSION RATES AND DERIVATION OF SPEED CORRECTION FACTORS Baseline emission rates were derived by driving thousands of new and in-use light-duty motor vehicles through the Federal Test Procedure (FTP) , an emission test composed of a defined cycle of starts, stops, accelerations, and constant-speed cruises conducted on laboratory dynamometers (computerized treadmills)
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Traffic Flow Characteristics 95 Certainty of Emission Estimates from Current Models Unfortunately, estimates of the emission effects of changes in traffic flow patterns from a highway capacity addition are not nearly as precise as implied by the complex functions used to derive the speedcorrected emission rates. First, current model estimates are based on a limited set of drive cycles (Table 3-1)
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Ic a, E 'a '0 %Ø :> 'U- (qdw) paad § § § 8 0 0 Ei
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0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 100 600 900 Time (sec) FIGURE 3-3 Speed-time traces of driving cycles with similar mean speeds (Effa and Larsen 1993, 18)
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0 15 30 45 60 - .9 -6 .3 9 FIGURE 3-4 Envelope of speeds and accelerations for three cycles with similar mean speeds (Effa and Larsen 1993, 20)
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Traffic Flow Characteristics 99 denying distribution of speeds and accelerations, which vary by type of facility and level of congestion and produce potentially large variations in emission levels. For example, existing emission models do not distinguish between driving on arterial highways and driving on freeways (Figure 3-6)
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High Speed I Speed vs. Time Trace 474 Second Duration 45.1 mph Average Speed 2 60 0.50 30 20 10 0 0 200 400 600 800 Elapsed Time (seconds)
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From page 114... ...
80 70 60 0 50 40 30 CL 20 10 0 High Speed 3 Speed vs. Time Trace 488 Second Duration 87.8 mph Average Speed 0 200 400 600 800 1000 Elapsed Time (seconds)
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FIGURE 3-6 Frequency distribution of speed and acceleration for freeway and arterial driving cycles with similar mean speeds (Effa and Larsen 1993, 19)
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Traffic Flow Characteristics 103 Percent Change in CO Emission Rate 1501 1:: .................... -100 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Initial Average Trip Speed (mph)
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Percent Change in NOx Emission Rate 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Initial Average Trip Speed (mph) Low ± Predicted *
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Traffic Flow Characteristics 105 Percent Change In VOC Emission Rate 400 300 200 100 0 -100 iJ ha U Initial Average Trip Speed (mph) -- Low ±Predicted*
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From page 119... ...
Percent Change in CO Emission Rate 800 600 400 200 0 -200 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 lniaI Average Trip Speed (mph) Low + Predicted *
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From page 120... ...
Traffic Flow Characteristics 107 Percent Change in NOx Emission Rate 800 600 400 200 0 -200 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Initial Average Trip Speed (mph) Low ±Predicled *
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108 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS In summary, although considerable research and vehicle testing have been performed, no definitive conclusions can be reached about how highway capacity additions and their effects on traffic flow characteristics change vehicle emission levels. The analysis requires examination of relatively small changes in average trip speeds using emissions data with large variances.
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75 70 65 IL 60 55 0 a 50 Id 45 s.d lfl 40 5/)
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TABLE 3-2 Urban Arterial Speed -- Level of Service Relationships and Arterial Class Characteristics ARTERIAL Ctss I (SUBURBAN DESIGN)
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Design category Control of access Arterial type Parking Separate left-turn lanes Signals per mile Speed Limits Miles per hour Kilometers per hour Pedestrian interference Roadside development Partial to almost full Partial Little or no control Multilane divided; two-lane Multilane divided or Undivided one-way; with shoulders undivided; one-way; two-way, two or two-lane more lanes No parking Some parking Parking permitted Yes Some No lto4 4to8 8to'12 40to45 30to40 25to35 64to72 48to64 40to56 None None Some Low density Moderate High density SouRce: TRB Committee on Highway Capacity, 1993.
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112 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS fect of these changes on emissions. The accompanying text box shows typical before and after speeds for a range of capacity projects on freeways and arterial roads, which range from about an increase of 8 kph (5 mph)
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Traffic Flow Characteristics 113 TYPICAL BEFORE AND AFTER AVERAGE SPEEDS FOR SELECTED HIGHWAY CAPACITY PROJECTS Freeway Capacity Additions, New freeway lanes 40-56 kph (25-35 mph)
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TABLE 3-3 Data Available on Traffic Flow Patterns and Vehicle Characteristics from a Sample of Traffic Simulation Models INDIVIDUAL VEHICLE INDIVIDUAL .
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Traffic Flow Characteristics 115 flect actual driving conditions. EPA has conducted surveys of driving behavior in selected cities, and CARB has sponsored similar research in the Los Angeles area (EPA 1993, 1-2)
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116 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS nication, John German, EPA, Jan.
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Traffic Flow Characteristics 117 Research, Oct.
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2 MOBLE5 MOBILE4. 1 MOBILE4 FTP Reference 0 z 0 1 1 I I I I I 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Average Speed (mph)
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Traffic Flow Characteristics 119 is responsible for the agency's long-term research program, is pursuing research on drive cycles toward development of a modal emissions model.2° However, implementation of a fully operational model is several years away (personal communication, Carl I Ripberger, EPA, Aug.
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120 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS modeled estimates of emissions and pollutant concentrations. This system of integrated models is several years from being fully operational, much less widely available to metropolitan planning organizations.22 Moreover, a complementary emission factor model must still be developed to drive the emissions element of this program.
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From page 134... ...
Traffic Flow Characteristics 121 overall effect on emissions will be positive or negative depends on the initial and post-improvement distributions of speeds and accelerations during peak and off-peak travel times. Network Effects Impacts of highway capacity additions may spill over onto neighboring routes, with mixed effects on emissions.
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From page 135... ...
122 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS SUMMARY ASSESSMENT OF EFFECTS ON EMISSIONS AND AIR QUALITY Net Effects on Emissions The effects of highway capacity additions on emissions are much less certain than generally believed. To the extent that capacity enhancement projects smooth traffic flows, reducing speed variability and the incidence of sharp accelerations, they should initially reduce emissions of CO, VOCs, and NO, The effect is most pronounced for CO and VOC emissions from lightduty vehicles, particularly if traffic smoothing reduces the incidence of sharp accelerations.
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From page 136... ...
Traffic Flow Characteristics 123 where NO emissions are already high because of the stringent requirements for NO reduction in conformity regulations. For a broad range of intermediate conditions, highway capacity additions are likely to have modest effects on smoothing traffic flows and result in small upward shifts in the distribution of traffic speeds.
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124 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS sions to determine how concentrations of pollutants in the atmosphere will be affected. Highway capacity additions should help relieve localized concentrations of CO, or hot spots, by eliminating bottlenecks where congestion builds and traffic speeds are highly variable.
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Traffic Flow Characteristics 125 within this range. Traffic flow improvements on urban arterials, where average vehicle speeds fall within this range, are most likely to meet these conditions.
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126 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS with increasing speed and engine size (Greene 1981, 441)
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From page 140... ...
Traffic Flow Characteristics 127 SUMMARY ASSESSMENT AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR IMPROVING THE KNOWLEDGE BASE Adding highway capacity will not necessarily produce across-theboard reductions in emissions and fuel consumption, as generally has been believed. Although the current state of knowledge does not allow for precise estimates of the emissions and energy effects of traffic flow changes from capacity enhancement projects, a basic understanding of the major factors contributing to high emission levels and poor fuel economy for the current vehicle fleet suggests where benefits are most and least likely.
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From page 141... ...
128 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS the behavior of CO and VOC emissions at free-flow freeway speeds is uncertain. For a broad range of intermediate traffic conditions, highway capacity additions are likely to have modest effects on traffic smoothing and to result in small upward shifts in the distribution of traffic speeds.
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From page 142... ...
Traffic Flow Characteristics 129 flow conditions. Finally, model estimates of predicted changes in emission levels tend to have large variances for a wide range of changes in average trip speeds that are typical of many highway capacity additions.
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130 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS in-use fuel economy of the vehicle fleet should be periodically updated. Data and models for representing the effects of speed and acceleration on motor vehicle fuel economy should also be updated from time to time to be representative of the current vehicle fleet.
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Traffic Flow Characteristics 131 NOTES Density is defined as the number of vehicles occupying a given length of a lane or roadway, averaged over time. It is generally expressed as vehicles per mile (TRB 1992, 1-6)
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132 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS The emissions and fuel consumption data were developed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory for the Federal Highway Administration in the mid-1980s (see discussion in Chapter 2)
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From page 146... ...
Traffic Flow Characteristics 133 the entire traffic stream (personal communication, Carmen Hass-Klau, consultant, June 3, 1994. Hass-Klau believes that if traffic calming is introduced in a widespread way, driving behavior will be affected)
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From page 147... ...
134 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS 48 to 40 kph (30 to 25 mph)
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From page 148... ...
Traffic Flow Characteristics 135 The range between the highest and lowest estimates of fuel economy for the 12 light-duty, gasoline-powered test vehicles is as follows: 40 kph, 15.0 kpl; 56 kph, 12.8 kpl; 72 kph, 5.6 kpl; 88 kph, 6.1 kpl; 104 kph, 5.1 kpl; and 120 kph, 4.4 kpl (25 mph, 35.4 mpg; 35mph, 30.1 mpg; 45 mph, 13.1 mpg; 55mph, 14.4 mpg; 65mph, 12.1 mpg; and 75mph, 10.4 mpg)
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136 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS Duleep, K.G.
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From page 150... ...
Traffic Flow Characteristics 137 NCHRP.
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From page 151... ...
Travel Dmad An argument against adding highway capacity is that the roads will simply fihlup again with traffic as service levels improve. Traffic conditions, the argument continues, will become congested again but with larger traffic volumes, thus increasing total emissions and energy consumption.
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From page 152... ...
Distribution of Residences and Businesses in the Region Highway Capacity Addition Changes in Traffic -- Improvement Flows on Affected Type : Links -- Facility -- Reduction in Type travel time Net Changes in HighwayRelated Emissions Net Changes in Regional Air Quality Net Changes in Energy Use FIGURE 4-1 Impacts of highway capacity additions on travel demand.
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140 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS The primary factors affecting metropolitan travel growth are demographic and economic. Metropolitan areas have grown tremendously in population.
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From page 154... ...
Travel Demand 141 population and job growth has taken place in the suburban portions of metropolitan areas (Mieszkowski and Mills 1993; Chinitz 1993)
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From page 155... ...
142 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS tion costs typically account for between 1 and 4 percent of total production costs (Appendix Q All else being equal, the lower the cost of highway travel, the greater the propensity to travel and the less priority residents and businesses will give to transportation relative to other preferences and costs of doing business.
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From page 156... ...
Travel Demand 143 Percent Change in VMT lOOi 80 60 40 20 -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - I 45-50 50-55 55-60 50-65 65-70 70-75 75-80 80-85 85-90 Year FIGURE 4-2 Changes in the rate of growth of urban VMT, 1945-1990 (FHWA 1987, 225-228; FHWA 1992, 193)
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144 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS vehicle operating costs vary with speed and level of congestion. These effects are generally much smaller than travel time effects and are not perceived by most drivers.
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From page 158... ...
Travel Demand 145 additions improve traffic flow for motor vehicles to the detriment of slower-moving modes. Changes in trip destinations: Capacity additions can increase the relative attractiveness of some trip destinations by reducing travel times to those destinations.
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From page 159... ...
146 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS Automobile ownership: A traveler's shift from transit to automobile use for the journey to work might contribute to a household's decision to acquire an additional automobile. The availability of an additional automobile may lead to more of the household's nonwork trips being made by automobile.
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From page 160... ...
Travel Demand 147 way use attributable to such factors as population and income growth often occur in parallel with additions to highway capacity and may either influence or be influenced by them. Figure 4-3 shows how highway capacity additions and other factors, such as population growth, can affect travel costs (user costs per mile of travel)
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From page 161... ...
Cost per Vehicle Mile Vehicle Miles FIGURE 4-3 Combined effects of highway capacity additions and travel growth from other factors on highway use.
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From page 162... ...
Travel Demand 149 Only part of the combined effect is attributable to the highway capacity addition. The net effect of the addition can be determined by comparing Point b (which shows the effect of a change in demand from external factors without a change in highway capacity)
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From page 163... ...
150 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS has been added are no better than they would have been without the expansion. Highway improvements can increase the number of motor vehicle trips and vehicle miles by making travel less onerous.
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From page 164... ...
Travel Demand 151 Economists use elasticities to measure the responsiveness of the demand for a good to changes in its price. The elasticity of demand is the percentage change in demand for a good divided by the percentage change in its price.'5 Travel demand researchers have adopted this concept to estimate the percentage change in highway system use (e.g., as measured in VMT)
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From page 165... ...
152 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS REVIEW OF EVIDENCE FROM STUDIES Several recent reports (Hansen et al. 1993; Dowling et al.
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From page 166... ...
Travel Demand 153 duces the chance that important diversion effects will be missed. However, it increases the cost of data collection and the possibility that unrelated factors (such as traffic changes due to economic conditions)
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From page 167... ...
154 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS 10 years and in a 4 to 6 percent increase after 16 years (Hansen et al.
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From page 168... ...
Travel Demand 155 After the study committee's final meeting, the Standing Advisory Committee on Truck Road Assessment (SACTRA) issued a report (SACTRA 1994)
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From page 169... ...
156 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS for entire metropolitan areas (or large districts within them) to obtain models that predict VMT within these areas as a function of transportation system supply (usually measured by lane miles or highway miles)
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From page 170... ...
Travel Demand 157 gasoline, had a far greater effect on VMT growth than increases in highway supply (Hansen et al.
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From page 171... ...
158 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS information on travel volumes and travel times by time of day. Highway capacity additions may also cause shifts in the time of day when trips are made.
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From page 172... ...
Travel Demand 159 of travel time savings on traffic volumes (SACTRA 1994, 46)
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From page 173... ...
160 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS Trip generation involves estimating the future number of trips beginning and ending in each analysis zone. Trip generation is usually performed separately for different trip types (e.g., home-based work trips, home-based shopping trips, and non-home-based trips)
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From page 174... ...
Travel Demand 161 in their representation of spatial relationships that they can hardly support an analysis of marginal travel time effects. Time of day for trips is usually estimated through the application of historical temporal distribution percentages.
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From page 175... ...
162 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS ronmental Protection Agency; and the U.S. Department of Energy have initiated a major program to enhance current models and develop new procedures.
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From page 176... ...
Travel Demand 163 These findings are consistent with the supply-demand framework diagrammed in Figure 4-3. That framework is useful for distinguishing between increases in highway use attributable to an increase in capacity and those attributable to external factors, such as population and income growth.
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From page 177... ...
164 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS The existing four-step travel forecasting process was developed primarily to assist in determining the size of capital facilities (e.g., number of lanes) , not to estimate the amount of travel new facilities might induce.
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From page 178... ...
Travel Demand 165 determined mainly by the level of economic activity in a metropolitan area and the area's role in the national and global economy. Moreover, deregulation of the transportation industry and technological innovations in other freight sectors have decreased the cost of transportation relative to labor and materials, making the cost savings from highway capacity additions less important to the shippers and receivers.
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From page 180... ...
Travel Demand 167 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR IMPROVING THE KNOWLEDGE BASE A better understanding of how individual travelers and freight carriers and shippers make travel choices is necessary to forecast more accurately the likely effects on travel demand of changes in highway cost, highway service, and other policy options. For many metropolitan areas, the household travel surveys that provided the origindestination and mode choice data for regional travel forecasting models are out of date.
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From page 181... ...
168 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS help shed light on how these policy actions affect travel choices over time. A major methodological challenge is to control for the effects of other variables, such as regional population and economic growth, on long-term growth in travel.
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From page 182... ...
Travel Demand 169 Better models more relevant for policy analysis can be developed. Although the limitations of models in the policy process -- particularly in the precision of their estimates -- should be recognized, they are useful in analyzing complex phenomena.
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From page 183... ...
170 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS An exception is California. In the San Francisco area, for example, 20 percent of the households have three or more vehicles.
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From page 184... ...
Travel Demand 171 Small or medium trucks are represented as equivalent to two passenger cars and large trucks to three passenger cars. A recent report (Hartgen et al.
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From page 185... ...
172 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS Domencich, TA., G Kraft, andJ.P.
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From page 186... ...
Travel Demand 173 Lave, C
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From page 187... ...
Land Uso and Ur an form As described in the previous chapter, a highway expansion can induce traffic increases by releasing suppressed demand or attracting travelers away from other modes. The concern of this chapter is whether, over the long term, increased highway capacity results in development that fosters additional motor vehicle travel and hence degrades air quality and increases energy consumption (Figure 5-1)
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From page 188... ...
Changes in Travel Demand Highway Capacity IL Addition Changes in -- Improvement Traffic Flows Type -- Reduction in -- Facility travel time Type -- Improved access Net Changes in HighwayRelated Emissions Net Changes in Regional Air Quality Net Changes in Energy Use FIGURE 5-1 Impacts of highway capacity additions on land use and urban form.
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From page 189... ...
176 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS BACKGROUND Arguments Against Capacity Additions Arguments about the adverse air quality and energy effects of shifts in land use patterns related to expanded highway capacity can be distinguished at two levels of impact. The initial impact is at the project level, at which the capacity expansion on an individual link improves the access between points at either end.
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From page 190... ...
Land Use and Urban Form 177 AVLNLW SYSTCM LDgS o1vft,cs Lp TiI4L A'ID PUBUC ELL. CT jrnc Ipp,R%cl()
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From page 191... ...
178 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS dent land use changes) at both A and B that increases traffic between A and B?
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From page 192... ...
Land Use and Urban Form 179 Context of Transportation -- Land Use Relationship The questions listed earlier assume a direct and discernable relationship between transportation investments and land use. This assumption appears well founded in light of the history of urban development and changes in transportation technologies.
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From page 193... ...
180 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS center. Cities are typically denser at the middle than at the periphery.
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From page 194... ...
Land Use and Urban Form 181 argument made against expanded highway capacity is that by facilitating increased economic activity in a region, the expanded capacity will encourage more traffic and more air pollution. If a region is grow- ing economically, development will occur somewhere within or near it.
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From page 195... ...
182 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS lic infrastructure investment will increase private output by roughly 40 cents. Munnell (1990, 1991)
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From page 196... ...
Land Use and Urban Form 183 TABLE 5-1 Percentage Change in U.S. Population, 1980-1990 (Bureau of the Census 1994, Table 41)
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From page 197... ...
184 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS location on the basis of population characteristics and the willingness of residents to travel for different kinds of goods (Christaller 1966; Giuliano 1989a)
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From page 198... ...
Land Use and Urban Form 185 conceptually important location factors such as agglomeration economies, labor force availability, and economies of scale. Location theories in general ignore the durability of location decisions and their impact on urban form over long periods of time.
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From page 199... ...
TABLE 5-2 Effects of Highway Projects on Land Use and Land Values (Adapted from M Meyer and E
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From page 200... ...
Land Use and Urban Form 187 An extensive statistical analysis of the difference between metropolitan areas with and without beltways found little difference in terms of changes in population, job location and type, or overall economic activity (Payne-Maxie and Blayney-Dyett 1980)
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From page 201... ...
188 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS have resulted in more clustered, dense development. These successes are limited, however.
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From page 202... ...
Land Use and Urban Form 189 policies and to link land use and transportation plans has made it possible to ensure that new development on the edge of existing cities occurs at fairly high densities (Pucher and Clorer 1992)
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From page 203... ...
190 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS RESULTS FROM MODELS Models provide an alternative means of testing theoretical relationships between highway capacity expansion and land use. Models make it possible to hold constant the complex set of external influences on land use, aside from transportation, to isolate transportation's effects on residential and business location.
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From page 204... ...
Land Use and Urban Form 191 decentralizing consequences depending on how these reductions induce firms or employees to change location. The models required to capture these potential changes are complex.
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From page 205... ...
192 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS tion, and a highway network in which the effects of congestion can be simulated. The Anas model, like the Mills model, has never been applied in practice.
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From page 206... ...
Land Use and Urban Form 193 This aggregate mutlinomial logit model approach to land use has been integrated with travel forecast models by Putman -- ITLUP, the Integrated Transportation Land-Use Package (Putman 1991) -- and by Harvey (Harvey and Deakin 1991)
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From page 207... ...
194 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS Metropolitan Transportation Commission's 1989 transportation improvement program (ABAG 1991)
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From page 208... ...
Land Use and Urban Form 195 TABLE 5-3 Average Vehicle Miles Traveled at Different Levels of Density (Dunphey and Fisher 1994, Table 4)
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From page 209... ...
2 Cd a 1) in & L I- 1, 0 '0 a is ID 196 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS importance for both VOC and carbon monoxide (CO)
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From page 210... ...
Land Use and Urban Form 197 tainly no urbanized area within a metropolitan area in the United States has an overall density sufficient to cause the major shifts in per capita travel shown in Table 5-3 and Figure 5-3 (Table 54) •7 Of the 50 largest metropolitan areas in the United States, the average density within the urbanized area is 965 persons per square kilometer (2,500 persons per square mile)
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From page 211... ...
198 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS suburban commercial developments to reduce automobile use in newly developing or redeveloping areas (Cervero 1991; Cambridge Systematics et al. 1992; Atash 1993)
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From page 212... ...
Land Use and Urban Form 199 TABLE 5-5 Mode Shares: LUTRAQ Western Bypass Study Area (Cambridge Systematics et al. 1992 and ParsonsBrinckerhoff in Giuliano 1994)
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From page 213... ...
200 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS areas where population is growing, Denver's urbanized area has a relatively low population density [687 persons per square kilometer (1,780 persons per square mile)
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From page 214... ...
Land Use and Urban Form 201 gions, are fairly crude in others. Concerted research on such topics as travel behavior and modeling improvements is required to enhance the ability to estimate the consequences of highway capacity expansion on land use and air quality.
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From page 215... ...
202 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS Early case studies indicated that highway investments had powerful effects on land values and suburban development. More recent studies of major highway and transit investments do not indicate large effects.
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From page 216... ...
Land Use and Urban Form 203 urban area lead to decentralization as the theory predicts, but they also indicate that the effects on density, and hence air quality, are small over a 20-year forecast period. Conformity analyses of metropolitan areas to meet the requirements of the CAAA, for example, indicate that the differences between the build and no-build scenarios are typically within the forecast errors of state-of-the-art models.
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From page 217... ...
204 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS uses change very slowly, behavioral responses to changes in highway capacity must be measured over forecast periods of 20 to 40 years to fully appreciate the implications of the capacity change. Longitudinal studies are required to address these issues.
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From page 218... ...
Land Use and Urban Form 205 policies, such as adding highway capacity, on land use and related travel behavior can be examined comprehensively and with greater accuracy. NOTES See especially the arguments advanced by Meyer and Gomez-lbanez in Chapter 2 and Appendix A of their book, which builds upon the paper by Mills and Tan (1980)
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From page 219... ...
206 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS The effects of capacity expansions on total traffic and emissions were also influenced by existing constraints on development. Growth controls in inner suburbs, for example, restrict the ability to increase density (and thereby reduce automobile use)
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From page 220... ...
Land Use and Urban Form 207 Bureau of the Census.
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From page 221... ...
208 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS Gordon, P, and H Richardson.
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From page 222... ...
Land Use and Urban Form 209 Munnell, A
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From page 223... ...
•'.• . .1 findings and conGlusions Despite more than two decades of clean air legislation and considerable progress in reducing pollution from transportation sources, many major metropolitan areas continue to be out of compliance with national air quality standards.
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From page 224... ...
Findings and Conclusions 211 OVERVIEW The CAAA require close scrutiny of metropolitan area transportation improvement programs (TIPs) , particularly projects, such as highway capacity additions, that could stimulate new motor vehicle travel and thus increase vehicle emission levels.
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From page 225... ...
212 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS MPOs, states, federal agencies, and courts that must exercise oversight responsibility are being asked to make judgments on the basis of their interpretations of the available scientific evidence. This study was motivated in large part by the practical needs of policy makers and decision makers in meeting regulatory requirements.
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From page 226... ...
Findings and Conclusions 213 Although massive investments in new highway infrastructure are unlikely in the post-Interstate era, pressure for expanding highway capacity will continue in the growing suburban and exurban portions of large metropolitan areas. These locations are where most new road construction or expansion is expected and where the potential for increasing emission levels and energy use is greatest.
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From page 227... ...
214 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS time of day they travel to more preferred travel times. These adjustments must be taken into account in an overall assessment of the impact of highway capacity additions.
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From page 228... ...
Findings and Conclusions 215 The effects of highway capacity additions on emissions are highly dependent on the state of vehicle design, automotive and motor fuel technology, and emission controls. Major changes in any of these factors that reduce the overall level of vehicle emissions or the emissions response to traffic flow variables will proportionally reduce the positive or negative effects of highway capacity additions on vehicle emission levels.
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From page 229... ...
216 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS fic flow patterns that would have occurred had the highway capacity addition not been made. To clarify what is known about the initial impacts of highway capacity additions, net increases in highway use attributable to capacity expansions are assumed to be negligible.
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From page 230... ...
Findings and Conclusions 217 Finding 4: Smoothing traffic flows reduces travel speed variation and the incidence of vehicle accelerations, which place heavy loads on the engine, thereby initially reducing emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) , volatile organic compounds (VOCs)
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From page 231... ...
218 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS turn depend on the magnitude of the highway capacity addition and on local traffic conditions. All else being equal, the emissions effects are greater the more traffic is diverted from other congested roads, the greater the level and duration of congestion experienced before the capacity addition, and the greater the total volume of affected traffic.
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From page 232... ...
Findings and Conclusions 219 Finding 12: The initial effects on air quality of improved levels of service from highway capacity additions vary by pollutant. Localized CO hot spots will be relieved by capacity additions that eliminate bottlenecks where congestion occurs.
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From page 233... ...
220 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS because of population or regional economic growth from increases attributable to the supply addition, the primary focus of this study. Finding 1: Highway capacity additions that reduce travel time and the day-to-day variability in travel time will induce increased highway use as long as travel times are shorter and the reliability of motor vehicle travel is improved, all else being equal.
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From page 234... ...
Findings and Conclusions 221 Finding 4: Highway capacity additions will not greatly increase the amount of truck travel in metropolitan areas. Truck travel responds to shippers' scheduling demands and already tends to seek the most cost-effective travel times and routes.
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From page 235... ...
222 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS highway use by encouraging decentralized development that increases trip distances and travel by automobile. The evidence for these impacts and their likely effects on regional emission levels, air quality, and energy use are discussed in the following findings.
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From page 236... ...
Findings and Conclusions 223 which in turn increased access to undeveloped land. In general, currently planned expansions of existing highway networks in built-up metropolitan areas are not as likely to result in major structural changes in metropolitan development patterns for the following reasons: (a)
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From page 237... ...
224 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS rent spatial distributions of households and employment in metropolitan areas. In addition, the near-term effects being modeled are themselves usually small, although the cumulative effects of these small network changes over long periods may be considerably greater.
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From page 238... ...
Findings and Conclusions 225 Location of project in the region: Because of the high costs of acquiring right-of-way to construct or expand highways in central cities and the concentration of new population and job growth in suburban areas, most major highway capacity additions will be built at the urban fringe. Conversely, most minor traffic flow improvements will be undertaken to reduce congestion in developed areas, either in central cities or congested suburban locations; undeveloped areas typically do not have enough congestion to require minor capacity enhancements.
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From page 239... ...
226 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS pacity additions on air quality. For example, in nonattainment areas where ozone formation is NO,, limited, speed-enhancing highway capacity additions that increase NO,, emissions will exacerbate the conditions leading to ozone formation.
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From page 240... ...
Findings and Conclusions 227 opable land is available and other growth conditions are present, new capacity is likely to attract more development and related traffic to the location of the improvement. Corresponding increases in emission levels and energy use in these areas are likely Because of the durability of current metropolitan spatial patterns, however, it may be years before these changes make a significant difference in regional emission levels and air quality.
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From page 241... ...
228 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS Development, and the California Air Resources Board are also conducting research on drive cycles leading to development of modal emissions models, although fully operational models may be more than 3 years from completion. The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA)
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From page 242... ...
Findings and Conclusions 229 mate the appropriate analytic relationships among them. The effort requires (a)
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From page 243... ...
230 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN I-HGHWAYS capabilities can be validated. Finally, continued improvement in the linkages between land use and transportation forecasting models should be sought so that the long-term effects of transportation policies, such as highway capacity additions, on land use and related travel behavior can be examined comprehensively and with greater accuracy.
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From page 244... ...
Findings and Conclusions 231 ulating development and traffic and thus increasing motor vehicle emissions and energy use are likely to occur at those locations where most new capacity additions are being proposed: rapidly growing suburban areas. Yet it is precisely in these locations where the greatest need is perceived for highway capacity additions to support regional economic growth and competitiveness and where the pressures to provide highway capacity to support development are most intense.
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From page 245... ...
232 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS corridors -- but could mitigate some of the negative effects on emissions from travel growth. Managed highway capacity additions may keep travel growth in check to meet near-term conformity requirements in some nonattainment areas.
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From page 246... ...
Findings and Conclusions 233 gies) to have significant impacts.
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From page 247... ...
234 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS There are no operational models, however, that formally analyze the impact of transportation improvements on aggregate regional growth, in part because of the lack of a theoretical basis for determining the relationship between transportation improvements and population and economic growth. The objective of the research is a model that accurately reflects the impacts of speed, engine load, and start conditions on emissions under a comprehensive variety of driving characteristics and vehicle technologies (NCHRP 1994, 1)
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From page 248... ...
Findings and Conclusions 235 a similar program for the northeastern states beginning with model year 1999 (Federal Register 1995) but gives the states flexibility to provide emission reductions equivalent to a LEV program.
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From page 249... ...
236 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS Hartgen, D.T., A.J. Reser, and WE.
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From page 250... ...
Appondix A Emission and Energy Characteristics of Heavy-Duty Diesel-Powered Trucks and Buses K
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From page 251... ...
238 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS correction factors are contrasted with the findings on these issues from other data or engineering analyses. HDDV fuel economy data are reviewed, with emphasis on average fuel economy derived from surveys.
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From page 252... ...
Emission and Energy Characteristics 239 Class IV spans the 14,000- to 16,000-lb GVW range, and Class V spans the 16,000- to 19,500-lb GVV'IJ range. In the past, few trucks have been sold in these classes.
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From page 253... ...
TABLE A-i U.S. Retail Sales by Class, All Trucks (MVMA 1981, 1986, 1991)
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From page 254... ...
Emission and Energy Characteristics 241 TABLE A-2 U.S. Factory Sales and Dieselization (Excludes Imports)
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From page 255... ...
242 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS engine makes in their trucks in many cases. Engines are classified into three types: light-heavy, medium-heavy, and heavy-heavy.
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From page 256... ...
TABLE A-3 Diesel Engines Used in Domestic Trucks, 1990 (MVMA 1991) ENGINE MANUFACTURER IV V VI VII VIllA VIIIB Bus VI Bus VII AND Bus VIII Caterpillar 0 0 1,184 15,575 391 33,706 0 0 Cummins 0 51 294 0 343 55,854 4 326 DDC 0 0 181 214 5 15,207 5,143 834 Ford 5 0 2,998 18,997 5,158 0 2,646 0 Mack 0 0 0 :0 0 16,842 0 0 Navistar 14,820 0 7,519 25,147 5,947 0 5,526 11,117 Import Engine0 0 0 536 1,074 102 572 0 0 Total 14,825 51 12,712 61,007 11,946 122,181 13,319 12,277 Mostly Mercedes or Volvo
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From page 257... ...
244 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS of the Census called the Truck Inventory and Use Survey (TIUS)
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From page 258... ...
Emission and Energy Characteristics 245 VillA have very similar annual VMT by vintage. Annual VMT appears to be 24,000 to 26,000 mi/year for the first 4 years with a steady decline thereafter for trucks in Classes VI and VII.
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From page 259... ...
246 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN I-IIGHWAYS Thus, the total lifetime mileage can be 1 million to 1.2 million mi with two rebuilds, and engines and trucks can last up to 15 years. However, in many "rough use" applications such as construction and mining, the useful life can be considerably shorter.
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From page 261... ...
Average EQUIVWT (xl000 lbs.) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Class 6 Class 7 Class 8A Class 8B GVW Class Gasoline M Diesel FIGURE A-2 Average operating equivalent weight by gross vehicle weight class [based on EEA analysis of 1987 TIUS data (Bureau of the Census 1987)
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From page 262... ...
Emission and Energy Characteristics 249 The TIUS data indicate that most light-heavy and medium-heavy truck VMT is in the local area, but actual urban VMT fractions for all trucks are not well known. Heavy-heavy (Class VIIIB)
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From page 263... ...
250 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS The ongoing federal and California regulatory efforts to reduce emissions from heavy-duty diesel vehicles are discussed in this section. Four issues that affect emissions are addressed: (a)
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From page 264... ...
TABLE A-6 Federal Exhaust Emission Standards for Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines (g/bhp-hr) (EPA, 40 CFR Part 86, Emission Standards for Heavy Trucks)
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From page 265... ...
252 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS dynamometer, but before 1985 the test consisted of measuring the emissions at 13 steady-state test points. Since 1985 the test procedure has been a transient procedure with Starts, stops, and speedlload changes.
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From page 266... ...
Emission and Energy Characteristics 253 buses. Operators of urban bus fleets in metropolitan areas with 1980 populations of 750,000 or more are required to choose between two options.
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From page 267... ...
TABLE A-7 California Exhaust Emission Standards for Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines (g/bhp-hr)
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From page 268... ...
Emission and Energy Characteristics 255 are being used to spur the sales of low-emission buses and to rebuild engines to lower emission standards. Low-emission engines can be certified to a range of "credit standards," which are at least 30 percent lower than the ceiling standard.
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From page 269... ...
256 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS pollutants of interest. The study concluded that fuel aromatic content was most significant for PM, and PM emissions increased significantly as fuel sulfur content increased.
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From page 270... ...
Emission and Energy Characteristics 257 ification. Clean diesel fuel research is not a priority at the federal level at this time, but this may change in the near future.
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From page 271... ...
TABLE A-8 California Exhaust Emissions Standards for Alternative-Fuel Heavy-Duty Diesel Cycle Engine (g/bhp-hr) MODEL YEAR TOTAL HC OR OMHCEI OPTIONAL VOC CO NO, PARTICULATE FORMALDEHYDESb 1985-1987 1.3 - 15.5 5.1 - - 1988-1989 1.3 - 15.5 6.0 0.60 - 1990 1.3 1.2 15.5 6.0 0.60 - 1991-1993 1.3 1.2 15.5 5.0 0.25c 0.10 1994-1995 1.3 1.2 15.5 5.0 0.10 0.10 1996-1997 1.3 1.2 15.5 5.0 0.10 0.10 Nom: New standards are under consideration for 1998 and later.
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From page 272... ...
Emission and Energy Characteristics 259 ther lean burn and oxidation catalyst technology or stoichiometric burn and three-way catalyst technology. Manufacturers dispute these opinions, and CARB has not yet decided on a LET/LEB program.
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From page 273... ...
260 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS inspection and maintenance program. Except for California's, these programs are thought to be ineffective, since typically only 2 or 3 percent of trucks fail the inspection.
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From page 274... ...
Emission and Energy Characteristics 261 CARB has also promulgated a periodic smoke self-inspection program for heavy-duty diesel-powered vehicle fleets, as directed by Section 43701(a) of the Health and Safety Code.
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From page 275... ...
262 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS Much of the research and testing on heavy-duty truck in-use emissions was done in the early 1980s, and even these tests were done on a relatively small number of vehicles and engines. Since the mid-1980s there has been virtually no testing of in-use HDD trucks.
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From page 276... ...
Emission and Energy Characteristics 263 steady state and transient emissions. It was discovered that Cummins engines behaved differently from all other engine types because of their unique fuel systems.
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From page 277... ...
264 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS emissions of concern between steady state engine maps and transient cycle emissions: Diesel engines do not require acceleration enrichment, and the air-fuel ratio during a transient acceleration/deceleration is more carefully controlled than in a gasoline engine. Diesel engines require very little cold start enrichment, and the effect of cold starts on emissions is small.
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From page 278... ...
Emission and Energy Characteristics 265 in two of the three cases, the match between emissions in g/bhp-hr was extremely close, within ±2 percent. in the third case, the match was much poorer (+ 20 percent)
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From page 279... ...
TABLE A-9 Results of Emission Factor Analysis (Emissions in g/bhp-hr)
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From page 280... ...
Emission and Energy Characteristics 267 the deterioration factors. Regression analysis of the data from the 12 Cummins engines indicated large improvements in the significance of the 0-mi and deterioration rates for all pollutants except the deterioration rate for NO, The values of the 0-mi emissions rate from Cummins engines were not significantly different from those of all trucks; however, the deterioration rate for VOC emissions was significant at the 90 percent confidence level, whereas the deterioration rates for CO and particulate were significant at the 95 percent confidence level.
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From page 281... ...
268 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS TABLEA-10 Comparision of 1979 Baseline Emissions with Intercept of Emission Factors (g/bhp-hr)
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From page 282... ...
Emission and Energy Characteristics 269 rioration appears unjustifiable for VOC and particulate emissions. However, the inverse relationship between NO and VOC suggests that NO emissions deterioration with age or use may be zero or even negative.
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From page 283... ...
TABLE A-il Effect and Frequency of Component Malperformances in Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines (EEA 1993) COMPONENTS EFFECT ON EMISSIONS FREQUENCY Air filter (dirty)
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From page 284... ...
Emission and Energy Characteristics 271 per horsepower produced)
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From page 285... ...
272 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS type (e.g., disabled puff limiter) with an increase or decrease in emissions of VOC, NOR, and particulate.
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From page 286... ...
Emission and Energy Characteristics 273 in the 0.7- to 0.9-g/bhp-hr range. More recently, certification levels have declined to the 0.3- to 0.5-g/bhp-hr range, indicating a 50 percent reduction in emissions.
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From page 287... ...
274 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS ent acceleration capabilities of heavy trucks compared with light-duty vehicles. Only the 1 NYNF cycle was excluded for the speed correction factor derivation to eliminate any cold-start-related emission effects.
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From page 288... ...
Emission and Energy Characteristics 275 for each speed are normalized by the composite emission rate, and hence vehicle-specific effects are removed. Since trucks are geared so that they reach 70 to 75 mph at rated power and speed, a check of emissions is possible at 70 to 75 mph by theoretically converting the g/bhp-hr emissions of engines at full loadlrated speed to g/mi.
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From page 289... ...
276 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS The EPA relationships are plotted in Figure A-3. It can be seen that VOC and CO decrease continuously over the range of speeds (up to 47 mph)
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From page 290... ...
Average Speed (MPH)
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From page 291... ...
278 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS The steady state test data on VOC emissions indicate significant variability between engines in brake-specific emission rates from 50 to 70 mph. Most engines have an increase in brake-specific VOC emission rates ranging from 30 to 100 percent, and the average increase is about 60 percent.
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From page 292... ...
Emission and Energy Characteristics 279 HEAVY-DUTY TRUCK FUEl. ECONOMY Average Fuel Economy Truck fuel economy is a function of several variables, including Truck size or class, Engine type, Payload, Driving cycle, and State of technology.
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From page 293... ...
8.50 8.00 7.50 M p 7.00 G 6.50 6.00 5.50 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 Model Year FIGURE A-4 Average MPG (miles per gallon) by vintage, Class VI diesel trucks [based on EEA analysis of 1987 TIUS data (Bureau of the Census 1987)
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From page 294... ...
8.50 8.00 7.50 M P 7.00 G 6.50 6.00 I 5.50 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 Model Year FIGURE A-5 Average MPG (miles per gallon) by vintage, Class VII diesel trucks [based on EEA analysis of 1987 TIUS data (Bureau of the Census 1987)
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From page 295... ...
6.00 5.76 M P 5.50 G 5.25 5.00' ' I I I I I I 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 Model Year FIGURE A-6 Average MPG (miles per gallon) by vintage, Class VillA diesel trucks [based on EEA analysis of 1987 TIUS data (Bureau of the Census 1987)
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From page 296... ...
5.45 5.36 5.25 M 5.15 P G 5.05 4.95 4.85 475• 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1986 1986 1987 Model Year FIGURE A-7 Average MPG (miles per gallon) by vintage, Class VIIIB diesel trucks [based on EEA analysis of 1987 TIUS data (Bureau of the Census 1987)
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From page 297... ...
284 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS The data in TIUS do not permit a detailed disaggregation of the effect of weight or driving cycle on fuel economy because only a reported average over the previous year is available. TIUS also reports on average payload and "area of operation" (divided into local, short haul, or long haul, depending on where the greatest percentage of annual miles was accrued)
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From page 298... ...
Emission and Energy Characteristics 285 Figure A-8 shows the change in fuel economy as computed by TCAPE for two trucks at the three speed cycles. The first is a Class VillA super medium truck of 48,000-lb GVW loaded to 40,000 lb.
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From page 299... ...
M6 e 5 S P4 e r 3 G a 0 n 1 -- 48,000 lbs.
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From page 300... ...
Emission and Energy Characteristics 287 decrease with increased engine speed, so a net decrease in fuel economy of more than 30 percent can be expected for a speed increase from 50 to 70 mph. Table A-12 indicates the fuel economy decrease observed from actual trucks in the 50- to 65-mph range.
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From page 301... ...
TABLE A-12 Effect of Speed on Fuel Consumption Rates (DOT 1974)
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From page 302... ...
Emission and Energy Characteristics 289 des in urban and short-haul routes may, indeed, be close to 20 mph, making the conversion factor derivation approximately consistent with the base emission factor. The average fuel economy of the heavyduty Class VIIIB truck is likely to be more heavily weighted to highway speeds, leading to some degree of inconsistency in the derived conversion factor.
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From page 303... ...
290 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS in conclusion, the conversion factor estimates are well grounded in data, and the only source of error is the absence of a direct link of MPG and bsfc to vehicle speed. The total estimation error is not likely to be large (about 5 percent of the estimate)
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From page 304... ...
Emission and Energy Characteristics 291 questioned in some quarters, but EEA believes that the errors introduced by this type of test are not large. Part of the reason is that trucks and buses are so power limited that accelerations are usually conducted at wide-open throttle, so that errors in acceleration rates between engine and vehicle tests have no significant effect on engine load and emissions.
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From page 305... ...
292 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS case of the SCF or with time in the case of the conversion factor are not likely to be affected much. In summary, there are probably significant errors in the absolute magnitude of emissions predicted by current methods, but not in the trends with time or speed up to 55 mph.
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From page 306... ...
Emission and Energy Characteristics 293 NOTES Most CNG/LPG engines are of the spark ignition type. The method relied on engineering analysis to develop a model to link the dynamometer inertia weight and power absorption setting to cycle bhphr using field consumption data.
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From page 308... ...
Appudix B Review of Empirical Studies of Induced Traffic HARRY S COHEN Cambridge Systematics, Inc.
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From page 309... ...
296 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS growth in the corridor, Jorgenson examined traffic counts in the corridor for several years before the opening of the new facilities and found that they were closely correlated with gasoline sales in Connecticut. Consequently, he used information on the growth in gasoline sales after the opening of the parkways to estimate the normal growth in traffic.
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From page 310... ...
Review of Empirical Studies 297 induced traffic: additional trips in the study area made because of the improved level of service on both the new facility and old competing facilities. Noting the difficulty in separating the four factors, Frye expressed the opinion that little of the observed increase was due to induced traffic.
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From page 311... ...
298 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS with the percentage growth in control corridors. Three facilities examined by Pells are discussed in the following paragraphs.
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From page 312... ...
Review of Empirical Studies 299 Attraction of trips from other modes; Retiming of trips; and Generation of trips (trips that are entirely new or are made more frequently)
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From page 313... ...
300 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS Notwithstanding the relatively small increase in total traffic due to the tunnel opening, a significant increase in peak-period traffic was found.
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From page 314... ...
Review of Empirical Studies 301 were found during the first 10 years after the capacity increase. This means that if a segment's capacity is increased by 10 percent, traffic on that segment will increase by 3 to 4 percent during the first 10 years.
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From page 315... ...
302 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS account the types of traffic effects that are and are not reflected in the elasticities (i.e., the elasticities developed by Ruiter et al. represent the net effects on total highway system use, whereas the elasticities developed by Hansen et al.
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From page 316... ...
Review of Empirical Studies 303 When the network is operating, or is expected to operate, close to capacity, Where elasticity of demand with respect to travel cost is high, and Where implementation of a project causes large changes in travel costs. Two other areas of interest to this study were mentioned in the report.
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From page 317... ...
304 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS TABLE B-i Estimated Elasticities of VMT with Respect to Transportation Supply Measures (Ruiter et al.
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From page 318... ...
Review of Empirical Studies 305 ways affect traffic on state highways. However, to account for the possibility that the effect of increases in lane miles on state highways was merely to divert traffic from nonstate highways, the authors conducted some limited analyses using total VMT data; they tentatively concluded that the increases in traffic observed on state highways primarily represented new traffic and not diverted traffic.
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From page 319... ...
306 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS zone-to-zone travel volumes, times, and costs from the Boston area. These elasticities overstate the systemwide effects of travel time improvements because only part of the observed increase in zone-to-zone travel is composed of completely new trips (i.e., some of the observed increase is from changes in trip destinations)
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From page 320... ...
Review of Empirical Studies 307 The estimation and application of travel time elasticities is also subject to many practical problems, which are described in this report in Chapter 4. Notwithstanding these problems, travel time elasticities have been used to estimate potential induced traffic from highway capacity increases.
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From page 321... ...
308 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS REFERENCES ABBREVIATION SACTRA The Standing Advisory Committee on Trunk Road Assessment Bovy, P.H.L., A.L.
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From page 322... ...
Review of Empirical Studies 309 Kassoff, H., and D.S. Gendell.
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From page 323... ...
Appndix C Impact of Changes in Highway Capacity on Truck Travel LANCE R GRENZEBACK Cambridge Systematics, Inc.
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From page 324... ...
Impact of Changes in Highway Capacity 311 Over time, the truck driver, the motor carrier firm, and eventually the shipper will react to these changes by adjusting their travel behavior and changing their use of the highway system. They may reallocate their trips -- shifting the hour or day that a trip is made, changing the route, and changing the destination; or they may make new trips, take longer trips, and shift freight between truck and rail or truck and air.
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From page 325... ...
312 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS The conclusions rely heavily on empirical data from planning and policy studies and on anecdotal information from the freight and motor carrier industries. Although a large body of academic and applied research on many aspects of freight logistics and trucking exists, there is little on the topic of induced truck travel.
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From page 326... ...
TABLE C-i Large Trucks: 3+ Axles, Straight, or Combination (Grenzeback et al.
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From page 327... ...
314 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS pacity improvements planned for the next two decades will be marginal, at best, to the overall capacity of the existing system. The highway system is composed of 3.9 million mi of roads and streets and supports a highly developed truck freight system.
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From page 328... ...
Impact of Changes in Highway Capacity 315 trucks to congestion. Most truck travel is not exposed to severe congestion and therefore is not highly sensitive to marginal changes in travel time and travel reliability.
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From page 330... ...
Impact of Changes in Highway Capacity 317 and severe congestion) tended to have a lower percentage of large trucks (2.86 percent on average in Los Angeles)
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From page 331... ...
318 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS shifts, but tend to commute outside peak traffic hours. As with downtown stores, maintenance, cleaning, and restocking are done late at night or early in the morning, but truck deliveries are made during the midday off-peak period so that they do not interfere with the afternoon or evening sales periods.
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From page 332... ...
Impact of Changes in Highway Capacity 319 of United Parcel Service operations found that the cost of the parking tickets that its trucks received in downtown Boston during the day was five times greater than the cost the firm incurred on those routes because of traffic congestion (Warner and Wilson 1989)
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From page 333... ...
320 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS higher cost labor, materials, and land.6 The outsourcing of manufacturing and assembly work to Asia and Mexico and other Latin American countries depends on long, but relatively inexpensive, transportation supply lines to realize large savings on labor. Justin-time manufacturing and distribution substitute more frequent truck deliveries to factories and retail Stores to reduce the cost of carrying extra inventory.
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From page 334... ...
Impact of Changes in Highway Capacity 321 for intermodal container movements reportedly fell from $75 in 1980 to $47 in 1990, reflecting increases in productivity and strong competition among rail carriers for market share (21st Century Trucking: Profiles of the Future 1994, IV-1 and Figure IV-3)
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From page 335... ...
322 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS Reallocation of Truck Travel Changes in Travel Hour There is a paucity of data on truck travel by hour of the day State departments of transportation and metropolitan planning organizations take frequent vehicle and truck counts on major arterials, but this information is usually aggregated to the daily or annual level because the primary users of truck count data have been pavement and bridge design engineers who must estimate total axle-loadings on a yearly, not an hourly, basis. As a proxy for more comprehensive data, truck crossings at toll facilities provide some indication of truck travel patterns by time of day and their response to changes in highway capacity.
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From page 336... ...
_.e .4 r.. usL, IIjI..,me,iat 10 8 6 4 2 01 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I • I 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Hour of the Day ± 1985 All Commodities -- 9- 1991 All Commodities FIGURE C-2 Truck trips by hour for all eastbound crossings, 1985 and 1991, all commodities (Cambridge Systematics, Inc.
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From page 337... ...
324 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS affected would be carriers serving firms that have early morning delivery windows. Changes in Route Large trucks operate on a small number of routes in most metropolitan areas.
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From page 338... ...
I 287/87 Cross Westchester Ic 17 1-87 1-95 GWB Rte3 C8 :5 1-280 LT Northern Blvd l&9 HT * 00 U Evpwy .
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From page 340... ...
Impact of Changes in Highway Capacity 327 tributing, but not major, factor in corporate relocation decisions (Grenzeback and Warner 1994)
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From page 341... ...
328 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS carriers rely on overtime and temporary drivers (i.e., leasing trucks and using owner-operator drivers) to deal with short-term and seasonal congestion.
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From page 342... ...
Impact of Changes in Highway Capacity 329 One of the more successful examples has been the emergence of an "inland port" in Columbus, Ohio. Because of its central location in the eastern half of the United States and the freight capacity of the highways, rail lines, and airports serving the region, Columbus has developed into a centralized warehousing and distribution center for such major retailers as The Limited, Spiegel's, and Consolidated Stores.
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From page 343... ...
330 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS carriers, but the major consideration has been pressure to cut total transportation costs. The introduction of intermodal stack trains, especially double-stack trains, has cut the cost of moving a container long distance (more than 1,200 mi)
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From page 344... ...
Impact of Changes in Highway Capacity 331 tially during the next decades. Rail will continue to be the carrier of choice for the delivery of bulk products, such as coal to metropolitan power plants, and the intercity movement of low-value commodities, such as sand and gravel.
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From page 345... ...
332 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS yards by truck will be the least predictable link in the total trip. In each case local decisions about highway capacity and truck access will have a multiplier effect on freight travel times, costs, and economic activity far beyond the immediate roadway because they will affect an extended and, in most cases, time- and cost-sensitive shipment.
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From page 346... ...
impact of Changes in Highway Capacity 333 a multi-vehicle, rear-end or sideswipe collision with minor to moderate injury and property damage) , but may have little effect on the frequency of major truck accidents, which tend to occur during Uncongested off-peak periods.
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From page 347... ...
334 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAY.CAPACITY Duration (min) / Vehicle-Hours Type Location of Delay (vhd)
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From page 348... ...
Impact of Changes in Highway Capacity 335 The distribution of truck accidents and the relationship between truck accident rates and congestion levels appear to follow the general patterns just described with some significant variations: trucks are involved in more common accidents than cars because they are less maneuverable in congested conditions; they are involved in more accidents during the midday than cars because relatively more trucks operate during that time; and they are involved in more fatal accidents than cars because of their greater size and'weight. [The nationwide accident rate for trucks has dropped during the past decade.
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From page 349... ...
336 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS tial delay and economic costs of these incidents; however, the findings also suggest that increased highway capacity alone may do little to reduce the frequency of major truck accidents, both because fewer trucks operate during peak periods and because most major accidents occur at night or at midday when trucks operate at full speed. MODELING TRUCK TRAVEL There are many approaches, all relatively simple, to truck trip modeling.
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From page 350... ...
Impact of Changes in Highway Capacity 337 shippers and motor carriers in the region. This permits the Chicago Area Transportation Study, the metropolitan transportation agency, to model the impact of major changes in highway capacity (e.g., new roads, major widenings, truck access restrictions)
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From page 351... ...
338 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS is measured and forecast variously in tons, units, and value, forcing transportation and logistics planners to develop separate (and usually incompatible) models by commodity and carrier.
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From page 352... ...
Impact of Changes in Highway Capacity 339 develop truck trip tables or forego detailed analysis of the impacts of highway capacity on truck travel. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS in the short term changes in highway capacity are not likely to result in significant changes in truck travel.
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From page 353... ...
340 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS The public sector should take advantage of these internal economic pressures to accelerate the trucking industry's move toward more productive operations. Effective programs might include removal of physical and regulatory barriers within metropolitan areas that result in circuitous truck routes and excessive truck miles of travel, tax incentives to retire high-emission trucks, and training programs to introduce automated routing and dispatching programs to small trucking fleets as part of urban ITS programs.
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From page 354... ...
Impact of Changes in Highway Capacity 341 Economic behavior of trucking firms. How do motor carriers make truck routing and dispatching decisions and terminal location decisions?
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From page 355... ...
342 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS This follow-on study used the same sampling, video-taping, and classification methodology as the Urban Freeway Gridlock Study (Grenzeback etal.
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From page 356... ...
Impact of Changes in Highway Capacity 343 truck credentials (e.g., registration, operating authority, fuel tax permits, oversize-overweight permits) , automated weighing (weigh-in-motion)
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From page 357... ...
344 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS Cambridge Systematics, Inc.
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From page 358... ...
Appudix D Review of Studies of Transportation Investments and Land Use Key studies that attempt to link the effect of transportation investment on land use and urban form are reviewed in this appendix. The studies include major highway and rail investments in the United States and Canada.
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From page 359... ...
346 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS vestments on land use, the results of and problems with this study are summarized in detail in this section. Statistical techniques such as analysis of variance and multiple regression were used in the study to compare the presence or absence of beltways on a variety of measures of economic impact within metropolitan areas.
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From page 360... ...
Review of Studies of Transportation Investments 347 In cities without beltways, suburban and central-city employment in manufacturing grew at a comparable rate. However, no significant differences between beltway and nonbeitway cities were apparent during the 1972 to 1977 period.
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From page 361... ...
348 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS Major Capacity Expansions Recent analysis has suggested that expansion of major arterial highway capacity of several routes in California has induced additional traffic (Hansen et al.
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From page 362... ...
Review of Studies of Transportation Investments 349 which construction occurred, but did not cause an aggregate increase in development. For multifamily housing, the capacity expansions were associated with a one-time spurt in development, which then dissipated.
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From page 363... ...
350 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS MAJOR RAIL IN VESTMENTS Studies of the impact of large investments in transit, which are often viewed as encouraging denser development patterns, may also shed light on the land use impacts of major transportation investments. Several evaluations have been conducted on the development impacts of new rail transit lines and new rail systems in the United States.
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From page 364... ...
Review of Studies of Transportation Investments 351 in the declining areas of the old downtown (MWCOG 1983)
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From page 365... ...
352 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS tical analyses that control for other influences on development are mixed (Meyer and Gomez-Ibanez 1981)
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Review of Studies of Transportation Investments 353 Knight, R., and L Trygg.
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APPORdix I Minority Statement of Michael A Replogle The committee charged with evaluating the effects of added highway capacity on the environment and energy use has reviewed extensive literature and conducted numerous meetings in pursuit of consensus.
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Minority Statement of Michael A Replogle 355 do not know what the future might bring.
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356 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS way capacity, we are unlikely to have the ability to estimate the effects of changes in pricing, technology, or other system attributes. However, the report's lead finding in the Executive Summary concludes that "analytic methods in use are inadequate for addressing regulatory requirements [to assess the effects of added highway capacity on air quality]
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Minority Statement of Michael A Replogle 357 they find between "build -- no-build" scenarios when these are analyzed using deeply flawed models.
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358 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS capacity within a road pricing context. It is nonetheless arguable that higher motorist user fees and investments in public transportation and other alternatives would encourage earlier and greater energy and air pollution emissions reductions in a policy environment that limited, rather than accommodated, new highway capacity.
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Minority Statement of Michael A Replogle 359 mated vehicle speed limitation using intelligent transportation systems may also offer a promising future strategy and merits further investigation.
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360 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS communities. Performance-oriented federal funding for transportation could also play a useful role.
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Minority Statement of Michael A Replogle 361 in the do-something case as additional capacity is provided.
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362 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS travel demand) , which SACTRA finds unacceptable, is the same approach that in the United States produces differences between scenarios smaller than the error term of the models of which this report is critical.
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Minority Statement of Michael A Replogle 363 "Motor vehicle users paid openly for 53 to 69 percent of the social (public plus private)
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364 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS that alleviate bottlenecks may reduce some emissions and improve energy efficiency by reducing speed variation and smoothing traffic flows without risking large offsetting increases from new development and related traffic growth." In Chapter 6 the report states, "In central cities and other built-up areas these longer-term impacts [of stimulated travel demand] are likely to be small because the potential for development is limited." Although small capacity-expanding projects individually may have positive short-term effects on emissions, when many such projects are combined, the effects on latent traffic generation are likely to be significant, as the report acknowledges.
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Minority Statement of Michael A Replogle 365 travel demand and transportation system performance, emissions, and energy use.
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366 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS tions are much diluted. Instead of presenting LUTRAQ data on total travel or nonwork travel, which constitutes the vast majority of all trips, the report draws its conclusions principally from changes estimated for work trips.
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Minority Statement of Michael A Replogle 367 ventional highway-oriented development.
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368 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS Copenhagen Some regions have made these kinds of changes real. In Copenhagen, a city of 1.7 million people, road building was abandoned in the early 1970s, large numbers of bus priority lanes were introduced, and a comprehensive network of segregated cycle paths was built.
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Minority Statement of Michael A Replogle 369 bicycle path crossings.
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370 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS vidual vehicle emissions per mile traveled increase due to more aggressive acceleration, braking, and use of second gear, traffic calming will likely lead to overall emission reductions due to its influence on travel demand (see Table E-1)
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Minority Statement of Michael A Replogle 371 eliminating through-traffic in central areas and shifting short automobile trips in the central area to walking, bicycling, and public transportation, significantly reducing cold start and evaporative emissions.
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372 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS capacity significantly in the vicinity of the University of California (UC Davis) and the town center to increase walking and bicycle use.
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Minority Statement of Michael A Replogle 373 reductions for major pollutants on the order of one-quarter to onethird from 1990 baseline levels by attainment deadlines simply from continued vehicle fleet turnover and implementation of CAAArequired vehicular and fuel standards and enhanced vehicle inspection and maintenance programs.
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374 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS primarily from land use model projections that can be called into question. For example, the committee report discusses the relatively small changes (plus or minus a few percentage points)
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Minority Statement of Michael A Replogle 375 transportation-land use monitoring and performance measurement systems.
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376 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS on EPAs official models) , thus sustaining business as usual.
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Minority Statement of Michael A Replogle 377 Real Problems with Build -- No-Build As typically applied, the build -- no-build test assumes that building major new highways will have no effect on land use patterns, time of day of travel, and often even travel mode or choice of destinations.
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378 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS The committee report might have highlighted the short- and midterm fixes available to support better conformity analysis. Good discrete choice models based on recent surveys -- including total personal travel rather than just motor vehicle trips, with formal or informal accounting for the effects of highway capacity increases on land development, time of day of travel, mode and destination choice -- can be developed in any metropolitan region in the span of a year or two with an investment representing a fraction of the cost of a single freeway interchange.
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Minority Statement of Michael A Replogle 379 related to harder to estimate changes in vehicle speeds that are modified by highway investments.
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380 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS Harvey, G
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study committu BiographiGal loformation Paul E Peterson, Chairman, is Henry Lee Shattuck Professor of Government and Director of the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University.
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382 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS Paul E Benson is a Supervising Materials and Research Engineer for the California Department of Transportation and a registered civil engineer in California.
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Study Committee Biographical Information 383 David L Greene is a Senior Research Staff Member and Manager of the Energy Policy Research Programs of the Center for Transportation Analysis at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, which he joined in 1977.
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384 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS Edwin S Mills is Gary Rosenberg Distinguished Professor of Real Estate and Finance and Director of the Center for Real Estate Research in the Kellogg Graduate School of Management at Northwestern University Dr.
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Study Committee Biographical Information 385 Vice President, and Senior Associate and Transportation Engineer. Before that he was a Lecturer at the University of Arizona; Highway Engineer with the Highway Department in Santiago, Chile; Junior Traffic Engineer in Alameda, California; and Teaching Assistant at the University of Arizona.
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386 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS Kenneth E Suizer is Executive Director of the San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG)
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Study Committee Biographical Information 387 politics at the University of California at Santa Cruz. She is a member of the Air and Waste Management Association.
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The Transportation Research Board is a unit of the National Research Council, which serves the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering. The Board's purpose is to stimulate research concerning the nature and performance of transportation systems, to disseminate the information produced by the research, and to encourage the application of appropriate research findings.
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TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD National Research Council 2101 ConstitutionAvenue, N.W. Washington, D.C.
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Key Terms
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