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Statistical Issues in Defense Analysis and Testing Summary of a Workshop (1994) / Chapter Skim
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COMMUNICATING UNCERTAINTY TO DECISION MAKERS
Pages 19-22

The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
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From page 19...
... Suppose, though, that there is significant technical risk associated with the new system so that there is a substantial likelihood that the new system may fail to meet minimal standards of acceptable performance. This uncertainty about the performance of the new system could well change the decision about whether to begin development.
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From page 20...
... This is a guiding theme through the rest of the discussion. Practitioners of statistical analysis must remember that most decision makers are not familiar with technical statistical terms.
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From page 21...
... provides an entertaining and informative discussion of graphical methods for displaying complex quantitative data. Decision makers must realize, however, that they, too, must pay a substantial price to successfully incorporate uncertainty assessments into their thinking.
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From page 22...
... Decision makers may sometimes be reluctant to acknowledge uncertainty, because substantial uncertainty usually complicates the process of building consensus around a decision. But as technicians must look beyond the question "How big does n have to be?
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Key Terms

  • technical risk
  • decision maker
  • multiple analyses
  • quality movement
  • discuss explicit

  • recent experience
  • confidence intervals
  • assumptions result
  • risk associated
  • minimal standards

  • program evaluators
  • analyst gains
  • explicit modeling
  • unknown quantities
  • significant technical

  • meet minimal
  • recent advances
  • acknowledge uncertainty
  • sometimes useful
  • building consensus

  • package account
  • potential fallibility
  • information required
  • substantial price
  • operational test

  • statistical terms
  • inform decision
  • complex quantitative
  • forecasted performance
  • available models


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