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Appendix D: Demographic Projections of the Ph.D. Workforce in Biomedical and Behavioral Research, 1995-2005
Pages 72-98

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From page 72...
... By 2005 the median age among biomedical scientists is projected to have increased from 45.3 years to 46.2 years, and the median age among behavioral scientists will have risen more substantially from 48.8 years to 52.4 years. These projections rely on a variety of assumptions: trends in the numbers of Ph.D.
From page 73...
... S 1 1 Potential workforce | Not in the labor force | ~ ~ 1 Employed Unemployed |~ l Outside science FIGURE D-1 The potential Ph.D.
From page 74...
... TABLE D-1 Ph.D. Workforce by Employment Status, Plus Those Outside Science and Retired, by Major Field and Gender, 1995 Biomedical Ph.D.s Behavioral Ph.D.s Employment Status Male Female Male Female Employed 57,968 21,009 30,318 20,061 Unemployed 823 414 175 256 Not in labor force 1,097 1,672 466 1,048 Total potential workforce 59,888 23,095 30,959 21,365 Outside science 5,087 2,745 5,147 3,519 Retired 5,535 1,091 3,889 1,024 NOTE: The workforce is defined to exclude those outside of science and retired.
From page 75...
... Median ages are 46.5 years among male biomedical scientists, 42.4 years among females, 50.2 years among male behavioral scientists, 46.7 years among females. Since it is slightly older, the workforce in behavioral research could see proportionally more retirements and deaths over the next few decades than the workforce in biomedical research.
From page 76...
... ..... Female behavioral ,~~ \,, ~ I Female biomedical 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 Year FIGURE D-3 New Ph.D.
From page 77...
... residents at the time they received their degree increased from 5 6 National Research Council. Summary Report 1995: Doctorate Recipients from U.S.
From page 78...
... Instead, for projection purposes, the proportion of temporary visas will be assumed to stay at its 1990-96 average for each group defined by field and sex. This means that those on temporary visas will be projected at 24 percent among male biomedical research graduates, 18 percent among females, 16 percent among male behavioral research graduates, and 9 percent among females.
From page 79...
... A strong upward trend in total immigrants across all ages does appear over time in biomedical research, and an upward trend may also be possible in behavioral research (see Figure D-6. Depending on how growth is estimated and for which groups, the annual growth rate for immigrant Ph.D.s over the period 1981-90 is around 10 percent told percent, a trend that might be compared to the recently Biomedical Ph.D.s Behavioral Ph.D.s Employment Status Males Females Males Females Employed 5,471 2,147 355 407 Unemployed 135 176 0 0 Not in labor force 120 406 0 89 Total potential workforce 5,726 2,729 355 496 Outside science 1,413 605 1,330 380 Retired 471 71 0 60 SOURCE: Data are from the Survey of College Graduates.
From page 80...
... Averaging across periods suggests that 600 biomedical scientists and 100 behavioral scientists immigrate annually. In biomedical research, about two-thirds of these are under 35 years of age when they immigrate, in contrast to behavioral research, where only a third are under 35.
From page 81...
... For each group defined by major field and gender, the majority of Ph.D.s are employed at the beginning and end of each biennium. The next largest category includes those employed outside science, who make up 5 percent of such cases among biomedical Ph.D.s and 12 percent among behavioral Ph.D.s.
From page 82...
... (249,474) Female biomedical Ph.D.s Employed 74.6 0.9 0.9 2.1 0.1 0.3 78.9 Unemployed 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.6 Not in labor force 1.7 0.3 2.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.6 Outside science 3.7 0.3 0.2 3.5 0.0 0.0 7.7 Retired 0.8 0.9 0.1 0.2 3.9 0.0 5.9 Abroad 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.3 Total 82.0 2.7 3.8 6.0 4.2 1.4 100.0 Weighted casesb (58,676)
From page 83...
... ~ I , . , 50 art lonscience _ Scie_e ~~ 25-26 35-36 45-46 55-56 65-66 75-76 Age FIGURE D-8 Biennial shifts between science and conscience jobs by age group: behavioral scientists, 1985-95 averages.
From page 84...
... The workforce in biomedical research, which is 70 percent larger than that in behavioral research, is projected to grow more than three times as fast. The annual growth rate of the biomedical workforce over the period 1995-2005 is estimated at 3.4 percent in the medium projection and in the high and low projections at 4.4 and 2.2 percent.
From page 85...
... and females to increase (by 8,000~. Figures D- 11 and D- 12 show the composition of the workforce in each field in the medium projection, with males and females disaggregated among the employed, though not among the much smaller numbers of persons unemployed, not in the labor force, and outside science.
From page 86...
... 1 40,000 120,000 cD 1 00,000 c' ~ 80,000 . _ Q E 60,000 40,000 20,000 o Outside science Not in labor force Unemployed Employed female Employed male ,~9o ,~9` ~9~9 ~99~ 99~ 99~ 99~ 999 ~N Year FIGURE Dell Reported and projected Workforce by employment status and Ph.D.s outside science: biomedical scientists, 1985-2005.
From page 87...
... The final group in Figures Dell and D-12 shows those employed outside science, who are not considered part of the research workforce. As with those not in the labor force, their numbers increased sharply in the mid-199Os.
From page 88...
... Annual retirements will account for 1 percent of the Males 19851990 1995 2000 2005 Year 60-76 ~ 40-59 [I] 25-39 Females 1985 19901995 2000 2005 FIGURE D-13 Reported and projected age distribution of workforce: biomedical scientists, 1985-2005.
From page 89...
... The ratio of entering graduates to exiting retirees, therefore, varies from more than 8:1 among female biomedical scientists to 1:1 among male behavioral scientists. If, however, the greater numbers of graduates and rising immigration assumed in the high projection were to occur, the result would be significantly more growth a .
From page 90...
... Workforce and Ph.D.s Outside Science, Assuming High Trend in Graduates and Rising Immigration, 1995-2005 Biomedical Ph.D.s Behavioral Ph.D.s Male Female Male Female Outside Outside Outside Outside Year Workforce Science Workforce Science Workforce Science Workforce Science 1995 65,615 6,500 25,825 3,350 31,315 6,477 21,862 3,900 1996 67,704 5,933 27,798 3,362 31,214 6,285 22,638 4,190 1997 69,913 5,556 29,961 3,423 31,275 6,143 23,502 4,466 1998 72,123 5,337 32,252 3,534 31,379 6,016 24,415 4,723 1999 74,350 5,241 34,674 3,685 31,502 5,900 25,382 4,962 2000 76,599 5,240 37,228 3,866 31,635 5,797 26,398 5,184 2001 78,910 5,304 39,924 4,071 31,798 5,710 27,452 5,392 2002 81,300 5,413 42,783 4,300 32,001 5,635 28,559 5,595 2003 83,780 5,558 45,790 4,554 32,227 5,572 29,711 5,803 2004 86,356 5,732 48,957 4,835 32,453 5,504 30,898 6,022 2005 89,032 5,926 52,296 5,144 32,703 5,441 32,113 6,248 SOURCE: Data are from projections described in the text.
From page 91...
... labor force as a whole: 0.8 percent annually for males, 1.3 percent for females. aActual, for comparison.
From page 92...
... The numbers of graduates that would produce a constant workforce are well below those assumed in the previous projections (see Figures D-16 and D-17. Even the low projection predicts a larger number of graduates, except for behavioral scientists at the very end of the projection period.
From page 93...
... Changing immigration assumptions for behavioral scientists makes even less difference because immigrants are fewer. If the overall size of the workforce were to increase, the number of required graduates would naturally be higher than just estimated how much higher would depend on the growth rates.
From page 94...
... A similar representation of the behavioral research workforce considers fewer years, since it excludes earlier enrollment data that do not distinguish behavioral researchers from clinical psychologists (see Figure D19~. Both the medium projection of graduates and the fixed-growth projection provide figures that lie comfortably within the limits set by recent enrollments.
From page 95...
... . ~ ~ on O - - Fixed-growth projection 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Year FIGURE D-l9 Reported and projected graduates and limits set by enrollment lagged six years: behavioral scientists, 19942005.
From page 96...
... In particular, future forecasts of the research workforce would benefit from better information on employment outside science, immigration, foreign students, and the clinical research workforce. Historical trends in employment outside science cannot be thoroughly assessed due to data limitations, but some members of the Ph.D.
From page 97...
... for the high projection are as follows: Male biomedical scientists 12,438 - 307 y + 2.18 y2, R2 = 0.98 Female biomedical scientists 20,178-515y+3.42y2, R2=O.99 Male behavioral scientists 26,930 - 557 y + 2.99 y2, R2 = 0.84 Female behavioral scientists 10,071 - 221 y + 1.37 y2, R2 = 0.87 For behavioral scientists, the equations for the low projection are Male behavioral scientists 4,313 - 29 y _ 0.07 y2, R2 = 0.86 Female behavioral scientists -10,718 + 256 y + 1.35 y2, R2 = 0.93 97 For biomedical scientists the low projection is based on a constant number of graduates. For all groups the medium projection is the average of the high and the low projections.
From page 98...
... (1 - trj) , where tdj is the weighted proportion dying among those employed, unemployed, not in the labor force, and outside science (= edj, the proportions for all these groups being equal)


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