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Beyond Six Billion Forecasting the World's Population (2000) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 225-236

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From page 225...
... , 65,130, 135 see also Forecast length; Uncertainty Afghanistan, 126,163,168, 171 Africa, 2, 20,199, 200, 211 fertility, 53, 55, 68-69, 74, 76, 78 HIV/AIDS, 69,128,141, 174 migration, 158,160,161-162,173, 174 mortality, 24, 69, 124 see also Middle East; North Africa; SubSaharan Africa; specific countries Age structure, 1, 2, 3, 23,198 accuracy of projections, 4, 38, 4546, 47, 4849, 50-51, 148 China, 45 cohort-component method, 29, 30 developing countries, general, 23, 27, 28-29, 45 fertility, 23, 48, 57, 59, 72-73, 84(n.1)
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From page 226...
... Census Bureau Censuses, 12 age structures, 45 baseline error, 42 cohort-component method, 29 migration, 157(n.1) Children, see Infants; Young persons Chile, 124 China, 22-23, 208, 209 age structure, 45 fertility, 5, 33, 55, 67, 71, 77, 84, 85, 86, 87,105,194 migration, 158, 169, 183 mortality, 123-124, 125, 130, 142, 145, 148, 194 Climate, see Weather Cohorts, see Birth-cohort analysis Colombia, 72, 125 Communications technology, see Telecommunications Component rates, general, 29-30, 31, 46-50 see also Fertility; Growth rates; Migration; Mortality; Vital rates
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From page 227...
... , 171-172, 178, 184 see also Crisis mortality Diseases and disorders, 26, 47, 118, 119120, 122, 123, 124, 135-136, 148149, 188, 194 infertility, 69, 89-90, 104-105 migration, 174 transitional fertility, 59 see also HIV/AIDS; Medical science; Mortality East Asia and the Pacific, 21, 22, 211 age structure, 23 fertility, 54-55, 85 migration, 158-159 Eastern Europe, 211 fertility, 85, 101, 199 HIV/AIDS, 31 migration, 159, 161, 166-167, 169, 173 mortality, 8, 128, 194, 199 see also specific countries East Timor, 126 Economic factors, 3 cohort-component method, 30-31 fertility, 5, 6, 25, 57-63 (passim) , 70-76 (passim)
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From page 228...
... , 91, 92-93, 94-95(n.12) birth order, 6, 92, 94, 96-98, 103, 106 China, 5, 33, 55, 67, 71, 77, 84, 85, 86, 87, 105, 194 cohort-component method, 29-30, 31 country-level forecasts, general, 39, 56, 63-64, 75-76, 87-91 definitional issues, 24, 83 developing countries, general, 5, 85 abortion, 5, 57 contraception, 5, 56-57, 61, 62, 69 migration, 172-173 rep la cement, 24-25 , 64 transitional, 34, 53-78 East Asia, 54-55, 85 Eastern Europe, 85, 101, 199 economic factors, 5, 6, 25, 57-63 (passim)
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From page 229...
... Social Security Administration Greece, 87, 166 Growth rates, vii, 19, 206 age structure, 27-29 defined, 24 developing countries, 22 forecast length, 42 historical perspectives, 15, 17-19, 24, 42 industrial countries, 22 Malthusian theory, 15, 31 regional, 20, 22, 24 see also Fertility; Migration; Mortality; Population momentum Guinea, 162
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From page 230...
... , 164 Immigration and emigration, see Migration Immigration Reform and Control Act, 164(n.5) , 165 India, 22-23, 209 age structure, 45 INDEX fertility, 5, 67 migration, 171, 172 mortality, 125 Indonesia, 22, 59, 71,125, 209 Industrial countries, 2,12, 211 accuracy of projections, 44, 49, 90-91, 132, 135, 177 age structure, 28, 114, 115-116,119,120, 121-122 elderly persons, 2, 121-122 fertility, 2, 5, 11,13, 53, 67, 84, 85, 86, 195, 204-206 migration and, 172-173 posttransition, 6, 83-108,190 growth rate, 22 migration, 49, 158, 159, 160, 161, 167, 170, 172-173, 177, 179-180 mortality, 7, 8,115,117-123,125,128, 132, 135, 139 regional projections, 2, 20, 21, 22 standards of living, 119,124,170-171, 183 see also specific countries and regions Infants, 4, 45, 51 mortality, 48, 57, 63, 72, 114, 120, 125, 127 Influenza, 119,128,143, 147 International Conference on Population and Development, 74 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
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From page 231...
... , 171-172, 178, 184 defined, 184 developing countries, general, 158,159, 161, 169, 172-173, 183, 184 disease factors, 174
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From page 232...
... , 114(n.1) developing countries, general, 115, 117, 118, 123-127, 132-133, 135, 139141 Eastern Europe, 8, 128, 194, 199 economic factors, 7, 8, 47, 123, 127, 128, 135, 141-143, 149 fertility and, 57-58, 62, 63, 76, 126-127, 194, 199
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From page 233...
... New Zealand, 20 accuracy of projections, 44, 132 fertility, 84, 85, 86, 87 migration, 156, 160 mortality, 132 Nigeria, 22, 45, 55, 68, 70, 130, 209 North Africa, 21, 22 accuracy of projections, 44, 48, 132 fertility, 54, 55 migration, 48, 158, 161, 162 mortality, 116, 132-133 see also specific countries Northern America, 20, 21, 22, 199, 200, 211 age structure, 45 fertility, 53, 84, 85, 86 migration, 27, 159, 160, 161, 173 transitional fertility, 53, 84, 85, 86 see also Canada; United States of America Norway, 45(n.12) Nutrition, 7, 24, 118, 120, 141 see also Food supply and demand Older persons, see Elderly persons Opportunity costs, 6, 98, 100, 106 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 167 Pakistan, 22, 71, 75, 171 Philippines, 75, 171 Poland, 167 Political factors and policy, 3, 188-189 fertility, 6-7, 33, 69, 70-71, 87, 98, 101104, 107 family planning programs, 56-57, 61, 69, 71, 73-74, 76, 78 migration, 9, 164, 165, 166, 167, 169, 170, 171, 172, 178-179, 182, 184 mortality, 8, 32, 128, 137, 141-143 see also Family planning; Government role Population momentum, 3, 24, 27-29 defined, 27 Portugal, 166
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From page 234...
... , 69, 7071, 72, 75, 76, 78, 87, 92(n.10) , 93, 98, 101-102, 107, 108, 172 migration, 60, 160-161, 172, 173-174, 179, 180-181, 183 mortality, 7, 127, 141-143 uncertainty, 32, 188, 189, 198-199 see also Economic factors; Educational attainment; Gender factors; Political factors and policy; Standards of living Social Security Administration, see u.s.
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From page 235...
... , 16, 17, 3234, 135, 188-216 country-level forecasts, general, 197, 202-203, 206, 208-210, 214, 216 economic factors, 32, 188, 198-199 family planning, 33 gender factors, 32, 191, 197 historical perspectives, 32-33, 194-195 HIV/AIDS, 194, 195, 199, 201 medical science, 32, 33 migration, 156, 178, 190, 192-193; see also migration under Disasters and crises modeling, 34, 198, 214, 215 mortality, 32, 139-141, 147-148, 188, 196, 201, 202, 206; see also Crisis mortality social and cultural factors, 32, 188, 189, 198-199 U.N., 10, 188, 197, 198, 199, 200, 203, 204, 206, 207, 209, 212-213, 214; see also Variants (U.N.) vital rates, 191-192, 198-199 World Bank, 190, 197, 204, 207 see also Accuracy of projections; Probability distributions; ~ .
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From page 236...
... , 15-16(n.1) , 19, 33, 75, 88, 129, 190 migration, 190, 192-193 mortality, 129, 190 see also Scenarios INDEX Venezuela, 163, 164 Vital rates cohort-component method, 30 scenarios, 191-192 uncertainty, 191-192, 198-199 see also Fertility; Growth rates; Migration; Mortality Vital registration, 12, 77,122 Weather, mortality and, 118,128,194 see also Famine Western Europe, 2,16, 20, 21, 22, 24, 211 age structure, 28, 45,136 fertility, 53, 84, 85, 86,199 migration, 8, 27,159,161,164,165-66, 170, 172, 173 mortality, 116,118,119,136, 199 see also specific countries Women, see Fertility; Gender factors World Bank, vii, 1, 4, 11, 16, 17-18, 38(n.3)
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Key Terms

  • industrial countries
  • gender factors
  • forecast length
  • census bureau
  • cultural factors

  • elderly persons
  • middle east
  • eastern europe
  • family planning
  • regional projections

  • political factors
  • population momentum
  • replacement fertility
  • baseline data
  • security administration

  • specific countries
  • age structures
  • latin america
  • planning programs
  • sex differences

  • lder persons
  • population projection
  • caribbean region
  • bureau census
  • developing countries

  • world bank
  • growth rates
  • historical perspectives
  • economic factors
  • medical science


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