Beyond Six Billion Forecasting the World's Population (2000) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix A: Computer Software Packages for Projecting Population
Appendix A: Computer Software Packages for Projecting Population
Pages 237-253
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This appendix lists various computer software packages for this purpose. Many of these packages claim to be user-friendly but still require basic knowledge of population dynamics and demographic techniques.
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in 2000 and applies assumed fertility rates for the period 2000-2005 specific to women of each age. The births must then be divided between males and females, using an assumed sex ratio at birth; deaths must again be estimated and subtracted; and migrants if any at these young ages must be added or subtracted, to give males and females aged 0-4 in 2005.
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Population Division to produce the global population projections in its biannual reports entitled World Population Prospects. It uses the cohort-component method to project population by age and sex every 5 years based on data and assumptions provided by the user.
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incorporates routines to project population, households, school enrollments, employment, income, consumption and savings, and government expenditures, as described in the manual Projection Methods for Integrating Population Variables into Development Planning. The user can produce interrelated projections for these sectors.
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Data needed: Date of base population and end year of projection Sex ratio at birth Base population by sex and 5-year age groups Current and projected total and age-specific fertility rates Life expectancy at birth by sex Model life table (optional) Output: Population projections displayed on screen in tabular form or saved in ASCII format Requirements: DOS 2.1 and 1.3 MB free disk space Price: US$130.00 (for MORTPAK-LITE)
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Crude demographic rates Life expectancy at birth and at age 15, infant and under-5 mortality rates, complete life-table values Total fertility, net and gross reproduction rates, births to women of different age groups Dependency ratios If desired, projected population by single years of age bv single calendar vears or both or Projections cat ~ )
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Base population, by 5-year or single-year age groups Mortality data: from abridged or unabridged life tables; Coale-Demeny model life-table life expectancy; life expectancy to hit by interpolation or extrapolation; deaths, as available, by sex and age Fertility data: total fertility; age-specific fertility rates (by 5-year or single-year age groups) ; births (optionally by age of mother as well as totals by sex)
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Population measures: by 5-year, single-year, or special age groups; median age and dependency ratios Vital rates and events: births by age of mother; total fertility; age-specific fertility rates; deaths by age and sex; crude birth and death rates; life tables Net migration rates and numbers, international and internal, by age and sex Requirements: DOS or Windows Price: Free Developed by: Peter D Johnson, International Programs Center, U.S.
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Results can be presented in tabular and graphical forms, with the graphs showing total populations or moving age pyramids. Data needed: Base-year population by age and sex Age-specific fertility rates, base year and projected Age- and sex-specific mortality rates, base year and projected Net migrants by age and sex, base year and projected Other age- and sex-specific transition rates, base year and projected (optional, for multistate projections)
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model life table Age distribution of fertility, either a model table or the distribution for each year, or the distribution for the base year only, in which case the Coale-Trussell model is applied Sex ratio at birth Output: International migration (annual number of migrants by sex and 5-year age groups) Population size by age and sex Total fertility rate, gross reproduction rate, net reproduction rate, mean age of childbearing, and child-woman ratio Life expectancy, infant mortality rate, under-5 mortality rate Births, deaths, deaths by age, crude birth rate, crude death rate, rate of natural increase, annual population growth rate, doubling time Sex ratio, dependency ratio, median age, population of any specified age group, population pyramids Requirements: At least a 486 PC, Windows 3.1, and 8MB free disk space Price: Free Developed by: The Futures Group International Contact: Kay Willson The Futures Group International 80 Glastonbury Blvd.
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694-3365 Fax: (914) 694-3368 E-mail: support~hpntech.com http: / /www.visitus.com/popsite/software/fivfiv/ IPSS, the Interactive Population Statistical System, is an analytic tool for the Apple Macintosh computer to explore interactive population dynamics, forward and reverse population projections, and life-table programs.
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Both tabular and graphic output can be pasted directly into spreadsheet or word processing programs and automatically converted to numeric data. Data needed: Base population by sex and age Age-specific fertility rates Age- and sex-specific survival rates Age- and sex-specific migration rates (optional)
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Requirements: Windows 95 or 98 Price: Euro 175.00 Developed by: Evert van Imhoff, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) Evert van Imhoff Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI)
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produces predictive distributions for future population using stochastic simulation. It requires, as input, point forecasts for age-specific fertility, mortality, and migration, as well as a specified covariance structure of forecast error.
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The program uses the Lee-Tuljapurkar fertility model based on age-specific fertility rates from 1917-1995 and the Lee-Carter model of mortality based on age-specific death rates from 1900-1995. Historical mortality and life table values can be viewed over age and time.
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Separate modules allow the user to project mortality and fertility rates by cohort. Data needed: Depends on type of projection and options selected Output: Depends on type of projection selected; interface with Excel is available.
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McGirr, N., and S Rutstein 1988 Comparison of microcomputer programs for making population projections: An update.
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