Beyond Six Billion Forecasting the World's Population (2000) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix C: Predicting the Pace of Fertility Decline
Appendix C: Predicting the Pace of Fertility Decline
Pages 303-314
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From page 303... ...
Instead, this exercise attempts to directly predict the future pace of decline from variables measurable a priori, replicating some earlier analysis in Bos and Bulatao (1990~. Three stages in fertility transition are distinguished: the pretransition and early-transition stage, the midtransition stage, and the late transition stage (as replacement-level fertility is approached and possibly breached)
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From page 304... ...
Industrial and developing countries are distinguished in the table. The two groups were combined in the analysis, except for analysis of late-transition fertility change, for which only developing countries were used.
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From page 305... ...
In pre- and early transition it also appears slower. However, the picture changes if one leaves out pretransitional developing countries.
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From page 306... ...
306 o ~ .= cn 5- ~ :~ cn V)
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From page 307... ...
ity falls, female education rises, and urbanization increases as one moves from early transition to midtransition to late transition. Correlations between fertility change in specific periods, for developing countries only, are shown in Table C-3.
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From page 308... ...
If this is done, the rate of change in total fertility, whatever its initial level in the first period, eventually reverts toward what might be considered an equilibrium rate of -0.06 points annually. That is, fertility in a country with a faster rate of change than this will on average see fertility change slow down, whereas a country with a slower rate will subsequently see it speed up.
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From page 309... ...
The unexpected effect of date again appears, and the effect of initial infant mortality level is also perverse, with higher infant mortality being related to faster fertility decline. DISCUSSION The central conclusion from the analysis of the midtransition is that the pace of fertility decline is in fact partly predictable from immediately preceding decline.
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From page 310... ...
310 O ~ ~ ON — ~ ~ o ~ oo ~ ~ ~ o 1 1 1 ~ o ~ I ~ Ol O c 5._, bC V)
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From page 311... ...
Rather the earlier rate of fertility decline already incorporates their effects, particularly the effect of infant mortality (which would be significant if previous fertility decline was not in the equation)
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From page 314... ...
Perhaps this is because the number of developing countries at this stage is too small to permit useful analysis. It may also result, however, from the fact that late transition trends are being predicted partly from midtransition trends; the distinction is difficult to make cleanly.
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