Skip to main content

Beyond Six Billion Forecasting the World's Population (2000) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:

Appendix D: The Effect of Projection Error in Life Expectancy
Pages 315-317

The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.


From page 315...
... Could mortality errors nevertheless affect some other projected demographic parameters more severely? We consider this question by simulating projections of two hypothetical countries.
Read the entire page →
From page 316...
... the alternative is a life expectancy, after 50 years, of 81.95, or 4.7 years below the value in the base projection. Each error scenario involves underestimating future life expectancy, the most common type of error in past projections.
Read the entire page →

Key Terms

  • errors appear
  • error scenario
  • projected life
  • projected population
  • dependency ratio

  • future life
  • underestimating future
  • results suggest
  • proportional error
  • true course

  • table confirms
  • expectancy error
  • total fertility
  • scenarios represent
  • scenario involves

  • hundred workers
  • base scenario
  • projected death
  • initial total
  • percentage distributions

  • projected age
  • projected birth
  • assumed life
  • demographic trends
  • females combined

  • mean error
  • past projections
  • initial combined
  • base scenarios
  • nevertheless affect


    • This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
    More information on Chapter Skim is available.