Beyond Six Billion Forecasting the World's Population (2000) / Chapter Skim
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Posttransition Fertility
Posttransition Fertility
Pages 83-113
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From page 83... ...
lust as fertility varies by a fair amount across today's low-fertility countries, those countries currently in transition are also likely eventually to experience varying, albeit generally low, fertility levels. · In all countries, once low fertility levels are reached, further fertility change is largely indeterminate.
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From page 84... ...
For the industrial countries, fertility decline has been more moderate. These countries include the only 11 countries that had low fertility in 1950.
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85 o :^ o o o o cn U)
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SOURCE: Data from United Nations (1999~. Nevertheless, the industrial countries also show relatively substantial fertility decline, as well as some heterogeneity.
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PROJECTED FERTILITY TRENDS Figure 4-1 also shows the trends the U.N. projects for future fertility in low-fertility countries.
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From page 88... ...
In a few cases in which recent fertility declines have been particularly rapid, fertility is allowed to dip below the replacement level before returning to that level. Once the replacement level is reached, fertility stays at that level, although it continues to vary slightly as mortality changes.
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From page 89... ...
Of the 15 countries with moderately high levels of fertility (3.5-4.4) in 1950-1955, all but one moved to lower fertility, with most achieving low fertility under 2.5 by 1990-1995.6 The one exception was Gabon, where 6The three countries whose fertility declined only into the intermediate range (2.5-3.4)
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From page 90... ...
8This upward bias does go together with greater precision, given that fertility at low levels varies within a narrower range. Absolute error in projected total fertility averages 0.29 in 10-year projections and 0.41 in 20-year projections, as contrasted with 0.57 and 0.79 at higher initial fertility levels See Table 3-1~.
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From page 91... ...
At least as important for improving projections, however, is understanding the characteristics of fertility trends and the reasons for them. INTERPRETING FERTILITY TRENDS At low fertility levels, fertility trends have had three important characteristics.
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From page 92... ...
Although we anticipate that fertility in demographically advanced developing countries will have similar characteristics, these countries have not been at such levels long, so relevant data are limited. Period Versus Cohort Effects Changes in post-1950 fertility in industrial countries were largely period-driven.
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From page 93... ...
Despite this evidence, many forecast agencies in industrial countries, while acknowledging the importance of period effects, also monitor cohort fertility. For instance, some extrapolate completed cohort fertility, in addition to total fertility.
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From page 94... ...
In contrast, a quantum effect, a change in the total number of children couples are having, will not be offset later on and could mean a permanent change in family sizes. For industrial countries with relevant data, shifts toward later ages at childbearing have been pervasive since the 1960s.
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From page 95... ...
Any other change can be interpreted as a quantum change. The Bongaarts-Feeney method depends on two assumptions: that age-specific fertility changes are period-driven, and cohort effects can be ignored; and that fertility rates by age and birth order, computed as births of that order relative to all women of a given age, irrespective of their achieved parities, are suitable quantum indicators for the period.
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From page 96... ...
In the early 1990s, tempo effects depressed observed total fertility to 2.06, while adjusted total fertility stood at 2.18. This pattern, common for industrial countries in the 1990s, indicates that a significant part of the recent declines in fertility can be attributed to timing shifts, i.e., temporary declines resulting from a rising age at childbearing.
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From page 97... ...
The reduction in higher-order births is pervasive and essentially universal. It can be demonstrated for all other industrial countries with such data (and has also been an important component of fertility declines in East and Southeast Asia Leete, 1987~.
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From page 98... ...
Socioeconomic Change and Destabilization Fertility reductions to low levels are partly a continuation of the fertility transition and are attributable to the same factors that produced the transition: increased chances of child survival, the rising direct and opportunity costs of children, and the growing acceptability of fertility control and smaller families (see Chapter 3~. While the factors may be the same, at low fertility levels, calculations of the costs and benefits of children may have a specific cast.
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The universality of the retreat from marriage may be mitigated, however, by increasing numbers of nonmarital unions, virtually inevitable if large proportions of sexually active adults remain unmarried. The crucial question is whether these unions also result in nonmarital births.
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If women have increasing opportunities in education and employment but find these opportunities severely limited by parenthood, then fertility levels may drop substantially (McDonald, 2000~. Contemporary Italy and Spain provide examples of countries where women's education and employment have increased dramatically in the past two decades.
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From page 101... ...
POSSIBLE POLICY RESPONSES At these low fertility levels, public policy has not played a deliberate role in fertility trends, but it could have an important role in the future. The effects of low fertility may eventually become sufficiently compelling for societies to attempt to take action.
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From page 102... ...
We do not intend to evaluate the arguments about the benefits and costs of children here, merely to note the possibility that these arguments may lead to future policy initiatives in demographically advanced countries that seek to raise fertility, or at least set a floor under fertility levels. Could such initiatives, were they instituted on a sufficient scale, succeed?
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From page 103... ...
Policies such as these contribute to a social setting that supports multiple roles for women and reduces the conflict they feel between raising a family and pursuing other interests. As argued earlier, such a setting appears to facilitate slightly higher fertility, closer to two children per woman, in some industrial countries.
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· Proception. A potentially more significant issue for fertility levels in industrial countries, however, is the technology of proception (Miller, 1986)
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From page 105... ...
Sex selection is relevant for fertility levels in such low-fertility developing countries as China and South Korea and could become important elsewhere. In the absence of sex selection, a strong preference for sons or daughters can increase fertility substantially, as couples have more children in order to reach their desired quota (Bongaarts and Potter, 1983:Chapter 9~.
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From page 106... ...
The fertility impact of such technology is not easily assessed. CONCLUSIONS Future Levels and Trends We began by asking where fertility is headed in the 21st century, both among developing countries as they complete their fertility transitions and among industrial countries.
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The fertility response depends partly on fertility preferences, since policies that facilitate the achievement of preferences are much more likely to be successful than policies that attempt to reshape preferences. The importance of preferences is likely to grow in the future, given improvements in contraceptive and proceptive technology.
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From page 108... ...
Given the increasing importance of sequential unions, we need to know more about the possibly offsetting effects of fertility reduction due to time spent outside unions and fertility increase due to the desire for additional children in new unions. Studies are needed to assess the impact and costs of various fertilityenhancing mechanisms that governments could consider if they become concerned about the adverse consequences of low fertility.
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From page 109... ...
Watkins 1996 Social interactions and contemporary fertility transitions. Population and Development Review 22:639-682.
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1996 Fertility, family, and social policy in contemporary Western Europe. Population and Development Review 22~4~:729-739.
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Surkyn 1988 Cultural dynamics and economic theories of fertility change. Population and Development Review 14~1~:1-45.
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Morgan 2000 How do marriage and female labor force participation affect fertility in low fertility countries? Paper prepared for the Annual Meetings of the Population Association of America, Los Angeles, Calif., March 23-25.
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Zeng, Y 1996 Is fertility in China in 1991-92 far below replacement level?
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