Skip to main content

Currently Skimming:

3 Developing, Enhancing, and Maintaining Numerical Forecast Capability in the U.S.
Pages 24-42

The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.


From page 24...
... still plays the central role In the provision of operational weather data and services in this nation. It is responsible for the maintenance of the fundamental observing networks, the core forecasting infrastructure, and the provision of severe weather and flood warnings necessary for the protection of life and property.
From page 25...
... , which has the major responsibility for implementing and operating the numerical weather and climate prediction models that serve as the basis of modern forecasting operations. Both government and private sector activities use EMC products.
From page 26...
... These concerns were pointed out as major shortcomings in the Dorman report: The danger signs at EMC include lack of effective prioritization processes, insufficient base funding which compounds the work allocation problem, and an insular concept of operations that fails to adequately access the national talent and resource base (Dorman, 19991. NCEP management clearly recognizes the value of the Dorman report recommendations, and they indicated to BASC that many of the criticisms are being addressed.
From page 27...
... ~~ The ETA model is the operational mesoscale numerical weather prediction model used at EMC. It derives its name from the coordinate system used in the model architecture.
From page 28...
... The skill score, an objective measure of accuracy of the numerical forecasts, of the NCEP 500-hPa 36-hour forecast has been tracked from the beginning of operational numerical weather prediction in 1955. The major improvements in accuracy were associated with the major changes in computational power available for the models.
From page 29...
... EMC needs to benefit more from the active involvement of the community in the design, testing, implementation, and evaluation of new models, something that EMC management has recognized from their ongoing work with the broader meteorological community in generating the next generation weather prediction model (Lord, 19991. The ability to encourage researchers from other agencies to spend periods of weeks to months at EMC is important in leveraging national investments in research.
From page 30...
... While testing using the diverse examples characteristic of operational use revealed some areas of weakness, the new mode! resulted in a major improvement of operational hurricane forecasts with the largest reduction in track prediction error obtained in many years.
From page 31...
... There are many examples of this, including use of model output as observational surrogates in those regions where the observational network does not permit detailed analysis of weather, use of "ridded surface meteorology over the ocean in deploying instrumented buoys and ships, and use of atmospheric variability measures to assess changes in the temperature, salinity, and velocity structure of the upper ocean. The NWP mode!
From page 32...
... capability may lag for a period, it will then leapfrog current vector machine capability. However, the EMC transition to this architecture occurred before the software and model programming expertise required to ensure efficient utilization was available.
From page 33...
... Insufficient computational resources prevent simultaneous testing of new mode] versions while operational forecasts proceed.
From page 34...
... 2. The lack of greater understanding of societal benefits and economic impacts of forecast products limits effective decisions in resource allocations.
From page 35...
... The sense of the recommendations that follow is very similar to that of Recommendation 4 from the 'Road Map report' of the National Weather Service Modernization Committee; however, they focus on NCEP and EMC rather than the more general NWS-wide nature of the Road Map recommendation (NRC, 1999c)
From page 36...
... The test facility could also facilitate the archiving of operational products in real time, make them available to researchers, and transition successful experimental projects such as Reanalysis, Seasonal to Interannual Prediction, and the GEWEX/GCIP Land Data Assimilation System into regular operational execution.
From page 37...
... NCEP should expand this review to include external users as well. NOAA should provide the computational resources on the development side to simultaneously perform test simulations, reprocessing, and ongoing operational forecasts.
From page 38...
... also clearly defines the nature of the human resource problems in an operational enterprise, an issue which will be exacerbated with any expansion of the forecast products. Added Requirements to Serve Future Needs 3.
From page 39...
... Similarly, the NWS Techniques Development Laboratory develops user products through techniques such as Mode! Output Statistics, which improve the utility of the forecasts by correcting error bias and relating model output variables to variables of user interest such as visibility.
From page 40...
... began a major modernization program in 1989. Before the modernization, the NOAA weather radars were using vacuum tubes that were no longer manufactured in the United States and replacements were being obtained from the former Soviet Union.
From page 41...
... The air-sea interaction and coupled ocean-atmosphere-land climate communities can contribute research results to the EMC mission. Management Changes with Little Associated Costs 7.
From page 42...
... In NOAA, this transfer responsibility is currently assigned in an ad hoc fashion, a situation that frustrates effective transfer both within NOAA and between other agencies and NOAA. In contrast, DOD designates responsibility for transfer to a particular person in its research and development process.


This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More information on Chapter Skim is available.